2028 forecast · Louisiana · President · 8 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry Louisiana.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +11.0 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +4.0 and R +17.9. Projected votes: 870,029 Democratic, 1,084,920 Republican, 30,624 other, 1,985,573 in all.
2%Democratic win chance
R +11.02028 margin
R +22.42024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +22.4 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +6.9 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.2 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.8 toward D | 5.2% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.2 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +11.0 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 2,006,975 in 2024, 1,985,574 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Louisiana| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Harris | R +9.1 | 5% |
| WarnockHYP | R +9.8 | 4% |
| CrockettHYP | R +10.0 | 3% |
| BookerHYP | R +10.0 | 3% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +10.1 | 3% |
| BeshearHYP | R +10.3 | 3% |
| Cuban | R +10.6 | 3% |
| Buttigieg | R +10.6 | 2% |
| WalzHYP | R +10.8 | 2% |
| BrownHYP | R +10.8 | 2% |
| CooperHYP | R +10.8 | 2% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +10.9 | 2% |
| Ossoff | R +11.0 | 2% |
| Generic Democrat | R +11.0 | 2% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +11.1 | 2% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +11.1 | 2% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +11.2 | 2% |
| GallegoHYP | R +11.3 | 2% |
| KhannaHYP | R +11.3 | 2% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +11.3 | 2% |
| MurphyHYP | R +11.3 | 2% |
| PolisHYP | R +11.4 | 2% |
| KellyHYP | R +11.4 | 2% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +11.4 | 2% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +11.7 | 2% |
| Shapiro | R +11.8 | 1% |
| MooreHYP | R +11.8 | 1% |
| Newsom | R +13.6 | 1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +15.1 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Louisiana| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +9.1 | 5% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +9.7 | 4% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +9.8 | 3% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +10.1 | 3% |
| Rubio | R +10.1 | 3% |
| KempHYP | R +10.2 | 3% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +10.2 | 3% |
| CottonHYP | R +10.2 | 3% |
| CruzHYP | R +10.4 | 3% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +10.4 | 3% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +10.9 | 2% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +10.9 | 2% |
| Vance | R +11.0 | 2% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
64 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Baton Rouge Parish | D +11.3 | D +31.0 | D +39 to D +23 | 124,170 | 65,381 | 193,372 | D +0.63 | Even |
| Jefferson Parish | R +13.2 | R +1.4 | D +6 to R +9 | 80,882 | 83,146 | 167,155 | D +0.14 | D +0.17 |
| Orleans Parish | D +68.9 | D +91.4 | D +99 to D +83 | 141,518 | 6,376 | 151,287 | D +0.32 | R +0.10 |
| St. Tammany Parish | R +44.5 | R +34.9 | R +27 to R +43 | 45,609 | 94,532 | 142,484 | R +0.17 | D +0.58 |
| Lafayette Parish | R +31.9 | R +18.7 | R +11 to R +27 | 46,599 | 68,100 | 116,698 | D +0.06 | D +0.50 |
| Caddo Parish | D +4.7 | D +23.0 | D +31 to D +15 | 54,357 | 34,042 | 89,707 | D +0.36 | Even |
| Calcasieu Parish | R +40.2 | R +33.4 | R +26 to R +41 | 25,646 | 51,387 | 78,245 | Even | D +0.07 |
| Livingston Parish | R +69.4 | R +62.6 | R +55 to R +71 | 13,063 | 56,727 | 70,745 | R +0.13 | D +1.19 |
| Ascension Parish | R +34.5 | R +23.4 | R +16 to R +31 | 24,926 | 40,176 | 66,191 | D +0.08 | D +0.53 |
| Ouachita Parish | R +28.2 | R +15.6 | R +8 to R +24 | 26,667 | 36,554 | 64,039 | D +0.18 | D +0.06 |
| Tangipahoa Parish | R +37.9 | R +30.5 | R +23 to R +39 | 19,986 | 37,539 | 58,320 | D +0.07 | D +0.59 |
| Bossier Parish | R +43.9 | R +34.0 | R +26 to R +42 | 17,211 | 34,971 | 52,902 | Even | D +0.20 |
| Rapides Parish | R +37.3 | R +27.6 | R +20 to R +36 | 18,477 | 32,548 | 51,727 | D +0.05 | D +0.05 |
| Lafourche Parish | R +62.8 | R +57.6 | R +50 to R +66 | 8,809 | 32,733 | 42,083 | R +0.13 | D +0.05 |
| Terrebonne Parish | R +52.5 | R +47.4 | R +39 to R +56 | 10,178 | 28,500 | 39,188 | R +0.06 | D +0.12 |
| St. Landry Parish | R +19.0 | R +7.5 | D +1 to R +16 | 16,664 | 19,359 | 36,441 | D +0.24 | Even |
| Iberia Parish | R +34.5 | R +27.1 | R +19 to R +36 | 10,137 | 17,690 | 28,158 | D +0.11 | Even |
| Vermilion Parish | R +64.5 | R +58.8 | R +51 to R +67 | 5,400 | 20,838 | 26,549 | R +0.14 | D +0.18 |
| Acadia Parish | R +64.5 | R +58.9 | R +51 to R +67 | 5,379 | 20,823 | 26,475 | R +0.12 | D +0.05 |
| St. Charles Parish | R +32.9 | R +22.4 | R +15 to R +30 | 9,934 | 15,675 | 26,023 | D +0.06 | Even |
| St. Martin Parish | R +41.1 | R +33.2 | R +25 to R +42 | 8,140 | 16,231 | 24,651 | Even | Even |
| St. Mary Parish | R +32.2 | R +24.8 | R +16 to R +33 | 7,261 | 12,052 | 19,530 | D +0.09 | D +0.08 |
| Lincoln Parish | R +25.9 | R +18.1 | R +10 to R +26 | 7,812 | 11,265 | 19,390 | D +0.49 | Even |
| Washington Parish | R +40.7 | R +37.2 | R +29 to R +46 | 5,611 | 12,257 | 18,070 | R +0.06 | Even |
| St. John the Baptist Parish | D +29.5 | D +50.6 | D +60 to D +41 | 13,351 | 4,383 | 17,960 | D +0.62 | Even |
| St. Bernard Parish | R +29.8 | R +20.3 | R +12 to R +28 | 6,953 | 10,489 | 17,734 | D +0.09 | D +0.26 |
| Beauregard Parish | R +72.1 | R +67.1 | R +59 to R +75 | 2,587 | 13,154 | 15,934 | R +0.12 | D +0.12 |
| Vernon Parish | R +68.6 | R +62.5 | R +55 to R +71 | 2,871 | 12,444 | 15,493 | Even | D +0.06 |
| Avoyelles Parish | R +43.7 | R +40.1 | R +32 to R +49 | 4,552 | 10,642 | 15,389 | Even | Even |
| Webster Parish | R +36.9 | R +31.2 | R +23 to R +40 | 5,199 | 9,921 | 15,297 | Even | Even |
| Natchitoches Parish | R +22.6 | R +13.7 | R +6 to R +22 | 6,426 | 8,458 | 15,094 | D +0.44 | Even |
| Iberville Parish | R +0.7 | D +15.8 | D +24 to D +7 | 8,614 | 6,266 | 15,104 | D +0.41 | Even |
| West Baton Rouge Parish | R +11.9 | D +6.9 | D +15 to R +1 | 7,622 | 6,637 | 14,469 | D +0.28 | D +0.29 |
| De Soto Parish | R +35.8 | R +24.3 | R +16 to R +33 | 5,293 | 8,687 | 14,124 | D +0.09 | D +0.26 |
| Jefferson Davis Parish | R +61.9 | R +55.7 | R +47 to R +64 | 3,068 | 10,787 | 14,037 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Evangeline Parish | R +49.7 | R +44.9 | R +37 to R +53 | 3,741 | 9,850 | 13,755 | Even | D +0.24 |
| St. James Parish | R +0.9 | D +17.0 | D +26 to D +8 | 6,485 | 4,600 | 11,188 | D +0.34 | Even |
| Pointe Coupee Parish | R +27.8 | R +21.0 | R +13 to R +29 | 4,250 | 6,506 | 10,875 | Even | Even |
| Union Parish | R +57.5 | R +52.9 | R +45 to R +61 | 2,329 | 7,572 | 10,002 | R +0.15 | D +0.08 |
| Sabine Parish | R +70.5 | R +68.0 | R +60 to R +76 | 1,572 | 8,244 | 9,898 | R +0.12 | Even |
| Assumption Parish | R +36.0 | R +30.4 | R +22 to R +39 | 3,347 | 6,272 | 9,741 | R +0.05 | Even |
| East Feliciana Parish | R +22.5 | R +9.1 | R +1 to R +18 | 4,318 | 5,187 | 9,625 | D +0.17 | Even |
| Plaquemines Parish | R +38.5 | R +30.5 | R +23 to R +39 | 3,277 | 6,148 | 9,549 | D +0.11 | Even |
| Morehouse Parish | R +19.6 | R +4.9 | D +4 to R +14 | 4,407 | 4,862 | 9,381 | D +0.24 | Even |
| Richland Parish | R +39.9 | R +30.1 | R +22 to R +38 | 3,116 | 5,799 | 9,017 | D +0.06 | Even |
| Grant Parish | R +77.7 | R +70.6 | R +63 to R +79 | 1,303 | 7,560 | 8,965 | R +0.07 | D +0.10 |
| Allen Parish | R +61.7 | R +54.4 | R +46 to R +63 | 1,941 | 6,577 | 8,615 | Even | D +0.19 |
| Franklin Parish | R +49.6 | R +45.2 | R +37 to R +53 | 2,299 | 6,084 | 8,463 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Concordia Parish | R +29.7 | R +21.4 | R +13 to R +30 | 2,834 | 4,377 | 7,288 | D +0.15 | D +0.16 |
| Jackson Parish | R +48.1 | R +45.2 | R +37 to R +54 | 1,903 | 5,043 | 7,028 | R +0.06 | D +0.54 |
| LaSalle Parish | R +83.4 | R +78.6 | R +70 to R +87 | 702 | 5,877 | 6,637 | R +0.05 | D +0.33 |
| West Feliciana Parish | R +32.4 | R +13.6 | R +6 to R +22 | 2,545 | 3,347 | 5,974 | D +0.25 | Even |
| Bienville Parish | R +18.2 | R +8.5 | D +0 to R +17 | 2,659 | 3,155 | 5,878 | D +0.15 | Even |
| Winn Parish | R +54.9 | R +47.9 | R +40 to R +56 | 1,482 | 4,209 | 5,747 | Even | D +0.67 |
| St. Helena Parish | D +0.8 | D +17.2 | D +26 to D +8 | 3,227 | 2,280 | 5,589 | D +0.29 | Even |
| Claiborne Parish | R +22.3 | R +7.5 | D +1 to R +16 | 2,495 | 2,901 | 5,452 | D +0.22 | Even |
| West Carroll Parish | R +74.7 | R +72.8 | R +65 to R +81 | 580 | 3,685 | 4,301 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Caldwell Parish | R +73.0 | R +69.2 | R +61 to R +78 | 644 | 3,536 | 4,214 | R +0.09 | Even |
| Catahoula Parish | R +50.9 | R +45.6 | R +37 to R +54 | 1,100 | 2,948 | 4,080 | Even | Even |
| Madison Parish | D +6.3 | D +23.9 | D +33 to D +15 | 2,235 | 1,374 | 3,654 | D +0.68 | Even |
| Red River Parish | R +27.8 | R +19.5 | R +11 to R +28 | 1,397 | 2,075 | 3,528 | D +0.14 | Even |
| Cameron Parish | R +86.9 | R +75.4 | R +67 to R +84 | 352 | 2,519 | 2,897 | R +0.09 | D +0.12 |
| East Carroll Parish | D +17.9 | D +36.1 | D +46 to D +27 | 1,464 | 687 | 2,182 | D +0.85 | Even |
| Tensas Parish | R +4.3 | D +9.6 | D +19 to D +1 | 1,019 | 841 | 1,885 | D +0.22 | Even |