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2028 forecast · Missouri · Democratic primary

Missouri Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 82% of runs
31.6%Harris's projected share
756,405Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Harris31.6%238,76682%20.4%
Buttigieg16.0%121,1274%7.7%
Newsom12.4%93,7115%8.5%
Ocasio-Cortez11.7%88,2402%7.6%
Ossoff9.9%74,9166%8.5%
Kelly3.8%28,6021%6.2%
Shapiro2.5%19,056<1%4.8%
Beshear0.7%5,451<1%4.4%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Missouri votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
ButtigiegHarris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Missouri
Progressive37%
Working class and union19%
Institutional15%
Democratic leaning independents13%
Civil rights coalition7%
Moderate independents3%

Black 22.7%, Hispanic 4.3%, Asian and other 3%, under 30 12.5%, 65 and up 29.9%, college graduates 38.7%, women 54.6%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 666,112 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 756,405 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
St. Louis County174,006Harris42.0%Ossoff12.1%
Jackson County108,036Harris46.2%Ossoff11.5%
St. Charles County55,638Buttigieg24.2%Harris18.0%
St. Louis County48,444Harris63.7%Ossoff9.9%
Clay County34,275Harris21.6%Buttigieg20.2%
Greene County33,237Buttigieg23.0%Ocasio-Cortez18.9%
Boone County25,751Buttigieg23.7%Harris19.2%
Jefferson County23,886Buttigieg22.9%Ocasio-Cortez18.7%
Platte County15,547Buttigieg23.5%Harris18.2%
Cass County13,278Harris21.0%Buttigieg20.7%
Jasper County10,490Buttigieg21.4%Ocasio-Cortez18.4%
Franklin County10,405Buttigieg23.8%Harris17.2%
Cole County9,567Harris26.0%Buttigieg18.9%
Christian County9,314Buttigieg26.8%Ocasio-Cortez16.3%
Cape Girardeau County8,470Harris22.7%Buttigieg20.4%
Buchanan County8,226Harris25.0%Buttigieg18.1%
Lincoln County5,642Buttigieg20.1%Harris20.0%
St. Francois County5,340Harris23.2%Buttigieg18.9%
Johnson County5,034Harris20.9%Buttigieg20.4%
Newton County5,012Buttigieg22.2%Ocasio-Cortez19.2%
Taney County4,700Buttigieg22.9%Harris18.1%
Camden County4,539Buttigieg24.9%Harris16.6%
Callaway County4,376Harris21.0%Buttigieg19.1%
Phelps County3,852Buttigieg25.3%Harris16.3%
Warren County3,697Buttigieg21.8%Harris18.7%
Pettis County3,645Harris22.3%Buttigieg19.2%
Pulaski County3,504Harris33.4%Newsom12.8%
Scott County3,430Harris32.1%Buttigieg14.5%
Webster County3,274Buttigieg21.4%Harris19.9%
Lafayette County3,257Buttigieg23.1%Harris18.2%
Stone County3,169Buttigieg25.4%Harris16.2%
Butler County3,093Harris26.4%Buttigieg16.7%
Lawrence County2,977Buttigieg21.5%Harris18.9%
Howell County2,953Buttigieg22.8%Harris18.6%
Laclede County2,653Buttigieg21.9%Harris19.3%
Barry County2,627Buttigieg20.9%Harris19.7%
Polk County2,621Buttigieg23.2%Harris17.6%
Marion County2,504Harris22.6%Buttigieg19.9%
Randolph County2,158Harris27.8%Buttigieg16.6%
Adair County2,139Buttigieg27.6%Ocasio-Cortez16.6%
Ray County2,122Buttigieg21.0%Harris19.6%
Audrain County2,093Harris26.9%Buttigieg16.5%
Clinton County2,078Buttigieg23.3%Harris17.9%
Saline County2,054Harris24.4%Buttigieg16.0%
Miller County2,027Buttigieg22.7%Harris18.8%
Stoddard County1,983Buttigieg22.1%Harris19.7%
Henry County1,934Buttigieg21.5%Harris19.7%
Nodaway County1,918Buttigieg23.6%Harris18.3%
Dunklin County1,850Harris31.8%Buttigieg14.3%
Ste. Genevieve County1,843Buttigieg20.4%Harris19.1%
Texas County1,838Harris25.2%Buttigieg17.8%
Cooper County1,837Harris26.3%Buttigieg17.0%
Andrew County1,808Buttigieg25.3%Harris16.4%
Benton County1,785Buttigieg21.6%Harris19.6%
Crawford County1,750Buttigieg21.1%Harris20.1%
Washington County1,643Harris23.3%Buttigieg19.2%
Morgan County1,603Buttigieg22.3%Harris18.6%
Perry County1,591Buttigieg23.7%Harris18.1%
Vernon County1,494Buttigieg22.0%Harris19.5%
New Madrid County1,460Harris41.5%Newsom10.4%
Pike County1,460Harris28.1%Buttigieg15.7%
McDonald County1,446Harris20.9%Buttigieg20.0%
Bates County1,409Harris23.2%Buttigieg18.5%
Pemiscot County1,362Harris59.1%Ossoff9.4%
Dallas County1,329Buttigieg22.0%Harris18.5%
Gasconade County1,328Buttigieg22.1%Harris19.1%
Macon County1,318Buttigieg21.2%Harris20.4%
Wright County1,275Buttigieg21.9%Harris19.5%
Moniteau County1,242Harris23.7%Buttigieg18.1%
Livingston County1,228Harris23.5%Buttigieg19.1%
Osage County1,139Buttigieg25.6%Harris16.4%
Cedar County1,094Buttigieg23.1%Harris18.5%
Mississippi County1,087Harris56.7%Ossoff9.7%
Douglas County1,080Buttigieg20.6%Harris19.3%
Dent County1,061Buttigieg22.6%Harris19.0%
Howard County1,034Harris23.5%Buttigieg19.6%
Montgomery County998Buttigieg22.3%Harris19.3%
Ralls County982Harris21.2%Buttigieg20.8%
Linn County979Buttigieg22.5%Harris19.1%
Madison County903Buttigieg22.8%Harris18.9%
DeKalb County893Harris33.1%Buttigieg13.8%
Barton County887Buttigieg22.9%Harris18.5%
Bollinger County880Harris20.7%Buttigieg20.6%
Wayne County847Buttigieg20.6%Harris19.3%
Ripley County831Buttigieg21.4%Harris20.0%
Hickory County822Buttigieg21.5%Harris19.5%
St. Clair County820Buttigieg21.3%Harris20.2%
Lewis County787Harris24.4%Buttigieg18.3%
Caldwell County779Buttigieg22.7%Harris18.6%
Monroe County763Harris22.5%Buttigieg19.7%
Carroll County746Buttigieg21.5%Harris20.6%
Iron County732Buttigieg23.3%Harris18.3%
Maries County729Buttigieg22.8%Harris18.7%
Chariton County722Buttigieg22.3%Harris19.4%
Ozark County711Buttigieg22.6%Harris18.9%
Grundy County704Buttigieg22.6%Harris19.1%
Oregon County684Buttigieg22.1%Harris19.5%
Dade County643Buttigieg22.3%Harris19.4%
Daviess County638Buttigieg22.4%Harris19.6%
Shannon County600Buttigieg22.2%Harris19.5%
Harrison County565Buttigieg22.6%Harris19.4%
Gentry County544Buttigieg23.3%Harris17.9%
Clark County543Buttigieg21.1%Harris20.5%
Shelby County514Buttigieg23.3%Harris18.5%
Reynolds County474Buttigieg20.1%Harris19.9%
Atchison County449Buttigieg24.9%Harris16.9%
Sullivan County415Harris22.2%Buttigieg18.3%
Carter County405Harris21.2%Buttigieg20.5%
Putnam County365Buttigieg23.6%Ocasio-Cortez18.6%
Holt County358Buttigieg24.0%Harris18.0%
Scotland County306Buttigieg22.2%Harris17.9%
Schuyler County298Buttigieg21.8%Harris19.7%
Knox County284Buttigieg22.7%Harris19.5%
Mercer County261Buttigieg23.6%Harris18.4%
Worth County175Buttigieg24.9%Harris17.4%