2028 forecast · Maine · President · 2 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Maine.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +19.8 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +25.1 and D +14.3. Projected votes: 499,421 Democratic, 334,590 Republican, 18,173 other, 852,184 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +19.82028 margin
D +7.12024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +7.1 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +18.6 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.8 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.5 toward D | 5.2% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +19.8 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 831,375 in 2024, 852,186 projected. |
Congressional district electoral votes
built from counties| District | Margin | D win | D votes | R votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME-1 | D +36.1 | >99% | 321,092 | 150,623 |
| ME-2 | R +1.6 | 36% | 178,329 | 183,967 |
Maine 1 is the southern coast and Kennebec County; Maine 2 is the rest of the state.
Democrats against Vance
Maine| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +22.1 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +21.2 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +20.7 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +20.5 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +20.4 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +20.3 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +20.2 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +20.1 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +20.0 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +20.0 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +19.9 | >99% |
| Harris | D +19.9 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +19.9 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +19.8 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +19.7 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +19.6 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +19.6 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +19.6 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +19.3 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +19.3 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +19.1 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +18.9 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +18.8 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +18.8 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +18.5 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +18.3 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +18.2 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +18.0 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +15.2 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Maine| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Tim ScottHYP | D +21.1 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +20.9 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +20.8 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +20.7 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +20.7 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +20.6 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +20.5 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +20.5 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +20.5 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +20.4 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +20.1 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +20.1 | >99% |
| Vance | D +19.8 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
16 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland County | D +37.2 | D +55.5 | D +62 to D +49 | 156,511 | 44,845 | 206,119 | R +0.17 | R +0.08 |
| York County | D +10.7 | D +24.6 | D +31 to D +18 | 83,766 | 50,738 | 137,234 | R +0.34 | D +0.10 |
| Penobscot County | R +11.1 | R +1.5 | D +5 to R +8 | 43,530 | 44,854 | 90,237 | R +0.30 | D +0.19 |
| Kennebec County | R +2.8 | D +7.1 | D +14 to D +1 | 39,413 | 34,182 | 75,326 | R +0.34 | D +0.16 |
| Androscoggin County | R +6.2 | D +4.3 | D +11 to R +2 | 31,055 | 28,515 | 60,872 | R +0.28 | D +0.18 |
| Hancock County | D +12.1 | D +22.6 | D +29 to D +16 | 21,912 | 13,818 | 36,571 | R +0.42 | D +0.06 |
| Oxford County | R +13.1 | R +3.0 | D +4 to R +10 | 16,832 | 17,867 | 35,393 | R +0.44 | D +0.31 |
| Aroostook County | R +26.6 | R +20.7 | R +14 to R +27 | 13,538 | 20,587 | 34,683 | R +0.48 | Even |
| Somerset County | R +27.5 | R +19.0 | R +12 to R +26 | 11,372 | 16,722 | 28,626 | R +0.42 | D +0.24 |
| Knox County | D +19.0 | D +30.7 | D +37 to D +24 | 16,451 | 8,724 | 25,710 | R +0.46 | Even |
| Waldo County | D +3.5 | D +13.2 | D +20 to D +7 | 14,075 | 10,784 | 25,488 | R +0.43 | D +0.12 |
| Sagadahoc County | D +17.0 | D +33.1 | D +40 to D +27 | 16,180 | 8,140 | 24,880 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Lincoln County | D +11.5 | D +23.4 | D +30 to D +17 | 14,680 | 9,118 | 24,296 | R +0.47 | D +0.10 |
| Franklin County | R +8.4 | R +1.2 | D +5 to R +8 | 9,004 | 9,220 | 18,644 | R +0.38 | D +0.27 |
| Washington County | R +23.9 | R +18.3 | R +12 to R +25 | 7,168 | 10,375 | 17,855 | R +0.43 | D +0.14 |
| Piscataquis County | R +29.8 | R +21.6 | R +15 to R +29 | 3,926 | 6,092 | 10,227 | R +0.47 | D +0.40 |