2028 forecast · Louisiana · Democratic primary

Louisiana Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 99% of runs

60.5%Harris's projected share

341,346Projected primary votes

3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	60.5%	206,648	99%	52.8%
Ossoff	8.6%	29,499	1%	6.4%
Newsom	6.8%	23,062	<1%	4.0%
Buttigieg	5.3%	18,125	<1%	1.6%
Ocasio-Cortez	3.8%	12,864	<1%	1.2%
Kelly	1.9%	6,503	<1%	2.5%
Shapiro	1.3%	4,425	<1%	2.1%
Beshear	0.4%	1,502	<1%	2.3%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Louisiana votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Louisiana

Progressive39%

Working class and union26%

Institutional21%

Civil rights coalition9%

Democratic leaning independents3%

Black 48.3%, Hispanic 2.4%, Asian and other 1.5%, under 30 13.8%, 65 and up 28.7%, college graduates 35.8%, women 54.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 267,286 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 341,346 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
East Baton Rouge Parish	44,131	Harris	65.1%	Ossoff	9.4%
Orleans Parish	42,040	Harris	71.4%	Ossoff	7.8%
Jefferson Parish	32,546	Harris	57.3%	Ossoff	9.6%
Caddo Parish	22,094	Harris	74.7%	Ossoff	5.8%
Lafayette Parish	17,220	Harris	49.5%	Ossoff	10.0%
St. Tammany Parish	16,850	Harris	30.9%	Buttigieg	17.6%
Calcasieu Parish	11,405	Harris	53.0%	Ossoff	9.3%
Ouachita Parish	11,374	Harris	63.9%	Ossoff	8.5%
Ascension Parish	9,435	Harris	52.1%	Ossoff	10.0%
Rapides Parish	8,399	Harris	62.8%	Ossoff	8.3%
Tangipahoa Parish	8,287	Harris	58.4%	Ossoff	10.3%
Bossier Parish	7,305	Harris	52.9%	Ossoff	9.5%
St. Landry Parish	7,084	Harris	71.0%	Ossoff	7.1%
Livingston Parish	5,609	Harris	31.4%	Buttigieg	15.3%
St. John the Baptist Parish	5,206	Harris	78.7%	Ossoff	5.2%
Terrebonne Parish	4,907	Harris	50.0%	Newsom	9.5%
Iberia Parish	4,727	Harris	67.0%	Ossoff	7.5%
Lafourche Parish	4,176	Harris	36.8%	Buttigieg	13.4%
St. Charles Parish	4,093	Harris	54.0%	Ossoff	9.5%
St. Martin Parish	3,670	Harris	61.9%	Ossoff	8.6%
St. Mary Parish	3,462	Harris	67.3%	Ossoff	7.5%
Iberville Parish	3,401	Harris	72.9%	Ossoff	6.8%
Lincoln Parish	3,221	Harris	51.0%	Ossoff	13.4%
West Baton Rouge Parish	2,893	Harris	72.2%	Ossoff	6.7%
Natchitoches Parish	2,801	Harris	63.4%	Ossoff	9.9%
St. James Parish	2,690	Harris	76.5%	Ossoff	5.3%
Washington Parish	2,645	Harris	62.1%	Ossoff	8.2%
St. Bernard Parish	2,643	Harris	55.4%	Ossoff	9.3%
Acadia Parish	2,640	Harris	47.3%	Newsom	9.8%
Webster Parish	2,585	Harris	68.1%	Ossoff	7.2%
Vermilion Parish	2,515	Harris	40.1%	Buttigieg	11.8%
De Soto Parish	2,296	Harris	68.4%	Ossoff	7.5%
Avoyelles Parish	2,246	Harris	62.6%	Ossoff	8.3%
Morehouse Parish	2,079	Harris	76.1%	Ossoff	5.4%
Pointe Coupee Parish	1,947	Harris	66.3%	Ossoff	7.5%
East Feliciana Parish	1,918	Harris	72.0%	Ossoff	6.5%
Evangeline Parish	1,837	Harris	58.0%	Ossoff	9.3%
Assumption Parish	1,561	Harris	63.5%	Ossoff	7.9%
Vernon Parish	1,504	Harris	39.2%	Newsom	11.3%
Jefferson Davis Parish	1,450	Harris	46.0%	Newsom	10.2%
Richland Parish	1,448	Harris	66.0%	Ossoff	8.0%
Plaquemines Parish	1,443	Harris	55.0%	Ossoff	9.5%
Concordia Parish	1,377	Harris	69.8%	Ossoff	7.2%
Beauregard Parish	1,369	Harris	39.7%	Buttigieg	12.1%
St. Helena Parish	1,309	Harris	77.2%	Ossoff	5.0%
Bienville Parish	1,244	Harris	74.2%	Ossoff	5.9%
Union Parish	1,240	Harris	58.2%	Ossoff	8.3%
Claiborne Parish	1,218	Harris	78.0%	Ossoff	4.7%
Franklin Parish	1,185	Harris	61.1%	Ossoff	8.5%
West Feliciana Parish	1,156	Harris	70.8%	Ossoff	8.0%
Madison Parish	1,032	Harris	79.0%	Ossoff	4.8%
Allen Parish	1,012	Harris	58.5%	Ossoff	9.2%
Jackson Parish	957	Harris	59.9%	Ossoff	8.7%
Sabine Parish	934	Harris	48.7%	Newsom	9.4%
Grant Parish	776	Harris	47.8%	Ossoff	9.9%
Winn Parish	773	Harris	64.4%	Ossoff	8.1%
Red River Parish	681	Harris	71.8%	Ossoff	6.7%
Catahoula Parish	629	Harris	67.0%	Ossoff	7.9%
East Carroll Parish	628	Harris	78.8%	Ossoff	5.1%
LaSalle Parish	534	Harris	51.0%	Ossoff	9.9%
Tensas Parish	504	Harris	79.8%	Ossoff	3.9%
Caldwell Parish	410	Harris	56.2%	Ossoff	9.1%
West Carroll Parish	394	Harris	46.3%	Buttigieg	10.0%
Cameron Parish	201	Harris	27.2%	Buttigieg	19.1%

OssoffFavorite, wins 75% of runs

32.6%Ossoff's projected share