2028 forecast · Minnesota · President · 10 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Minnesota.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +18.2 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +24.4 and D +12.0. Projected votes: 1,930,607 Democratic, 1,335,473 Republican, 67,204 other, 3,333,284 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +18.22028 margin
D +4.32024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +4.3 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +18.8 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.5 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.7 toward D | 5.8% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +18.2 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 3,240,916 in 2024, 3,333,285 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Minnesota| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| WalzHYP | D +20.2 | >99% |
| Buttigieg | D +19.9 | >99% |
| Harris | D +19.3 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +19.3 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +19.1 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +19.0 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +18.8 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +18.6 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +18.5 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +18.5 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +18.4 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +18.4 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +18.2 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +18.2 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +18.2 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +18.1 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +18.0 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +17.9 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +17.9 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +17.8 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +17.7 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +17.7 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +17.6 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +17.4 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +17.1 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +16.9 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +16.5 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +15.6 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +13.9 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Minnesota| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | D +18.6 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +18.3 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +18.3 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +18.3 | >99% |
| Vance | D +18.2 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +18.2 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +18.1 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +18.0 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +18.0 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +18.0 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +17.9 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +17.8 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +17.7 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
87 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hennepin County | D +43.6 | D +63.5 | D +71 to D +56 | 581,691 | 129,937 | 727,595 | D +0.09 | R +0.06 |
| Ramsey County | D +44.3 | D +61.5 | D +69 to D +54 | 218,420 | 52,055 | 276,497 | D +0.15 | R +0.06 |
| Dakota County | D +13.1 | D +29.8 | D +37 to D +22 | 171,369 | 92,656 | 269,639 | Even | D +0.05 |
| Anoka County | R +4.5 | D +8.9 | D +16 to D +2 | 116,535 | 97,531 | 219,069 | R +0.06 | D +0.17 |
| Washington County | D +9.1 | D +23.9 | D +31 to D +17 | 109,766 | 67,391 | 180,672 | R +0.08 | D +0.15 |
| St. Louis County | D +14.0 | D +21.7 | D +29 to D +14 | 72,450 | 46,599 | 121,396 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Wright County | R +29.9 | R +14.4 | R +7 to R +22 | 41,803 | 55,845 | 99,552 | R +0.16 | D +0.86 |
| Scott County | R +8.7 | D +8.7 | D +16 to D +2 | 50,740 | 42,577 | 95,226 | Even | D +0.20 |
| Olmsted County | D +10.9 | D +26.5 | D +34 to D +19 | 57,749 | 33,537 | 93,296 | R +0.08 | Even |
| Stearns County | R +27.3 | R +16.5 | R +9 to R +24 | 37,387 | 52,169 | 91,310 | R +0.09 | D +0.20 |
| Carver County | R +5.5 | D +12.2 | D +20 to D +5 | 40,612 | 31,809 | 73,914 | R +0.14 | D +0.28 |
| Sherburne County | R +35.5 | R +20.7 | R +13 to R +28 | 24,304 | 37,023 | 62,456 | R +0.10 | D +0.57 |
| Crow Wing County | R +31.9 | R +22.5 | R +15 to R +30 | 16,518 | 26,113 | 43,331 | R +0.43 | D +0.48 |
| Blue Earth County | R +1.2 | D +9.3 | D +17 to D +2 | 21,039 | 17,473 | 39,368 | R +0.07 | D +0.05 |
| Rice County | R +2.6 | D +5.3 | D +13 to R +2 | 19,769 | 17,782 | 38,281 | R +0.06 | D +0.12 |
| Chisago County | R +31.9 | R +20.6 | R +13 to R +28 | 14,440 | 21,915 | 37,010 | R +0.25 | D +0.37 |
| Otter Tail County | R +34.8 | R +25.3 | R +18 to R +33 | 13,326 | 22,359 | 36,290 | R +0.44 | D +0.22 |
| Clay County | D +0.5 | D +9.9 | D +17 to D +3 | 18,901 | 15,493 | 35,120 | R +0.10 | D +0.12 |
| Winona County | R +5.0 | D +2.4 | D +10 to R +5 | 14,786 | 14,101 | 29,461 | R +0.20 | D +0.07 |
| Goodhue County | R +16.8 | R +8.3 | R +1 to R +16 | 13,040 | 15,388 | 29,012 | R +0.34 | D +0.10 |
| Isanti County | R +41.9 | R +31.1 | R +24 to R +39 | 9,362 | 17,812 | 27,669 | R +0.26 | D +0.78 |
| Itasca County | R +20.5 | R +15.5 | R +8 to R +23 | 11,004 | 15,041 | 26,506 | R +0.44 | D +0.14 |
| Beltrami County | R +5.8 | D +3.6 | D +11 to R +4 | 13,257 | 12,334 | 26,075 | Even | D +0.09 |
| Douglas County | R +35.6 | R +26.0 | R +19 to R +33 | 9,247 | 15,735 | 25,390 | R +0.42 | D +0.34 |
| Benton County | R +36.6 | R +25.3 | R +18 to R +33 | 8,584 | 14,414 | 23,449 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Kandiyohi County | R +31.5 | R +22.5 | R +15 to R +30 | 8,758 | 13,845 | 23,013 | R +0.26 | D +0.21 |
| McLeod County | R +38.6 | R +29.4 | R +22 to R +37 | 7,296 | 13,368 | 21,059 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Carlton County | R +2.6 | D +4.3 | D +12 to R +3 | 10,758 | 9,872 | 21,051 | R +0.28 | D +0.07 |
| Steele County | R +25.0 | R +14.3 | R +7 to R +22 | 8,742 | 11,651 | 20,822 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Morrison County | R +56.9 | R +47.5 | R +40 to R +55 | 5,282 | 14,842 | 20,447 | R +0.31 | D +0.31 |
| Nicollet County | R +0.5 | D +8.3 | D +16 to D +1 | 10,529 | 8,907 | 19,838 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Becker County | R +33.6 | R +25.5 | R +18 to R +33 | 7,195 | 12,125 | 19,641 | R +0.36 | D +0.16 |
| Cass County | R +33.9 | R +26.5 | R +19 to R +34 | 7,084 | 12,180 | 19,559 | R +0.39 | D +0.51 |
| Mower County | R +10.7 | R +3.6 | D +4 to R +11 | 8,974 | 9,635 | 18,951 | R +0.23 | D +0.09 |
| Le Sueur County | R +34.2 | R +23.0 | R +16 to R +30 | 6,728 | 10,737 | 17,778 | R +0.30 | D +0.24 |
| Pine County | R +35.7 | R +31.1 | R +23 to R +39 | 5,875 | 11,170 | 17,339 | R +0.36 | D +0.57 |
| Freeborn County | R +21.6 | R +15.8 | R +8 to R +23 | 6,742 | 9,271 | 16,265 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Mille Lacs County | R +41.5 | R +33.1 | R +26 to R +41 | 5,181 | 10,314 | 15,754 | R +0.30 | D +0.52 |
| Polk County | R +34.3 | R +25.3 | R +18 to R +33 | 5,534 | 9,291 | 15,089 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Brown County | R +35.9 | R +27.8 | R +20 to R +35 | 5,092 | 9,010 | 14,375 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Hubbard County | R +32.0 | R +22.8 | R +16 to R +30 | 5,225 | 8,310 | 13,777 | R +0.45 | D +0.52 |
| Todd County | R +54.4 | R +46.5 | R +39 to R +54 | 3,611 | 9,891 | 13,720 | R +0.31 | D +0.43 |
| Meeker County | R +43.5 | R +35.5 | R +28 to R +43 | 4,336 | 9,116 | 13,680 | R +0.34 | D +0.13 |
| Wabasha County | R +28.7 | R +20.0 | R +13 to R +28 | 5,261 | 7,899 | 13,408 | R +0.42 | D +0.12 |
| Lyon County | R +32.5 | R +23.7 | R +16 to R +31 | 4,871 | 7,892 | 13,029 | R +0.21 | D +0.11 |
| Dodge County | R +32.7 | R +20.4 | R +13 to R +28 | 5,010 | 7,574 | 12,848 | R +0.23 | D +0.18 |
| Fillmore County | R +25.9 | R +19.5 | R +12 to R +27 | 4,887 | 7,257 | 12,368 | R +0.43 | D +0.17 |
| Houston County | R +16.8 | R +8.9 | R +2 to R +16 | 4,948 | 5,917 | 11,057 | R +0.46 | Even |
| Martin County | R +40.2 | R +31.7 | R +24 to R +39 | 3,468 | 6,688 | 10,320 | R +0.41 | Even |
| Aitkin County | R +31.3 | R +27.4 | R +20 to R +35 | 3,666 | 6,433 | 10,260 | R +0.58 | D +0.48 |
| Waseca County | R +33.1 | R +24.4 | R +17 to R +32 | 3,815 | 6,274 | 10,288 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Kanabec County | R +43.0 | R +37.2 | R +29 to R +45 | 3,051 | 6,661 | 9,876 | R +0.37 | D +0.47 |
| Sibley County | R +43.8 | R +34.4 | R +27 to R +42 | 2,805 | 5,746 | 8,709 | R +0.29 | D +0.36 |
| Roseau County | R +50.0 | R +41.6 | R +34 to R +49 | 2,418 | 5,864 | 8,410 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Redwood County | R +43.9 | R +37.3 | R +30 to R +45 | 2,526 | 5,526 | 8,175 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Wadena County | R +52.1 | R +44.8 | R +37 to R +52 | 2,213 | 5,811 | 8,138 | R +0.27 | D +0.33 |
| Nobles County | R +36.1 | R +26.7 | R +19 to R +34 | 2,898 | 5,011 | 8,038 | Even | D +0.26 |
| Renville County | R +42.2 | R +35.1 | R +28 to R +43 | 2,481 | 5,164 | 7,793 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Faribault County | R +38.1 | R +30.9 | R +23 to R +38 | 2,578 | 4,886 | 7,608 | R +0.40 | D +0.07 |
| Pennington County | R +32.2 | R +25.6 | R +18 to R +33 | 2,636 | 4,448 | 7,241 | R +0.30 | D +0.05 |
| Pope County | R +32.2 | R +26.9 | R +19 to R +34 | 2,567 | 4,454 | 7,141 | R +0.45 | D +0.18 |
| Lake County | D +4.0 | D +8.8 | D +16 to D +1 | 3,570 | 2,994 | 6,692 | R +0.53 | Even |
| Koochiching County | R +26.1 | R +22.3 | R +15 to R +30 | 2,439 | 3,838 | 6,385 | R +0.50 | Even |
| Chippewa County | R +34.7 | R +29.4 | R +22 to R +37 | 2,107 | 3,863 | 6,074 | R +0.35 | D +0.16 |
| Cottonwood County | R +41.8 | R +37.8 | R +31 to R +45 | 1,783 | 3,955 | 5,839 | R +0.32 | D +0.11 |
| Jackson County | R +42.8 | R +35.2 | R +28 to R +43 | 1,746 | 3,642 | 5,485 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Stevens County | R +27.5 | R +20.4 | R +13 to R +28 | 2,082 | 3,151 | 5,328 | R +0.07 | D +0.13 |
| Yellow Medicine County | R +41.4 | R +36.2 | R +29 to R +44 | 1,668 | 3,560 | 5,329 | R +0.31 | D +0.05 |
| Rock County | R +39.9 | R +31.9 | R +25 to R +39 | 1,766 | 3,424 | 5,281 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Swift County | R +34.7 | R +31.3 | R +24 to R +39 | 1,667 | 3,188 | 4,940 | R +0.42 | D +0.08 |
| Marshall County | R +52.5 | R +47.0 | R +39 to R +55 | 1,266 | 3,509 | 4,854 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Clearwater County | R +50.7 | R +45.1 | R +38 to R +53 | 1,309 | 3,461 | 4,838 | R +0.28 | D +0.28 |
| Watonwan County | R +28.4 | R +21.9 | R +14 to R +29 | 1,841 | 2,870 | 4,808 | R +0.26 | D +0.20 |
| Pipestone County | R +48.9 | R +40.8 | R +33 to R +48 | 1,362 | 3,238 | 4,677 | R +0.29 | D +0.11 |
| Murray County | R +43.1 | R +37.8 | R +30 to R +45 | 1,389 | 3,077 | 4,546 | R +0.42 | Even |
| Lac qui Parle County | R +32.9 | R +28.7 | R +21 to R +36 | 1,359 | 2,456 | 3,886 | R +0.50 | D +0.11 |
| Cook County | D +35.8 | D +49.5 | D +57 to D +42 | 2,562 | 866 | 3,506 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Grant County | R +31.2 | R +25.6 | R +18 to R +33 | 1,266 | 2,137 | 3,477 | R +0.43 | D +0.06 |
| Wilkin County | R +39.8 | R +32.4 | R +25 to R +40 | 1,070 | 2,096 | 3,230 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Norman County | R +22.8 | R +18.2 | R +11 to R +26 | 1,272 | 1,838 | 3,188 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Lincoln County | R +38.5 | R +33.2 | R +26 to R +41 | 1,029 | 2,051 | 3,140 | R +0.45 | Even |
| Big Stone County | R +30.1 | R +26.3 | R +19 to R +34 | 974 | 1,671 | 2,697 | R +0.51 | Even |
| Kittson County | R +25.5 | R +19.7 | R +12 to R +27 | 927 | 1,383 | 2,358 | R +0.47 | Even |
| Lake of the Woods County | R +47.8 | R +39.7 | R +32 to R +47 | 681 | 1,577 | 2,292 | R +0.40 | D +0.13 |
| Mahnomen County | R +8.9 | R +1.8 | D +6 to R +10 | 1,014 | 1,052 | 2,103 | D +0.18 | Even |
| Red Lake County | R +37.9 | R +31.5 | R +24 to R +39 | 695 | 1,335 | 2,073 | R +0.43 | D +0.12 |
| Traverse County | R +32.2 | R +29.5 | R +22 to R +37 | 581 | 1,067 | 1,681 | R +0.41 | Even |