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2028 forecast · Minnesota · Democratic primary

Minnesota Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

ButtigiegFavorite, wins 66% of runs
28.3%Buttigieg's projected share
842,896Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Buttigieg28.3%238,59066%16.6%
Ocasio-Cortez16.6%139,54023%12.7%
Harris14.6%122,6711%5.0%
Newsom12.6%106,1627%9.5%
Ossoff7.9%66,4101%5.7%
Kelly3.8%31,780<1%4.9%
Shapiro3.4%28,9172%5.8%
Beshear0.9%7,656<1%3.2%
Whitmer0.7%6,055<1%1.1%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Minnesota votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
ButtigiegOcasio-Cortez

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Minnesota
Progressive39%
Working class and union16%
Institutional16%
Democratic leaning independents13%
Civil rights coalition7%
Moderate independents3%

Black 10.4%, Hispanic 3%, Asian and other 4.4%, under 30 13.4%, 65 and up 28.8%, college graduates 50.8%, women 54.6%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 744,198 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 842,896 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Hennepin County222,146Buttigieg27.8%Ocasio-Cortez18.0%
Ramsey County84,592Buttigieg25.0%Ocasio-Cortez18.0%
Dakota County72,313Buttigieg28.9%Ocasio-Cortez16.0%
Anoka County54,611Buttigieg24.3%Harris18.6%
Washington County45,653Buttigieg32.2%Ocasio-Cortez15.9%
St. Louis County29,993Buttigieg31.3%Ocasio-Cortez17.6%
Olmsted County24,681Buttigieg32.3%Ocasio-Cortez16.3%
Scott County22,997Buttigieg30.1%Ocasio-Cortez17.2%
Stearns County19,964Buttigieg23.3%Harris18.0%
Wright County19,685Buttigieg30.1%Ocasio-Cortez16.0%
Carver County17,121Buttigieg36.5%Ocasio-Cortez17.1%
Sherburne County12,445Buttigieg26.9%Ocasio-Cortez16.1%
Rice County9,399Buttigieg23.8%Ocasio-Cortez18.3%
Blue Earth County9,021Ocasio-Cortez25.4%Buttigieg25.0%
Crow Wing County8,748Buttigieg32.4%Harris13.7%
Clay County8,319Buttigieg29.1%Ocasio-Cortez20.9%
Otter Tail County7,519Buttigieg31.4%Harris14.6%
Chisago County7,466Buttigieg28.2%Ocasio-Cortez15.1%
Winona County6,624Buttigieg28.8%Ocasio-Cortez21.8%
Goodhue County6,520Buttigieg30.3%Ocasio-Cortez14.3%
Itasca County5,860Buttigieg31.1%Harris14.8%
Beltrami County5,824Buttigieg31.0%Ocasio-Cortez19.8%
Kandiyohi County5,127Buttigieg27.1%Harris16.7%
Douglas County5,083Buttigieg32.3%Harris13.6%
Carlton County5,023Buttigieg28.6%Harris15.0%
Isanti County5,011Buttigieg27.5%Harris15.4%
Benton County4,836Buttigieg24.9%Harris16.6%
Nicollet County4,829Buttigieg29.5%Ocasio-Cortez18.9%
Steele County4,679Buttigieg28.0%Harris15.7%
Mower County4,536Buttigieg26.1%Harris16.6%
McLeod County4,199Buttigieg27.6%Harris15.9%
Becker County4,076Buttigieg31.7%Harris14.2%
Cass County3,926Buttigieg31.7%Harris14.6%
Freeborn County3,690Buttigieg26.1%Harris17.9%
Le Sueur County3,615Buttigieg29.4%Ocasio-Cortez14.8%
Morrison County3,481Buttigieg28.2%Harris16.3%
Pine County3,470Buttigieg25.5%Harris19.2%
Polk County3,242Buttigieg29.8%Harris14.6%
Brown County2,952Buttigieg29.3%Harris15.0%
Mille Lacs County2,926Buttigieg27.4%Harris16.1%
Wabasha County2,849Buttigieg30.4%Harris14.6%
Hubbard County2,820Buttigieg33.2%Harris13.7%
Lyon County2,799Buttigieg29.9%Ocasio-Cortez15.7%
Dodge County2,627Buttigieg30.4%Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
Fillmore County2,624Buttigieg29.3%Harris15.3%
Meeker County2,607Buttigieg28.1%Harris15.9%
Houston County2,548Buttigieg32.8%Ocasio-Cortez13.3%
Todd County2,422Buttigieg26.4%Harris17.9%
Waseca County2,148Buttigieg27.3%Harris15.7%
Martin County2,134Buttigieg29.6%Harris15.9%
Aitkin County2,119Buttigieg28.9%Harris17.3%
Nobles County1,845Buttigieg21.4%Harris20.8%
Kanabec County1,833Buttigieg27.1%Harris17.2%
Lake County1,660Buttigieg31.5%Harris14.4%
Sibley County1,657Buttigieg26.9%Harris16.7%
Redwood County1,583Buttigieg29.6%Harris15.3%
Roseau County1,564Buttigieg29.1%Harris15.5%
Renville County1,562Buttigieg27.1%Harris17.0%
Faribault County1,554Buttigieg28.6%Harris16.3%
Pennington County1,523Buttigieg27.7%Harris15.6%
Pope County1,474Buttigieg29.7%Harris15.7%
Wadena County1,459Buttigieg27.6%Harris16.8%
Koochiching County1,427Buttigieg30.4%Harris15.7%
Chippewa County1,282Buttigieg27.3%Harris16.5%
Cottonwood County1,179Buttigieg28.9%Harris15.6%
Stevens County1,132Buttigieg26.2%Ocasio-Cortez22.2%
Jackson County1,095Buttigieg30.8%Harris14.8%
Watonwan County1,073Buttigieg25.6%Harris16.8%
Rock County1,059Buttigieg30.9%Ocasio-Cortez14.1%
Yellow Medicine County1,056Buttigieg27.2%Harris16.9%
Swift County1,020Buttigieg30.6%Harris14.4%
Cook County992Buttigieg38.8%Ocasio-Cortez12.3%
Murray County919Buttigieg29.7%Harris16.1%
Pipestone County910Buttigieg27.4%Harris16.7%
Marshall County895Buttigieg27.7%Harris16.8%
Clearwater County862Buttigieg29.5%Harris15.3%
Lac qui Parle County811Buttigieg29.7%Harris15.9%
Grant County724Buttigieg28.7%Harris16.1%
Norman County718Buttigieg29.4%Harris15.3%
Wilkin County662Buttigieg29.6%Harris15.1%
Lincoln County639Buttigieg31.6%Harris14.5%
Big Stone County584Buttigieg31.2%Harris15.2%
Kittson County536Buttigieg32.9%Harris13.7%
Mahnomen County492Buttigieg26.8%Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
Lake of the Woods County437Buttigieg31.9%Harris14.8%
Red Lake County413Buttigieg28.9%Harris16.2%
Traverse County366Buttigieg26.9%Harris17.3%