2028 forecast · Massachusetts · President · 11 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Massachusetts.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +42.0 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +49.0 and D +35.0. Projected votes: 2,404,884 Democratic, 982,638 Republican, 71,512 other, 3,459,034 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +42.02028 margin
D +25.92024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +25.9 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +38.8 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.5 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.7 toward D | 5.7% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | No change | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +42.0 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 3,453,437 in 2024, 3,459,035 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Massachusetts| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +44.2 | >99% |
| Harris | D +43.4 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +42.8 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +42.7 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +42.6 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +42.6 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +42.5 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +42.5 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +42.5 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +42.4 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +42.4 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +42.3 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +42.2 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +42.0 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +41.9 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +41.9 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +41.8 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +41.7 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +41.6 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +41.6 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +41.5 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +41.5 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +41.4 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +41.2 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +41.2 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +41.0 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +41.0 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +40.4 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +39.7 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Massachusetts| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +42.3 | >99% |
| Vance | D +42.0 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +41.7 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +41.6 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +41.4 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +41.2 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +41.1 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +40.8 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +40.7 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +40.6 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +40.4 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +40.4 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +39.5 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
14 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County | D +40.4 | D +58.1 | D +67 to D +50 | 627,936 | 166,268 | 812,192 | D +0.05 | R +0.10 |
| Worcester County | D +10.2 | D +24.4 | D +32 to D +17 | 257,669 | 156,726 | 423,593 | R +0.10 | Even |
| Essex County | D +20.7 | D +37.2 | D +45 to D +29 | 268,031 | 122,612 | 398,263 | R +0.08 | Even |
| Norfolk County | D +29.4 | D +47.9 | D +56 to D +40 | 278,913 | 98,255 | 384,899 | Even | Even |
| Plymouth County | D +9.0 | D +25.0 | D +33 to D +17 | 184,765 | 110,969 | 301,211 | R +0.18 | D +0.05 |
| Suffolk County | D +54.0 | D +76.4 | D +85 to D +68 | 253,681 | 33,893 | 294,325 | D +0.35 | R +0.22 |
| Bristol County | D +1.3 | D +13.0 | D +21 to D +5 | 154,783 | 119,238 | 279,085 | R +0.21 | D +0.06 |
| Hampden County | D +9.1 | D +20.4 | D +28 to D +13 | 121,945 | 80,547 | 206,665 | Even | Even |
| Barnstable County | D +21.1 | D +33.0 | D +41 to D +25 | 93,446 | 47,055 | 142,857 | R +0.48 | Even |
| Hampshire County | D +43.2 | D +55.6 | D +64 to D +48 | 67,621 | 19,283 | 89,184 | R +0.08 | Even |
| Berkshire County | D +40.8 | D +53.7 | D +62 to D +46 | 50,294 | 15,139 | 66,797 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Franklin County | D +39.0 | D +52.9 | D +61 to D +45 | 30,575 | 9,413 | 41,124 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Dukes County | D +53.8 | D +69.3 | D +78 to D +61 | 9,698 | 1,757 | 11,691 | R +0.25 | R +0.16 |
| Nantucket County | D +37.6 | D +57.8 | D +66 to D +50 | 5,520 | 1,476 | 7,125 | R +0.08 | R +0.06 |