2028 forecast · Kentucky · President · 8 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry Kentucky.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +19.9 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +13.1 and R +26.8. Projected votes: 828,648 Democratic, 1,241,086 Republican, 33,335 other, 2,103,069 in all.
<1%Democratic win chance
R +19.92028 margin
R +31.02024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +31.0 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +16.0 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.6 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.5 toward D | 5.2% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.3 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +19.9 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 2,073,309 in 2024, 2,103,069 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Kentucky| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| BeshearHYP | R +13.7 | 1% |
| Buttigieg | R +18.4 | <1% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +18.7 | <1% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +18.8 | <1% |
| CooperHYP | R +18.9 | <1% |
| WalzHYP | R +19.5 | <1% |
| Cuban | R +19.6 | <1% |
| BookerHYP | R +19.6 | <1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +19.6 | <1% |
| BrownHYP | R +19.7 | <1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +19.7 | <1% |
| KellyHYP | R +19.8 | <1% |
| Harris | R +19.9 | <1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +19.9 | <1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +20.0 | <1% |
| Ossoff | R +20.1 | <1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +20.2 | <1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +20.2 | <1% |
| PolisHYP | R +20.3 | <1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +20.4 | <1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +20.6 | <1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +20.9 | <1% |
| Shapiro | R +20.9 | <1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +21.0 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +21.2 | <1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| MooreHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +22.8 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +24.9 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Kentucky| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +17.1 | <1% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +18.2 | <1% |
| CottonHYP | R +18.3 | <1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +18.3 | <1% |
| Rubio | R +18.4 | <1% |
| KempHYP | R +18.4 | <1% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +18.7 | <1% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +18.7 | <1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +18.8 | <1% |
| CruzHYP | R +19.1 | <1% |
| Vance | R +19.9 | <1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +20.0 | <1% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +20.4 | <1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
120 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson County | D +16.8 | D +30.9 | D +39 to D +23 | 224,932 | 118,698 | 349,670 | Even | Even |
| Fayette County | D +18.5 | D +33.9 | D +42 to D +26 | 96,814 | 47,825 | 147,689 | D +0.11 | Even |
| Kenton County | R +22.2 | R +9.3 | R +2 to R +17 | 37,066 | 44,636 | 83,326 | R +0.27 | D +0.25 |
| Boone County | R +37.8 | R +22.7 | R +15 to R +30 | 26,859 | 42,637 | 70,728 | R +0.22 | D +0.58 |
| Warren County | R +24.7 | R +13.7 | R +6 to R +21 | 26,687 | 35,149 | 62,922 | Even | D +0.69 |
| Madison County | R +31.5 | R +23.8 | R +16 to R +32 | 18,913 | 30,729 | 50,598 | R +0.16 | D +0.78 |
| Campbell County | R +20.0 | R +8.7 | R +1 to R +17 | 22,194 | 26,415 | 49,546 | R +0.32 | D +0.18 |
| Hardin County | R +29.8 | R +20.0 | R +12 to R +28 | 19,293 | 28,962 | 49,105 | R +0.13 | D +0.20 |
| Daviess County | R +32.4 | R +24.1 | R +16 to R +32 | 17,665 | 28,874 | 47,302 | R +0.31 | D +0.12 |
| Bullitt County | R +51.7 | R +40.1 | R +32 to R +48 | 13,140 | 30,769 | 44,573 | R +0.30 | D +0.61 |
| Oldham County | R +23.0 | R +4.1 | D +4 to R +12 | 18,760 | 20,377 | 39,923 | R +0.21 | D +0.33 |
| Scott County | R +28.2 | R +15.5 | R +8 to R +23 | 13,486 | 18,439 | 32,506 | R +0.15 | D +0.66 |
| Pulaski County | R +65.9 | R +52.5 | R +45 to R +61 | 7,558 | 24,251 | 32,184 | R +0.28 | D +0.58 |
| McCracken County | R +35.4 | R +26.6 | R +19 to R +34 | 11,380 | 19,633 | 31,449 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Laurel County | R +70.7 | R +57.0 | R +49 to R +65 | 5,984 | 21,852 | 28,191 | R +0.24 | D +0.35 |
| Jessamine County | R +36.5 | R +22.3 | R +15 to R +30 | 10,728 | 16,898 | 28,163 | R +0.23 | D +0.63 |
| Franklin County | R +5.0 | Even | D +8 to R +8 | 12,854 | 12,862 | 26,215 | R +0.22 | D +0.10 |
| Shelby County | R +35.3 | R +20.0 | R +12 to R +28 | 10,080 | 15,127 | 25,654 | R +0.22 | D +0.54 |
| Nelson County | R +42.3 | R +35.5 | R +28 to R +44 | 7,491 | 15,746 | 23,553 | R +0.30 | D +0.49 |
| Pike County | R +66.0 | R +54.6 | R +47 to R +63 | 5,018 | 17,101 | 22,357 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Christian County | R +34.0 | R +27.8 | R +20 to R +36 | 7,804 | 13,807 | 21,923 | D +0.13 | Even |
| Boyd County | R +39.1 | R +30.0 | R +22 to R +38 | 7,048 | 13,095 | 20,446 | R +0.42 | Even |
| Hopkins County | R +51.5 | R +43.2 | R +35 to R +51 | 5,663 | 14,269 | 20,201 | R +0.28 | D +0.06 |
| Barren County | R +53.4 | R +43.3 | R +35 to R +51 | 5,589 | 14,120 | 19,957 | R +0.29 | D +0.34 |
| Henderson County | R +29.6 | R +24.5 | R +17 to R +33 | 7,165 | 11,807 | 19,243 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Calloway County | R +38.6 | R +32.1 | R +24 to R +40 | 6,090 | 11,859 | 18,264 | R +0.21 | D +0.47 |
| Clark County | R +35.9 | R +24.5 | R +17 to R +33 | 6,749 | 11,126 | 18,168 | R +0.32 | D +0.26 |
| Marshall County | R +57.4 | R +49.1 | R +41 to R +57 | 4,369 | 12,801 | 17,405 | R +0.35 | D +0.12 |
| Greenup County | R +51.2 | R +42.3 | R +34 to R +50 | 4,772 | 11,756 | 16,756 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Graves County | R +62.3 | R +53.8 | R +46 to R +62 | 3,804 | 12,661 | 16,679 | R +0.24 | D +0.17 |
| Whitley County | R +70.0 | R +60.5 | R +53 to R +69 | 3,021 | 12,270 | 15,467 | R +0.21 | D +0.28 |
| Woodford County | R +14.5 | R +1.2 | D +7 to R +9 | 7,384 | 7,562 | 15,236 | R +0.32 | D +0.20 |
| Floyd County | R +60.2 | R +51.9 | R +44 to R +60 | 3,539 | 11,173 | 14,943 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Boyle County | R +29.5 | R +24.8 | R +17 to R +33 | 5,484 | 9,101 | 14,826 | R +0.25 | D +0.30 |
| Meade County | R +52.9 | R +43.0 | R +35 to R +51 | 4,047 | 10,154 | 14,427 | R +0.24 | D +0.29 |
| Anderson County | R +49.9 | R +38.3 | R +30 to R +46 | 4,142 | 9,292 | 13,659 | R +0.27 | D +0.63 |
| Muhlenberg County | R +55.0 | R +50.4 | R +42 to R +59 | 3,287 | 9,968 | 13,416 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Montgomery County | R +47.3 | R +39.8 | R +32 to R +48 | 3,890 | 9,033 | 13,119 | R +0.30 | D +0.32 |
| Knox County | R +72.0 | R +61.9 | R +53 to R +70 | 2,427 | 10,322 | 12,907 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Logan County | R +55.7 | R +49.5 | R +41 to R +58 | 3,194 | 9,448 | 12,809 | R +0.30 | D +0.65 |
| Taylor County | R +57.4 | R +52.7 | R +45 to R +61 | 2,956 | 9,544 | 12,672 | R +0.23 | D +0.40 |
| Grayson County | R +62.6 | R +52.7 | R +44 to R +61 | 2,888 | 9,327 | 12,374 | R +0.29 | D +0.59 |
| Mercer County | R +51.3 | R +41.2 | R +33 to R +49 | 3,551 | 8,527 | 12,265 | R +0.29 | D +0.61 |
| Spencer County | R +57.4 | R +41.5 | R +33 to R +50 | 3,525 | 8,519 | 12,205 | R +0.23 | D +0.98 |
| Grant County | R +65.6 | R +55.2 | R +47 to R +64 | 2,660 | 9,213 | 12,040 | R +0.22 | D +0.72 |
| Lincoln County | R +61.9 | R +53.9 | R +46 to R +62 | 2,576 | 8,610 | 11,327 | R +0.29 | D +0.69 |
| Carter County | R +59.2 | R +51.0 | R +43 to R +60 | 2,692 | 8,302 | 11,138 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Ohio County | R +61.1 | R +52.0 | R +44 to R +60 | 2,565 | 8,123 | 10,845 | R +0.30 | D +0.12 |
| Breckinridge County | R +58.9 | R +51.9 | R +44 to R +60 | 2,460 | 7,760 | 10,358 | R +0.32 | D +0.78 |
| Rowan County | R +28.2 | R +23.4 | R +16 to R +31 | 3,902 | 6,290 | 10,363 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Allen County | R +67.7 | R +54.8 | R +47 to R +63 | 2,245 | 7,699 | 10,057 | R +0.25 | D +1.38 |
| Harlan County | R +76.7 | R +65.6 | R +57 to R +74 | 1,635 | 7,883 | 9,603 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Bourbon County | R +34.1 | R +26.1 | R +18 to R +34 | 3,449 | 5,881 | 9,491 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Perry County | R +60.2 | R +50.8 | R +43 to R +59 | 2,274 | 6,967 | 9,352 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Garrard County | R +61.0 | R +49.6 | R +42 to R +58 | 2,314 | 6,868 | 9,304 | R +0.28 | D +0.99 |
| Harrison County | R +49.1 | R +40.2 | R +32 to R +48 | 2,743 | 6,432 | 9,301 | R +0.36 | D +0.66 |
| Johnson County | R +71.6 | R +57.6 | R +49 to R +66 | 1,944 | 7,225 | 9,287 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Adair County | R +71.8 | R +67.0 | R +59 to R +75 | 1,508 | 7,626 | 9,226 | R +0.21 | D +0.46 |
| Simpson County | R +44.5 | R +36.5 | R +28 to R +45 | 2,885 | 6,199 | 9,219 | R +0.23 | D +0.66 |
| Marion County | R +44.1 | R +41.5 | R +33 to R +50 | 2,651 | 6,414 | 9,185 | R +0.27 | D +0.29 |
| Russell County | R +72.8 | R +62.4 | R +54 to R +71 | 1,671 | 7,223 | 8,981 | R +0.24 | D +0.55 |
| Bell County | R +69.3 | R +62.7 | R +55 to R +71 | 1,634 | 7,138 | 8,864 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Hart County | R +60.6 | R +55.2 | R +47 to R +64 | 1,916 | 6,636 | 8,645 | R +0.26 | D +0.65 |
| Wayne County | R +66.6 | R +59.4 | R +51 to R +68 | 1,725 | 6,783 | 8,600 | R +0.30 | D +0.18 |
| Henry County | R +53.3 | R +43.5 | R +35 to R +52 | 2,317 | 5,890 | 8,338 | R +0.28 | D +0.63 |
| Letcher County | R +64.9 | R +53.4 | R +45 to R +62 | 1,785 | 5,881 | 7,776 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Mason County | R +44.3 | R +39.3 | R +31 to R +47 | 2,315 | 5,308 | 7,733 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Rockcastle County | R +74.1 | R +63.4 | R +55 to R +72 | 1,388 | 6,202 | 7,686 | R +0.23 | D +0.23 |
| Larue County | R +61.2 | R +53.1 | R +45 to R +61 | 1,695 | 5,530 | 7,328 | R +0.27 | D +0.34 |
| Trigg County | R +53.1 | R +45.9 | R +38 to R +54 | 1,939 | 5,229 | 7,265 | R +0.32 | D +0.53 |
| Clay County | R +81.4 | R +69.6 | R +61 to R +78 | 1,087 | 6,071 | 7,246 | R +0.14 | Even |
| Fleming County | R +61.4 | R +55.2 | R +47 to R +63 | 1,602 | 5,549 | 7,240 | R +0.28 | D +0.71 |
| Casey County | R +77.1 | R +66.7 | R +58 to R +75 | 1,161 | 5,814 | 7,045 | R +0.23 | D +0.41 |
| Pendleton County | R +64.4 | R +54.7 | R +46 to R +63 | 1,544 | 5,270 | 6,912 | R +0.28 | D +0.22 |
| Washington County | R +51.0 | R +44.4 | R +36 to R +53 | 1,759 | 4,569 | 6,417 | R +0.27 | D +0.38 |
| Edmonson County | R +63.7 | R +55.0 | R +47 to R +64 | 1,416 | 4,875 | 6,371 | R +0.31 | D +0.80 |
| McCreary County | R +79.2 | R +71.4 | R +63 to R +80 | 890 | 5,334 | 6,272 | R +0.14 | D +0.30 |
| Lawrence County | R +67.9 | R +58.1 | R +50 to R +67 | 1,302 | 4,915 | 6,286 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Estill County | R +64.1 | R +53.9 | R +46 to R +63 | 1,389 | 4,645 | 6,117 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Caldwell County | R +58.9 | R +53.2 | R +45 to R +62 | 1,411 | 4,614 | 6,102 | R +0.29 | D +0.11 |
| Jackson County | R +82.7 | R +68.7 | R +60 to R +77 | 929 | 5,003 | 6,000 | R +0.16 | D +0.58 |
| Green County | R +73.1 | R +63.2 | R +55 to R +72 | 1,087 | 4,824 | 5,963 | R +0.26 | D +0.89 |
| Butler County | R +67.1 | R +57.8 | R +49 to R +66 | 1,226 | 4,587 | 5,889 | R +0.27 | D +0.19 |
| Union County | R +59.1 | R +53.2 | R +45 to R +62 | 1,331 | 4,357 | 5,761 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Knott County | R +60.1 | R +53.7 | R +46 to R +62 | 1,288 | 4,281 | 5,646 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Owen County | R +63.6 | R +57.6 | R +49 to R +66 | 1,167 | 4,340 | 5,582 | R +0.31 | D +0.52 |
| Lewis County | R +76.5 | R +66.7 | R +58 to R +75 | 915 | 4,587 | 5,564 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Bath County | R +51.9 | R +47.4 | R +39 to R +56 | 1,436 | 4,021 | 5,529 | R +0.32 | D +0.47 |
| Morgan County | R +64.5 | R +54.3 | R +46 to R +62 | 1,237 | 4,172 | 5,486 | R +0.24 | D +0.67 |
| Webster County | R +58.0 | R +50.3 | R +42 to R +59 | 1,334 | 4,035 | 5,435 | R +0.27 | D +0.12 |
| Todd County | R +58.5 | R +53.2 | R +45 to R +61 | 1,229 | 4,020 | 5,310 | R +0.21 | D +0.75 |
| Powell County | R +55.4 | R +49.5 | R +41 to R +58 | 1,308 | 3,872 | 5,266 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Monroe County | R +78.1 | R +67.2 | R +59 to R +76 | 846 | 4,317 | 5,217 | R +0.18 | Even |
| Metcalfe County | R +65.2 | R +59.5 | R +51 to R +68 | 1,036 | 4,085 | 5,176 | R +0.26 | D +0.43 |
| Magoffin County | R +65.0 | R +55.4 | R +47 to R +64 | 1,116 | 3,886 | 5,070 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Livingston County | R +63.9 | R +56.8 | R +48 to R +65 | 1,039 | 3,773 | 4,877 | R +0.33 | D +0.10 |
| Clinton County | R +77.2 | R +67.4 | R +59 to R +76 | 770 | 3,949 | 4,772 | R +0.20 | D +0.09 |
| Breathitt County | R +60.2 | R +54.7 | R +46 to R +63 | 1,048 | 3,582 | 4,699 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Hancock County | R +48.4 | R +43.2 | R +35 to R +52 | 1,284 | 3,236 | 4,604 | R +0.32 | Even |
| McLean County | R +56.7 | R +49.5 | R +41 to R +58 | 1,137 | 3,368 | 4,572 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Trimble County | R +56.1 | R +48.5 | R +40 to R +57 | 1,095 | 3,161 | 4,308 | R +0.29 | D +0.41 |
| Lyon County | R +54.1 | R +50.6 | R +43 to R +59 | 1,041 | 3,176 | 4,268 | R +0.33 | D +0.76 |
| Bracken County | R +65.8 | R +55.2 | R +47 to R +63 | 918 | 3,184 | 4,150 | R +0.27 | D +0.25 |
| Carroll County | R +51.6 | R +48.0 | R +40 to R +57 | 1,052 | 2,993 | 4,099 | R +0.29 | D +0.41 |
| Leslie County | R +82.2 | R +69.8 | R +61 to R +78 | 598 | 3,364 | 4,014 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Ballard County | R +65.4 | R +57.8 | R +50 to R +66 | 830 | 3,101 | 3,986 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Gallatin County | R +60.7 | R +53.2 | R +45 to R +61 | 919 | 3,011 | 3,984 | R +0.22 | D +0.24 |
| Crittenden County | R +69.3 | R +59.3 | R +51 to R +68 | 779 | 3,053 | 3,882 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Martin County | R +84.2 | R +70.6 | R +62 to R +79 | 506 | 2,944 | 3,479 | R +0.11 | Even |
| Cumberland County | R +71.6 | R +61.2 | R +53 to R +69 | 658 | 2,736 | 3,431 | R +0.26 | D +0.41 |
| Nicholas County | R +49.7 | R +42.1 | R +34 to R +51 | 982 | 2,411 | 3,438 | R +0.34 | D +0.68 |
| Menifee County | R +58.8 | R +51.0 | R +43 to R +59 | 810 | 2,498 | 3,364 | R +0.37 | D +0.81 |
| Elliott County | R +62.9 | R +58.3 | R +50 to R +67 | 580 | 2,201 | 2,822 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Wolfe County | R +51.7 | R +45.6 | R +37 to R +54 | 735 | 1,969 | 2,754 | R +0.35 | D +0.11 |
| Lee County | R +69.2 | R +61.6 | R +53 to R +70 | 495 | 2,086 | 2,627 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Carlisle County | R +68.5 | R +58.9 | R +50 to R +67 | 524 | 2,024 | 2,571 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Fulton County | R +40.2 | R +37.5 | R +29 to R +46 | 635 | 1,399 | 2,054 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Hickman County | R +61.6 | R +57.4 | R +49 to R +66 | 411 | 1,522 | 1,953 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Owsley County | R +77.8 | R +73.3 | R +65 to R +82 | 234 | 1,520 | 1,766 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Robertson County | R +61.9 | R +51.4 | R +43 to R +60 | 286 | 892 | 1,192 | R +0.27 | D +0.82 |