2028 forecast · Maine · Democratic primary

Maine Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

ButtigiegFavorite, wins 81% of runs

33.5%Buttigieg's projected share

220,085Projected primary votes

2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Buttigieg	33.5%	73,765	81%	24.1%
Ocasio-Cortez	14.0%	30,901	9%	10.2%
Harris	12.8%	28,175	<1%	3.8%
Newsom	12.4%	27,310	5%	9.7%
Ossoff	6.3%	13,855	<1%	3.7%
Kelly	4.4%	9,685	1%	6.7%
Shapiro	3.5%	7,736	2%	6.5%
Beshear	1.1%	2,371	<1%	4.5%
Whitmer	0.7%	1,504	<1%	1.1%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Maine votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Buttigieg

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Maine

Progressive32%

Institutional23%

Working class and union22%

Democratic leaning independents10%

Civil rights coalition6%

Moderate independents3%

Black 2.5%, Hispanic 1.2%, Asian and other 2.3%, under 30 10.4%, 65 and up 36.3%, college graduates 45.2%, women 53.9%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 205,937 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 220,085 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Cumberland County	59,422	Buttigieg	38.1%	Ocasio-Cortez	15.7%
York County	35,751	Buttigieg	33.7%	Ocasio-Cortez	13.4%
Penobscot County	21,324	Buttigieg	30.3%	Ocasio-Cortez	15.6%
Kennebec County	18,528	Buttigieg	31.6%	Ocasio-Cortez	14.9%
Androscoggin County	15,016	Buttigieg	24.7%	Harris	18.7%
Hancock County	9,813	Buttigieg	36.2%	Ocasio-Cortez	12.9%
Oxford County	8,288	Buttigieg	29.4%	Harris	16.0%
Aroostook County	7,989	Buttigieg	29.0%	Harris	16.9%
Knox County	7,106	Buttigieg	37.3%	Newsom	12.3%
Sagadahoc County	6,745	Buttigieg	37.6%	Ocasio-Cortez	13.6%
Waldo County	6,539	Buttigieg	33.9%	Harris	13.0%
Lincoln County	6,468	Buttigieg	36.6%	Newsom	12.4%
Somerset County	6,316	Buttigieg	27.8%	Harris	17.1%
Franklin County	4,403	Buttigieg	32.3%	Ocasio-Cortez	14.4%
Washington County	4,122	Buttigieg	28.8%	Harris	16.6%
Piscataquis County	2,255	Buttigieg	27.6%	Harris	18.2%