2028 forecast · Maryland · Democratic primary

Maryland Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 70% of runs

59.5%Harris's projected share

1,058,247Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	59.5%	629,441	70%	40.8%
Newsom	9.8%	104,234	10%	6.8%
Buttigieg	8.8%	93,196	8%	4.2%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.1%	54,265	5%	3.8%
Ossoff	5.1%	54,149	6%	7.7%
Kelly	0.4%	4,432	<1%	2.7%
Shapiro	0.2%	2,119	<1%	3.4%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Maryland votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Maryland

Progressive37%

Institutional24%

Working class and union22%

Civil rights coalition13%

Democratic leaning independents3%

Black 44.9%, Hispanic 6.1%, Asian and other 4.4%, under 30 12.8%, 65 and up 28.5%, college graduates 53.5%, women 55.1%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,050,773 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,058,247 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Prince George's County	210,592	Harris	61.9%	Newsom	9.2%
Montgomery County	184,257	Harris	57.7%	Newsom	10.3%
Baltimore County	145,249	Harris	60.2%	Newsom	9.7%
Baltimore city	102,406	Harris	61.6%	Newsom	9.3%
Anne Arundel County	95,523	Harris	58.4%	Newsom	10.1%
Howard County	62,324	Harris	57.6%	Newsom	10.3%
Frederick County	43,373	Harris	56.8%	Newsom	10.4%
Charles County	41,590	Harris	61.6%	Newsom	9.3%
Harford County	38,630	Harris	58.2%	Newsom	10.2%
Carroll County	21,356	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Washington County	16,679	Harris	58.3%	Newsom	10.1%
St. Mary's County	14,819	Harris	58.1%	Newsom	10.2%
Wicomico County	14,004	Harris	60.0%	Newsom	9.8%
Calvert County	13,904	Harris	58.0%	Newsom	10.2%
Cecil County	10,724	Harris	57.2%	Newsom	10.3%
Worcester County	7,542	Harris	57.8%	Newsom	10.2%
Queen Anne's County	6,834	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Talbot County	6,146	Harris	57.7%	Newsom	10.3%
Allegany County	5,892	Harris	57.7%	Newsom	10.2%
Dorchester County	4,653	Harris	60.4%	Newsom	9.6%
Caroline County	3,359	Harris	58.9%	Newsom	10.0%
Somerset County	3,134	Harris	61.2%	Newsom	9.4%
Kent County	2,926	Harris	57.7%	Newsom	10.3%
Garrett County	2,331	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%

NewsomFavorite, wins 31% of runs

26.5%Newsom's projected share