2028 forecast · Michigan · Democratic primary
Michigan Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
HarrisFavorite, wins 58% of runs
15.5%Harris's projected share
1,718,653Projected primary votes
1Calendar window: votes first, with the early states
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 15.5% | 266,923 | 58% | 16.0% |
| Buttigieg | 11.6% | 198,745 | 23% | 11.8% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 8.4% | 144,994 | 7% | 8.6% |
| Newsom | 7.7% | 131,962 | 6% | 7.6% |
| Ossoff | 6.8% | 116,236 | 4% | 6.8% |
| Whitmer | 5.3% | 90,685 | 1% | 5.2% |
| Kelly | 4.8% | 83,260 | 1% | 4.8% |
| Shapiro | 4.4% | 75,574 | 1% | 4.4% |
| Beshear | 3.4% | 58,915 | <1% | 3.4% |
| El-SayedHYP | 2.7% | 46,652 | <1% | 2.6% |
| Booker | 2.6% | 44,945 | <1% | 2.5% |
| Pritzker | 2.1% | 37,008 | <1% | 2.1% |
| CrockettHYP | 1.4% | 24,283 | <1% | 1.4% |
| WalzHYP | 1.3% | 22,641 | <1% | 1.3% |
| WarnockHYP | 1.2% | 20,060 | <1% | 1.1% |
| TalaricoHYP | 1.1% | 19,526 | <1% | 1.1% |
| CubanHYP | 1.1% | 18,911 | <1% | 1.1% |
| Stephen A. SmithHYP | 1.0% | 16,605 | <1% | 0.9% |
| CooperHYP | 0.9% | 15,316 | <1% | 0.9% |
| Rob SandHYP | 0.9% | 14,725 | <1% | 0.8% |
| BrownHYP | 0.8% | 14,023 | <1% | 0.8% |
| KhannaHYP | 0.8% | 13,786 | <1% | 0.8% |
| MurphyHYP | 0.8% | 13,378 | <1% | 0.8% |
| MooreHYP | 0.7% | 12,235 | <1% | 0.7% |
| KlobucharHYP | 0.6% | 9,607 | <1% | 0.5% |
| GallegoHYP | 0.5% | 8,872 | <1% | 0.5% |
| PolisHYP | 0.3% | 5,320 | <1% | 0.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Michigan votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareButtigiegHarrisOcasio-Cortez
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MichiganBlack 20.5%, Hispanic 3%, Asian and other 3.4%, under 30 14.4%, 65 and up 28.9%, college graduates 40.8%, women 54.5%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,587,679 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,718,653 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne County | 355,338 | Harris | 42.7% | Ossoff | 9.7% |
| Oakland County | 253,767 | Buttigieg | 16.4% | Newsom | 10.1% |
| Macomb County | 146,525 | Harris | 13.7% | Buttigieg | 9.2% |
| Kent County | 114,609 | Buttigieg | 14.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 14.2% |
| Washtenaw County | 75,700 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.7% | Buttigieg | 15.6% |
| Genesee County | 72,708 | Harris | 22.5% | Ossoff | 8.5% |
| Ingham County | 48,907 | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.4% | Buttigieg | 10.7% |
| Kalamazoo County | 45,929 | Ocasio-Cortez | 15.8% | Buttigieg | 13.4% |
| Ottawa County | 45,570 | Buttigieg | 19.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.9% |
| Saginaw County | 32,944 | Harris | 21.6% | Newsom | 7.7% |
| Livingston County | 32,665 | Buttigieg | 25.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 10.5% |
| Muskegon County | 28,204 | Harris | 14.1% | Newsom | 8.1% |
| Berrien County | 25,017 | Harris | 13.6% | Buttigieg | 10.7% |
| St. Clair County | 22,085 | Buttigieg | 13.9% | Kelly | 8.9% |
| Jackson County | 21,913 | Buttigieg | 11.6% | Harris | 9.5% |
| Monroe County | 21,908 | Buttigieg | 15.6% | Newsom | 8.7% |
| Calhoun County | 19,110 | Harris | 12.4% | Buttigieg | 9.4% |
| Eaton County | 18,559 | Buttigieg | 13.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.4% |
| Allegan County | 17,271 | Buttigieg | 17.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 10.6% |
| Grand Traverse County | 16,920 | Buttigieg | 25.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 11.0% |
| Bay County | 15,447 | Buttigieg | 15.7% | Kelly | 8.8% |
| Lenawee County | 13,615 | Buttigieg | 14.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.0% |
| Clinton County | 13,237 | Buttigieg | 20.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 12.2% |
| Midland County | 12,868 | Buttigieg | 23.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.8% |
| Lapeer County | 12,172 | Buttigieg | 14.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 8.5% |
| Marquette County | 10,826 | Buttigieg | 20.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.5% |
| Van Buren County | 10,823 | Buttigieg | 13.6% | Newsom | 8.9% |
| Shiawassee County | 9,684 | Buttigieg | 15.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.2% |
| Barry County | 8,702 | Buttigieg | 18.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.6% |
| Isabella County | 8,111 | Ocasio-Cortez | 27.7% | Buttigieg | 11.9% |
| Ionia County | 8,067 | Buttigieg | 11.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 10.0% |
| Montcalm County | 7,810 | Buttigieg | 11.0% | Kelly | 8.6% |
| St. Joseph County | 6,722 | Buttigieg | 12.3% | Kelly | 9.2% |
| Cass County | 6,583 | Buttigieg | 13.3% | Newsom | 8.8% |
| Tuscola County | 6,473 | Buttigieg | 13.7% | Kelly | 10.1% |
| Newaygo County | 6,222 | Buttigieg | 14.1% | Kelly | 9.4% |
| Emmet County | 5,928 | Buttigieg | 28.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.4% |
| Mecosta County | 5,195 | Buttigieg | 14.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 12.0% |
| Leelanau County | 4,991 | Buttigieg | 34.5% | Newsom | 9.6% |
| Hillsdale County | 4,947 | Buttigieg | 16.6% | Kelly | 9.0% |
| Delta County | 4,945 | Buttigieg | 17.2% | Kelly | 9.5% |
| Gratiot County | 4,898 | Buttigieg | 9.6% | Harris | 8.9% |
| Houghton County | 4,878 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.7% | Buttigieg | 17.3% |
| Chippewa County | 4,735 | Buttigieg | 11.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.1% |
| Sanilac County | 4,722 | Buttigieg | 14.4% | Kelly | 10.5% |
| Branch County | 4,570 | Buttigieg | 13.0% | Kelly | 9.5% |
| Charlevoix County | 4,423 | Buttigieg | 24.9% | Newsom | 8.9% |
| Mason County | 4,392 | Buttigieg | 19.2% | Newsom | 8.6% |
| Wexford County | 4,376 | Buttigieg | 16.0% | Kelly | 8.7% |
| Antrim County | 4,079 | Buttigieg | 24.5% | Newsom | 8.9% |
| Huron County | 4,027 | Buttigieg | 15.8% | Kelly | 10.5% |
| Alpena County | 3,953 | Buttigieg | 15.0% | Kelly | 9.8% |
| Manistee County | 3,904 | Buttigieg | 16.3% | Newsom | 8.9% |
| Cheboygan County | 3,745 | Buttigieg | 19.0% | Kelly | 9.0% |
| Clare County | 3,732 | Buttigieg | 12.5% | Kelly | 11.4% |
| Roscommon County | 3,602 | Buttigieg | 16.3% | Kelly | 11.0% |
| Otsego County | 3,593 | Buttigieg | 18.7% | Newsom | 8.4% |
| Iosco County | 3,573 | Buttigieg | 15.4% | Kelly | 10.7% |
| Oceana County | 3,538 | Buttigieg | 14.8% | Kelly | 9.6% |
| Dickinson County | 3,393 | Buttigieg | 19.7% | Kelly | 8.7% |
| Benzie County | 3,334 | Buttigieg | 25.1% | Newsom | 9.2% |
| Gladwin County | 3,280 | Buttigieg | 14.8% | Kelly | 10.9% |
| Menominee County | 2,897 | Buttigieg | 16.1% | Kelly | 10.2% |
| Osceola County | 2,672 | Buttigieg | 13.9% | Kelly | 10.1% |
| Ogemaw County | 2,649 | Buttigieg | 15.0% | Kelly | 11.0% |
| Kalkaska County | 2,443 | Buttigieg | 14.5% | Kelly | 9.1% |
| Gogebic County | 2,024 | Buttigieg | 18.5% | Kelly | 9.6% |
| Presque Isle County | 1,988 | Buttigieg | 17.4% | Kelly | 10.7% |
| Arenac County | 1,940 | Buttigieg | 14.3% | Kelly | 11.1% |
| Crawford County | 1,891 | Buttigieg | 16.7% | Kelly | 10.4% |
| Mackinac County | 1,829 | Buttigieg | 13.1% | Newsom | 8.4% |
| Missaukee County | 1,740 | Buttigieg | 15.3% | Kelly | 9.8% |
| Lake County | 1,699 | Harris | 13.7% | Kelly | 10.5% |
| Iron County | 1,609 | Buttigieg | 18.2% | Kelly | 10.3% |
| Alcona County | 1,592 | Buttigieg | 16.9% | Kelly | 11.2% |
| Alger County | 1,379 | Harris | 10.6% | Buttigieg | 10.4% |
| Montmorency County | 1,311 | Buttigieg | 13.4% | Kelly | 11.9% |
| Schoolcraft County | 1,109 | Buttigieg | 17.1% | Kelly | 9.9% |
| Baraga County | 1,080 | Harris | 12.0% | Kelly | 8.4% |
| Oscoda County | 1,069 | Buttigieg | 14.0% | Kelly | 11.8% |
| Ontonagon County | 865 | Buttigieg | 16.1% | Kelly | 11.8% |
| Luce County | 694 | Harris | 15.6% | Kelly | 8.1% |
| Keweenaw County | 409 | Buttigieg | 28.5% | Newsom | 9.2% |
ButtigiegFavorite, wins 44% of runs
12.8%Buttigieg's projected share
1,718,653Projected primary votes
1Calendar window: votes first, with the early states
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 12.8% | 220,745 | 44% | 13.1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 9.5% | 162,943 | 18% | 9.7% |
| Newsom | 9.2% | 158,662 | 16% | 9.2% |
| Ossoff | 9.1% | 157,058 | 14% | 9.4% |
| Whitmer | 6.4% | 109,450 | 4% | 6.3% |
| Kelly | 5.8% | 99,124 | 2% | 5.7% |
| Shapiro | 5.2% | 89,899 | 2% | 5.2% |
| Beshear | 4.2% | 71,639 | 1% | 4.1% |
| Booker | 3.6% | 61,995 | <1% | 3.5% |
| El-SayedHYP | 3.2% | 54,748 | <1% | 3.1% |
| Pritzker | 2.6% | 44,709 | <1% | 2.5% |
| CrockettHYP | 2.2% | 37,283 | <1% | 2.1% |
| WarnockHYP | 1.7% | 29,529 | <1% | 1.7% |
| WalzHYP | 1.5% | 26,165 | <1% | 1.5% |
| Stephen A. SmithHYP | 1.4% | 24,386 | <1% | 1.4% |
| TalaricoHYP | 1.4% | 23,240 | <1% | 1.3% |
| CubanHYP | 1.3% | 22,544 | <1% | 1.3% |
| CooperHYP | 1.1% | 19,380 | <1% | 1.1% |
| Rob SandHYP | 1.0% | 17,698 | <1% | 1.0% |
| MooreHYP | 1.0% | 17,204 | <1% | 1.0% |
| BrownHYP | 1.0% | 16,814 | <1% | 1.0% |
| KhannaHYP | 0.9% | 15,644 | <1% | 0.9% |
| MurphyHYP | 0.9% | 15,548 | <1% | 0.9% |
| KlobucharHYP | 0.7% | 11,158 | <1% | 0.6% |
| GallegoHYP | 0.6% | 10,684 | <1% | 0.6% |
| PolisHYP | 0.3% | 6,092 | <1% | 0.3% |
| EmanuelHYP | 0.3% | 5,247 | <1% | 0.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Michigan votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareButtigiegKellyOssoffOcasio-CortezNewsom
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MichiganBlack 20.5%, Hispanic 3%, Asian and other 3.4%, under 30 14.4%, 65 and up 28.9%, college graduates 40.8%, women 54.5%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,587,679 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,718,653 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne County | 355,338 | Ossoff | 18.4% | Newsom | 8.2% |
| Oakland County | 253,767 | Buttigieg | 18.2% | Newsom | 11.2% |
| Macomb County | 146,525 | Buttigieg | 10.9% | Newsom | 10.3% |
| Kent County | 114,609 | Buttigieg | 15.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 15.2% |
| Washtenaw County | 75,700 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.4% | Buttigieg | 16.1% |
| Genesee County | 72,708 | Ossoff | 11.4% | Newsom | 9.5% |
| Ingham County | 48,907 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.5% | Buttigieg | 11.3% |
| Kalamazoo County | 45,929 | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.7% | Buttigieg | 14.2% |
| Ottawa County | 45,570 | Buttigieg | 20.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.4% |
| Saginaw County | 32,944 | Newsom | 10.1% | Ossoff | 9.7% |
| Livingston County | 32,665 | Buttigieg | 26.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 10.8% |
| Muskegon County | 28,204 | Newsom | 9.6% | Buttigieg | 9.4% |
| Berrien County | 25,017 | Buttigieg | 12.5% | Newsom | 10.6% |
| St. Clair County | 22,085 | Buttigieg | 15.0% | Kelly | 9.6% |
| Jackson County | 21,913 | Buttigieg | 13.0% | Newsom | 9.7% |
| Monroe County | 21,908 | Buttigieg | 16.6% | Newsom | 9.2% |
| Calhoun County | 19,110 | Buttigieg | 10.9% | Newsom | 9.9% |
| Eaton County | 18,559 | Buttigieg | 15.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 10.2% |
| Allegan County | 17,271 | Buttigieg | 18.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 11.1% |
| Grand Traverse County | 16,920 | Buttigieg | 26.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 11.3% |
| Bay County | 15,447 | Buttigieg | 16.7% | Kelly | 9.4% |
| Lenawee County | 13,615 | Buttigieg | 15.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.6% |
| Clinton County | 13,237 | Buttigieg | 21.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 12.7% |
| Midland County | 12,868 | Buttigieg | 24.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 10.2% |
| Lapeer County | 12,172 | Buttigieg | 15.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.0% |
| Marquette County | 10,826 | Buttigieg | 20.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.9% |
| Van Buren County | 10,823 | Buttigieg | 14.8% | Newsom | 9.7% |
| Shiawassee County | 9,684 | Buttigieg | 16.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.7% |
| Barry County | 8,702 | Buttigieg | 19.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 10.1% |
| Isabella County | 8,111 | Ocasio-Cortez | 28.2% | Buttigieg | 12.1% |
| Ionia County | 8,067 | Buttigieg | 11.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 10.8% |
| Montcalm County | 7,810 | Buttigieg | 11.9% | Kelly | 9.3% |
| St. Joseph County | 6,722 | Buttigieg | 13.2% | Kelly | 9.9% |
| Cass County | 6,583 | Buttigieg | 14.6% | Newsom | 9.7% |
| Tuscola County | 6,473 | Buttigieg | 14.6% | Kelly | 10.8% |
| Newaygo County | 6,222 | Buttigieg | 14.9% | Kelly | 10.0% |
| Emmet County | 5,928 | Buttigieg | 28.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.7% |
| Mecosta County | 5,195 | Buttigieg | 15.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 12.5% |
| Leelanau County | 4,991 | Buttigieg | 35.5% | Newsom | 9.9% |
| Hillsdale County | 4,947 | Buttigieg | 17.5% | Kelly | 9.5% |
| Delta County | 4,945 | Buttigieg | 18.2% | Kelly | 10.1% |
| Gratiot County | 4,898 | Buttigieg | 10.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.5% |
| Houghton County | 4,878 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.2% | Buttigieg | 17.6% |
| Chippewa County | 4,735 | Buttigieg | 12.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 9.9% |
| Sanilac County | 4,722 | Buttigieg | 15.3% | Kelly | 11.2% |
| Branch County | 4,570 | Buttigieg | 14.0% | Kelly | 10.2% |
| Charlevoix County | 4,423 | Buttigieg | 25.9% | Newsom | 9.3% |
| Mason County | 4,392 | Buttigieg | 20.2% | Newsom | 9.1% |
| Wexford County | 4,376 | Buttigieg | 16.9% | Kelly | 9.3% |
| Antrim County | 4,079 | Buttigieg | 25.5% | Newsom | 9.3% |
| Huron County | 4,027 | Buttigieg | 16.8% | Kelly | 11.2% |
| Alpena County | 3,953 | Buttigieg | 16.0% | Kelly | 10.4% |
| Manistee County | 3,904 | Buttigieg | 17.6% | Newsom | 9.6% |
| Cheboygan County | 3,745 | Buttigieg | 20.0% | Kelly | 9.5% |
| Clare County | 3,732 | Buttigieg | 13.4% | Kelly | 12.3% |
| Roscommon County | 3,602 | Buttigieg | 17.6% | Kelly | 11.9% |
| Otsego County | 3,593 | Buttigieg | 19.6% | Newsom | 8.8% |
| Iosco County | 3,573 | Buttigieg | 16.6% | Kelly | 11.5% |
| Oceana County | 3,538 | Buttigieg | 15.8% | Kelly | 10.3% |
| Dickinson County | 3,393 | Buttigieg | 20.7% | Kelly | 9.1% |
| Benzie County | 3,334 | Buttigieg | 26.1% | Newsom | 9.6% |
| Gladwin County | 3,280 | Buttigieg | 15.8% | Kelly | 11.6% |
| Menominee County | 2,897 | Buttigieg | 17.2% | Kelly | 10.8% |
| Osceola County | 2,672 | Buttigieg | 14.8% | Kelly | 10.7% |
| Ogemaw County | 2,649 | Buttigieg | 16.0% | Kelly | 11.7% |
| Kalkaska County | 2,443 | Buttigieg | 15.5% | Kelly | 9.7% |
| Gogebic County | 2,024 | Buttigieg | 19.6% | Kelly | 10.2% |
| Presque Isle County | 1,988 | Buttigieg | 18.5% | Kelly | 11.4% |
| Arenac County | 1,940 | Buttigieg | 15.3% | Kelly | 11.8% |
| Crawford County | 1,891 | Buttigieg | 17.7% | Kelly | 11.1% |
| Mackinac County | 1,829 | Buttigieg | 14.4% | Newsom | 9.2% |
| Missaukee County | 1,740 | Buttigieg | 16.2% | Kelly | 10.4% |
| Lake County | 1,699 | Kelly | 12.4% | Beshear | 9.8% |
| Iron County | 1,609 | Buttigieg | 19.4% | Kelly | 11.0% |
| Alcona County | 1,592 | Buttigieg | 18.2% | Kelly | 12.0% |
| Alger County | 1,379 | Buttigieg | 11.8% | Kelly | 9.4% |
| Montmorency County | 1,311 | Buttigieg | 14.5% | Kelly | 12.9% |
| Schoolcraft County | 1,109 | Buttigieg | 18.2% | Kelly | 10.6% |
| Baraga County | 1,080 | Kelly | 9.7% | Buttigieg | 8.8% |
| Oscoda County | 1,069 | Buttigieg | 15.1% | Kelly | 12.7% |
| Ontonagon County | 865 | Buttigieg | 17.4% | Kelly | 12.7% |
| Luce County | 694 | Kelly | 9.8% | Buttigieg | 9.3% |
| Keweenaw County | 409 | Buttigieg | 29.6% | Newsom | 9.6% |