2028 forecast · Maryland · President · 10 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Maryland.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +42.9 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +49.1 and D +36.3. Projected votes: 2,123,526 Democratic, 848,419 Republican, 67,363 other, 3,039,308 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +42.92028 margin
D +29.52024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +29.5 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +45.7 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.2 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.8 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | No change | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +42.9 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 3,015,650 in 2024, 3,039,309 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Maryland| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Harris | D +45.6 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +44.2 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +44.1 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +44.1 | >99% |
| Buttigieg | D +43.8 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +43.8 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +43.5 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +43.4 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +43.2 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +43.2 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +43.1 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +43.1 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +43.0 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +43.0 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +42.9 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +42.7 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +42.6 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +42.6 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +42.6 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +42.4 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +42.4 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +42.3 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +42.3 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +42.2 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +42.2 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +42.2 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +41.6 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +40.6 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +34.6 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Maryland| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +43.1 | >99% |
| Vance | D +42.9 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +42.6 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +42.4 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +42.3 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +42.2 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +42.1 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +41.8 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +41.8 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +41.6 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +41.6 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +41.5 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +41.3 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
24 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery County | D +54.9 | D +72.4 | D +81 to D +64 | 425,924 | 68,175 | 505,994 | D +0.27 | R +0.15 |
| Baltimore County | D +25.1 | D +36.7 | D +45 to D +29 | 271,049 | 125,516 | 405,490 | D +0.24 | Even |
| Prince George's County | D +77.0 | D +95.4 | D +99 to D +88 | 378,762 | 9,009 | 395,651 | D +0.29 | R +0.24 |
| Anne Arundel County | D +14.3 | D +25.2 | D +33 to D +17 | 193,034 | 115,438 | 315,745 | D +0.12 | Even |
| Baltimore city | D +74.9 | D +96.0 | D +99 to D +90 | 216,437 | 4,378 | 225,724 | D +0.32 | R +0.12 |
| Howard County | D +43.3 | D +61.5 | D +70 to D +53 | 144,248 | 34,390 | 183,821 | D +0.30 | Even |
| Frederick County | D +9.0 | D +19.5 | D +27 to D +12 | 99,284 | 66,882 | 170,046 | Even | D +0.24 |
| Harford County | R +14.2 | R +5.7 | D +2 to R +13 | 70,236 | 78,765 | 152,306 | R +0.06 | D +0.13 |
| Carroll County | R +25.6 | R +14.9 | R +7 to R +23 | 43,153 | 58,318 | 103,968 | R +0.23 | D +0.17 |
| Charles County | D +41.6 | D +64.9 | D +73 to D +56 | 78,470 | 16,680 | 97,028 | D +0.54 | R +0.14 |
| Washington County | R +23.5 | R +15.8 | R +8 to R +24 | 30,492 | 41,912 | 73,935 | R +0.16 | D +0.15 |
| St. Mary's County | R +17.6 | R +9.3 | R +2 to R +17 | 26,966 | 32,464 | 60,804 | Even | D +0.14 |
| Calvert County | R +11.2 | R +2.1 | D +6 to R +10 | 26,449 | 27,602 | 55,116 | Even | D +0.09 |
| Cecil County | R +31.5 | R +24.2 | R +16 to R +32 | 20,044 | 32,866 | 53,991 | R +0.22 | D +0.29 |
| Wicomico County | R +5.6 | D +1.4 | D +9 to R +7 | 24,103 | 23,423 | 48,561 | D +0.26 | D +0.11 |
| Queen Anne's County | R +28.4 | R +20.0 | R +12 to R +28 | 13,353 | 20,033 | 34,056 | R +0.26 | D +0.72 |
| Worcester County | R +22.5 | R +17.6 | R +10 to R +26 | 13,253 | 18,917 | 32,766 | R +0.35 | D +0.36 |
| Allegany County | R +41.2 | R +33.5 | R +25 to R +42 | 10,360 | 20,789 | 31,727 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Talbot County | Even | D +5.4 | D +13 to R +2 | 11,462 | 10,287 | 22,150 | R +0.32 | D +0.10 |
| Dorchester County | R +14.9 | R +11.9 | R +4 to R +20 | 7,318 | 9,294 | 16,946 | R +0.06 | D +0.26 |
| Caroline County | R +38.9 | R +33.2 | R +25 to R +41 | 5,396 | 10,755 | 16,484 | R +0.14 | D +0.22 |
| Garrett County | R +55.2 | R +50.7 | R +43 to R +59 | 3,711 | 11,354 | 15,362 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Kent County | R +2.9 | D +0.6 | D +9 to R +7 | 5,524 | 5,453 | 11,210 | R +0.21 | D +0.13 |
| Somerset County | R +17.8 | R +12.0 | R +4 to R +20 | 4,485 | 5,706 | 10,389 | D +0.32 | D +0.10 |