2028 forecast · Massachusetts · Democratic primary
Massachusetts Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 29.9% | 414,869 | 73% | 21.4% |
| Harris | 16.7% | 231,369 | 4% | 7.6% |
| Newsom | 13.1% | 182,266 | 11% | 11.3% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 12.8% | 177,688 | 8% | 9.2% |
| Ossoff | 7.8% | 107,657 | 1% | 6.1% |
| Kelly | 3.7% | 51,582 | 1% | 5.5% |
| Shapiro | 3.3% | 46,358 | 2% | 6.4% |
| Beshear | 0.8% | 11,749 | <1% | 3.1% |
| Whitmer | 0.6% | 8,435 | <1% | 0.9% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Massachusetts votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MassachusettsBlack 10.3%, Hispanic 6%, Asian and other 5.2%, under 30 12.6%, 65 and up 32%, college graduates 58%, women 53.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,418,180 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,388,137 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County | 331,583 | Buttigieg | 37.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 13.8% |
| Essex County | 159,679 | Buttigieg | 30.0% | Harris | 15.9% |
| Worcester County | 159,133 | Buttigieg | 27.2% | Harris | 17.1% |
| Norfolk County | 157,527 | Buttigieg | 34.6% | Harris | 14.2% |
| Suffolk County | 144,560 | Harris | 26.2% | Buttigieg | 18.0% |
| Plymouth County | 114,694 | Buttigieg | 26.4% | Harris | 20.0% |
| Bristol County | 98,702 | Buttigieg | 25.4% | Harris | 19.1% |
| Hampden County | 83,111 | Harris | 27.1% | Buttigieg | 19.0% |
| Barnstable County | 55,492 | Buttigieg | 36.7% | Harris | 13.9% |
| Hampshire County | 33,031 | Buttigieg | 34.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.2% |
| Berkshire County | 26,464 | Buttigieg | 33.1% | Harris | 13.7% |
| Franklin County | 16,109 | Buttigieg | 33.8% | Harris | 13.4% |
| Dukes County | 4,911 | Buttigieg | 41.0% | Newsom | 12.6% |
| Nantucket County | 3,141 | Buttigieg | 30.6% | Harris | 17.8% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 31.4% | 435,662 | 75% | 23.0% |
| Newsom | 15.9% | 221,470 | 12% | 12.4% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 14.2% | 197,624 | 8% | 10.1% |
| Ossoff | 11.5% | 159,107 | 2% | 6.8% |
| Kelly | 6.1% | 84,677 | 1% | 6.1% |
| Shapiro | 5.5% | 76,663 | 2% | 7.0% |
| Beshear | 2.0% | 27,740 | <1% | 3.4% |
| Whitmer | 1.2% | 16,315 | <1% | 0.9% |
| Booker | 0.8% | 11,029 | <1% | 1.7% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Massachusetts votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MassachusettsBlack 10.3%, Hispanic 6%, Asian and other 5.2%, under 30 12.6%, 65 and up 32%, college graduates 58%, women 53.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,418,180 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,388,137 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County | 331,583 | Buttigieg | 37.8% | Newsom | 14.7% |
| Essex County | 159,679 | Buttigieg | 31.4% | Newsom | 17.0% |
| Worcester County | 159,133 | Buttigieg | 28.5% | Newsom | 15.9% |
| Norfolk County | 157,527 | Buttigieg | 36.2% | Newsom | 15.9% |
| Suffolk County | 144,560 | Buttigieg | 20.9% | Ossoff | 19.5% |
| Plymouth County | 114,694 | Buttigieg | 28.6% | Newsom | 16.5% |
| Bristol County | 98,702 | Buttigieg | 26.8% | Newsom | 16.0% |
| Hampden County | 83,111 | Buttigieg | 21.9% | Newsom | 18.0% |
| Barnstable County | 55,492 | Buttigieg | 38.1% | Newsom | 15.4% |
| Hampshire County | 33,031 | Buttigieg | 34.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.4% |
| Berkshire County | 26,464 | Buttigieg | 33.9% | Newsom | 14.9% |
| Franklin County | 16,109 | Buttigieg | 34.5% | Newsom | 14.7% |
| Dukes County | 4,911 | Buttigieg | 42.0% | Newsom | 14.5% |
| Nantucket County | 3,141 | Buttigieg | 33.0% | Newsom | 17.0% |