2028 forecast · Michigan · President · 15 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Michigan.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +6.3 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +11.1 and D +1.3. Projected votes: 3,000,123 Democratic, 2,646,278 Republican, 103,511 other, 5,749,912 in all.
95%Democratic win chance
D +6.32028 margin
R +1.42024 actual
22%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +1.4 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +7.7 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.4 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.8 toward D | 6.0% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +6.3 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 5,662,504 in 2024, 5,749,913 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Michigan| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| WhitmerHYP | D +9.3 | 99% |
| Buttigieg | D +8.7 | 99% |
| Harris | D +7.7 | 98% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +7.3 | 97% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +6.9 | 97% |
| Cuban | D +6.9 | 96% |
| CooperHYP | D +6.8 | 96% |
| BookerHYP | D +6.8 | 96% |
| Ossoff | D +6.5 | 95% |
| BrownHYP | D +6.5 | 95% |
| CrockettHYP | D +6.4 | 95% |
| KhannaHYP | D +6.4 | 95% |
| Generic Democrat | D +6.3 | 95% |
| WalzHYP | D +6.3 | 95% |
| MurphyHYP | D +6.3 | 95% |
| PolisHYP | D +6.3 | 95% |
| BeshearHYP | D +6.2 | 95% |
| WarnockHYP | D +6.1 | 94% |
| GallegoHYP | D +6.0 | 94% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +6.0 | 94% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +6.0 | 94% |
| KellyHYP | D +5.9 | 94% |
| Shapiro | D +5.7 | 93% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +5.5 | 92% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +5.5 | 92% |
| MooreHYP | D +5.1 | 91% |
| Newsom | D +4.3 | 87% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +3.6 | 83% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +1.9 | 69% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Michigan| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | D +6.8 | 96% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +6.7 | 96% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +6.7 | 96% |
| HaleyHYP | D +6.7 | 96% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +6.6 | 96% |
| CruzHYP | D +6.5 | 96% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +6.5 | 95% |
| Rubio | D +6.5 | 95% |
| KempHYP | D +6.4 | 95% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +6.4 | 95% |
| Vance | D +6.3 | 95% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +6.1 | 94% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +5.9 | 94% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
83 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne County | D +30.0 | D +41.5 | D +48 to D +35 | 586,357 | 242,505 | 851,247 | D +0.36 | Even |
| Oakland County | D +10.8 | D +21.4 | D +28 to D +15 | 463,845 | 300,026 | 777,537 | D +0.10 | Even |
| Macomb County | R +13.9 | R +7.2 | R +1 to R +14 | 234,591 | 271,054 | 514,449 | R +0.06 | D +0.05 |
| Kent County | D +5.5 | D +15.4 | D +22 to D +9 | 220,427 | 161,729 | 389,085 | D +0.08 | Even |
| Washtenaw County | D +45.5 | D +56.8 | D +63 to D +50 | 176,850 | 48,751 | 230,314 | D +0.25 | R +0.09 |
| Genesee County | D +4.3 | D +9.0 | D +15 to D +3 | 119,953 | 100,062 | 223,385 | Even | Even |
| Ottawa County | R +20.8 | R +12.7 | R +7 to R +19 | 82,489 | 106,560 | 192,129 | R +0.07 | D +0.26 |
| Ingham County | D +30.3 | D +38.4 | D +45 to D +32 | 107,277 | 47,765 | 158,034 | D +0.25 | Even |
| Kalamazoo County | D +18.0 | D +25.1 | D +31 to D +19 | 94,290 | 56,400 | 153,397 | D +0.08 | Even |
| Livingston County | R +24.3 | R +14.9 | R +9 to R +21 | 57,057 | 77,006 | 136,012 | R +0.27 | D +0.14 |
| Saginaw County | R +3.3 | D +1.6 | D +8 to R +5 | 52,138 | 50,512 | 104,157 | Even | Even |
| Muskegon County | R +1.8 | D +2.0 | D +8 to R +5 | 49,099 | 47,180 | 97,840 | R +0.11 | D +0.08 |
| St. Clair County | R +35.1 | R +29.6 | R +23 to R +36 | 33,572 | 61,805 | 96,884 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Monroe County | R +27.5 | R +23.3 | R +17 to R +30 | 34,869 | 56,010 | 92,305 | R +0.29 | D +0.08 |
| Jackson County | R +21.6 | R +17.7 | R +11 to R +24 | 34,157 | 48,845 | 84,361 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Berrien County | R +8.0 | R +2.6 | D +4 to R +9 | 39,980 | 42,072 | 83,320 | R +0.14 | Even |
| Allegan County | R +27.6 | R +21.3 | R +15 to R +28 | 28,646 | 44,105 | 73,936 | R +0.22 | D +0.17 |
| Calhoun County | R +14.2 | R +10.3 | R +4 to R +17 | 30,329 | 37,266 | 68,608 | R +0.14 | Even |
| Eaton County | R +3.2 | D +2.3 | D +9 to R +4 | 33,183 | 31,708 | 65,996 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Grand Traverse County | R +1.8 | D +6.0 | D +12 to R +0 | 33,479 | 29,667 | 64,218 | R +0.32 | D +0.08 |
| Bay County | R +14.9 | R +11.2 | R +5 to R +18 | 26,579 | 33,299 | 60,754 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Lapeer County | R +40.3 | R +33.6 | R +27 to R +40 | 18,359 | 36,968 | 56,121 | R +0.27 | D +0.12 |
| Lenawee County | R +23.4 | R +19.3 | R +13 to R +26 | 21,749 | 32,153 | 54,744 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Clinton County | R +8.7 | R +1.0 | D +5 to R +7 | 24,961 | 25,485 | 51,284 | R +0.22 | D +0.07 |
| Midland County | R +15.4 | R +9.1 | R +3 to R +15 | 22,683 | 27,247 | 50,790 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Van Buren County | R +15.4 | R +11.0 | R +5 to R +17 | 18,127 | 22,621 | 41,395 | R +0.23 | D +0.05 |
| Marquette County | D +8.9 | D +14.8 | D +21 to D +9 | 23,385 | 17,357 | 41,480 | R +0.21 | D +0.06 |
| Shiawassee County | R +23.4 | R +19.4 | R +13 to R +26 | 16,187 | 24,002 | 40,872 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Barry County | R +34.9 | R +28.3 | R +22 to R +35 | 13,975 | 25,029 | 39,650 | R +0.30 | D +0.24 |
| Montcalm County | R +39.6 | R +35.1 | R +28 to R +42 | 11,549 | 24,056 | 36,196 | R +0.23 | D +0.40 |
| Ionia County | R +32.3 | R +26.8 | R +20 to R +33 | 12,494 | 21,650 | 34,711 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Isabella County | R +7.6 | R +1.0 | D +5 to R +7 | 16,361 | 16,697 | 33,623 | Even | Even |
| Tuscola County | R +43.5 | R +40.6 | R +34 to R +48 | 8,876 | 21,017 | 30,316 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Newaygo County | R +43.5 | R +39.6 | R +33 to R +46 | 8,918 | 20,603 | 29,990 | R +0.29 | D +0.39 |
| St. Joseph County | R +34.5 | R +31.3 | R +25 to R +38 | 9,926 | 18,977 | 29,385 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Cass County | R +34.3 | R +29.6 | R +23 to R +36 | 9,633 | 17,714 | 27,735 | R +0.32 | D +0.10 |
| Hillsdale County | R +52.1 | R +48.9 | R +42 to R +56 | 6,269 | 18,261 | 24,877 | R +0.31 | D +0.07 |
| Mecosta County | R +30.5 | R +26.8 | R +20 to R +33 | 8,681 | 15,051 | 24,136 | R +0.26 | D +0.45 |
| Sanilac County | R +48.3 | R +45.8 | R +39 to R +53 | 6,133 | 16,491 | 22,942 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Emmet County | R +10.9 | R +4.9 | D +1 to R +11 | 10,615 | 11,700 | 22,704 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Delta County | R +30.8 | R +28.6 | R +22 to R +35 | 7,526 | 13,557 | 21,401 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Branch County | R +43.1 | R +39.6 | R +33 to R +46 | 6,331 | 14,622 | 21,285 | R +0.29 | D +0.24 |
| Houghton County | R +17.3 | R +11.7 | R +6 to R +18 | 8,990 | 11,365 | 20,710 | R +0.15 | D +0.07 |
| Gratiot County | R +31.7 | R +28.5 | R +22 to R +35 | 7,063 | 12,703 | 20,069 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Wexford County | R +35.1 | R +31.2 | R +25 to R +38 | 6,713 | 12,801 | 19,825 | R +0.33 | D +0.25 |
| Chippewa County | R +24.7 | R +20.6 | R +14 to R +27 | 7,191 | 10,932 | 18,446 | Even | Even |
| Huron County | R +41.1 | R +40.3 | R +34 to R +47 | 5,365 | 12,606 | 18,204 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Mason County | R +21.7 | R +18.6 | R +12 to R +25 | 7,156 | 10,436 | 17,863 | R +0.43 | D +0.07 |
| Leelanau County | D +7.9 | D +15.9 | D +22 to D +9 | 10,082 | 7,317 | 17,650 | R +0.48 | D +0.12 |
| Charlevoix County | R +17.2 | R +12.0 | R +6 to R +18 | 7,553 | 9,620 | 17,449 | R +0.44 | D +0.05 |
| Antrim County | R +24.1 | R +19.1 | R +13 to R +25 | 6,918 | 10,185 | 17,345 | R +0.46 | D +0.48 |
| Clare County | R +38.1 | R +37.4 | R +31 to R +44 | 5,331 | 11,700 | 17,284 | R +0.44 | D +0.34 |
| Alpena County | R +29.0 | R +26.9 | R +20 to R +34 | 6,135 | 10,648 | 17,017 | R +0.42 | D +0.07 |
| Otsego County | R +35.8 | R +30.6 | R +24 to R +37 | 5,616 | 10,579 | 16,446 | R +0.36 | D +0.41 |
| Cheboygan County | R +31.6 | R +29.1 | R +23 to R +36 | 5,666 | 10,320 | 16,225 | R +0.44 | D +0.18 |
| Roscommon County | R +33.3 | R +32.1 | R +26 to R +39 | 5,259 | 10,233 | 15,700 | R +0.54 | D +0.34 |
| Gladwin County | R +41.2 | R +39.6 | R +33 to R +47 | 4,610 | 10,662 | 15,471 | R +0.45 | D +0.41 |
| Manistee County | R +16.2 | R +13.7 | R +7 to R +20 | 6,507 | 8,581 | 15,335 | R +0.42 | D +0.23 |
| Iosco County | R +31.0 | R +29.8 | R +23 to R +37 | 5,274 | 9,759 | 15,266 | R +0.51 | D +0.14 |
| Dickinson County | R +36.9 | R +32.9 | R +27 to R +39 | 4,980 | 9,871 | 15,081 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Oceana County | R +30.5 | R +26.7 | R +20 to R +33 | 5,410 | 9,353 | 15,011 | R +0.29 | D +0.21 |
| Osceola County | R +48.7 | R +46.6 | R +40 to R +54 | 3,520 | 9,671 | 13,412 | R +0.33 | D +0.39 |
| Benzie County | R +8.8 | R +3.2 | D +3 to R +10 | 6,203 | 6,618 | 13,011 | R +0.45 | D +0.22 |
| Menominee County | R +34.0 | R +32.7 | R +26 to R +39 | 4,173 | 8,221 | 12,563 | R +0.47 | Even |
| Ogemaw County | R +42.6 | R +41.8 | R +35 to R +49 | 3,584 | 8,726 | 12,487 | R +0.44 | D +0.31 |
| Kalkaska County | R +43.5 | R +37.5 | R +31 to R +44 | 3,658 | 8,049 | 11,894 | R +0.32 | D +0.49 |
| Missaukee County | R +56.8 | R +53.1 | R +46 to R +60 | 2,133 | 6,959 | 9,236 | R +0.27 | D +0.23 |
| Arenac County | R +41.1 | R +39.5 | R +33 to R +46 | 2,689 | 6,196 | 9,017 | R +0.45 | D +0.19 |
| Crawford County | R +34.2 | R +30.9 | R +24 to R +38 | 2,948 | 5,585 | 8,656 | R +0.45 | D +0.61 |
| Presque Isle County | R +29.4 | R +29.1 | R +22 to R +36 | 2,970 | 5,405 | 8,503 | R +0.56 | D +0.25 |
| Gogebic County | R +17.3 | R +15.4 | R +9 to R +22 | 3,346 | 4,563 | 8,018 | R +0.52 | D +0.05 |
| Alcona County | R +42.1 | R +40.2 | R +34 to R +47 | 2,171 | 5,094 | 7,355 | R +0.52 | D +0.60 |
| Lake County | R +32.6 | R +30.9 | R +24 to R +38 | 2,472 | 4,687 | 7,262 | R +0.32 | D +0.87 |
| Mackinac County | R +25.2 | R +22.2 | R +16 to R +29 | 2,782 | 4,369 | 7,245 | R +0.11 | D +0.26 |
| Iron County | R +29.7 | R +28.1 | R +22 to R +35 | 2,426 | 4,324 | 6,838 | R +0.54 | D +0.24 |
| Montmorency County | R +46.0 | R +44.5 | R +38 to R +51 | 1,786 | 4,647 | 6,525 | R +0.47 | D +0.97 |
| Oscoda County | R +44.9 | R +43.0 | R +36 to R +50 | 1,486 | 3,727 | 5,282 | R +0.46 | D +0.81 |
| Alger County | R +20.1 | R +18.4 | R +12 to R +25 | 2,060 | 2,988 | 5,120 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Schoolcraft County | R +32.4 | R +31.4 | R +25 to R +38 | 1,627 | 3,119 | 4,818 | R +0.40 | D +0.28 |
| Baraga County | R +30.3 | R +27.6 | R +21 to R +34 | 1,540 | 2,713 | 4,318 | R +0.15 | D +0.09 |
| Ontonagon County | R +30.7 | R +30.8 | R +24 to R +38 | 1,246 | 2,356 | 3,653 | R +0.59 | D +0.22 |
| Luce County | R +47.7 | R +44.8 | R +38 to R +52 | 799 | 2,098 | 2,944 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Keweenaw County | R +13.0 | R +8.0 | R +2 to R +14 | 741 | 870 | 1,637 | R +0.58 | D +0.49 |