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2028 forecast · Kentucky · Democratic primary

Kentucky Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 68% of runs
57.6%Harris's projected share
512,801Projected primary votes
4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Harris57.6%295,16968%13.6%
Newsom10.3%52,67811%9.2%
Buttigieg10.0%51,0829%6.9%
Ocasio-Cortez5.5%27,9975%5.8%
Ossoff5.1%26,2116%6.4%
Kelly0.4%2,2251%6.1%
Shapiro0.2%1,026<1%5.5%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Kentucky votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Kentucky
Progressive44%
Working class and union22%
Institutional21%
Civil rights coalition9%
Democratic leaning independents3%

Black 15%, Hispanic 2.1%, Asian and other 1.8%, under 30 12.5%, 65 and up 33%, college graduates 41.4%, women 55.2%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 537,905 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 512,801 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Jefferson County131,973Harris58.7%Newsom10.1%
Fayette County51,596Harris57.1%Newsom10.4%
Kenton County21,045Harris56.3%Buttigieg10.7%
Boone County15,715Harris56.6%Buttigieg10.6%
Warren County15,392Harris57.1%Newsom10.4%
Hardin County12,946Harris58.4%Newsom10.1%
Campbell County12,466Harris56.0%Buttigieg11.0%
Daviess County11,048Harris57.1%Newsom10.4%
Madison County10,890Harris56.2%Buttigieg10.7%
Oldham County10,001Harris55.8%Buttigieg11.1%
Bullitt County8,181Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
McCracken County8,027Harris57.9%Newsom10.2%
Franklin County7,678Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Scott County7,543Harris56.6%Buttigieg10.5%
Jessamine County6,268Harris56.7%Buttigieg10.5%
Christian County6,196Harris59.6%Newsom9.8%
Shelby County5,881Harris56.5%Buttigieg10.6%
Pulaski County5,055Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
Nelson County5,031Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Henderson County4,968Harris58.2%Newsom10.1%
Boyd County4,529Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
Hopkins County4,186Harris58.1%Newsom10.1%
Woodford County4,167Harris56.4%Buttigieg10.7%
Laurel County4,118Harris57.0%Buttigieg10.4%
Clark County4,041Harris57.2%Newsom10.3%
Barren County3,826Harris57.6%Newsom10.3%
Calloway County3,804Harris56.4%Buttigieg10.7%
Pike County3,773Harris57.0%Buttigieg10.4%
Boyle County3,664Harris57.7%Newsom10.2%
Greenup County3,250Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
Marshall County3,092Harris57.0%Buttigieg10.4%
Graves County2,929Harris57.6%Newsom10.2%
Meade County2,741Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Floyd County2,617Harris57.2%Newsom10.3%
Anderson County2,588Harris56.7%Buttigieg10.5%
Montgomery County2,548Harris56.9%Buttigieg10.4%
Muhlenberg County2,492Harris57.6%Newsom10.2%
Mercer County2,381Harris57.2%Newsom10.3%
Logan County2,369Harris57.9%Newsom10.2%
Taylor County2,326Harris57.5%Newsom10.3%
Rowan County2,283Harris56.1%Buttigieg10.8%
Whitley County2,272Harris56.7%Buttigieg10.5%
Bourbon County2,266Harris57.2%Newsom10.4%
Spencer County2,050Harris56.8%Buttigieg10.5%
Marion County2,046Harris58.5%Newsom10.1%
Grayson County1,996Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
Carter County1,921Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
Simpson County1,905Harris57.9%Newsom10.2%
Knox County1,904Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Lincoln County1,876Harris57.5%Newsom10.2%
Grant County1,805Harris57.2%Newsom10.3%
Ohio County1,802Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
Harrison County1,789Harris57.0%Newsom10.4%
Breckinridge County1,752Harris57.7%Newsom10.2%
Mason County1,746Harris58.0%Newsom10.2%
Perry County1,705Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Garrard County1,561Harris57.5%Newsom10.3%
Henry County1,537Harris57.7%Newsom10.2%
Bell County1,473Harris57.7%Newsom10.2%
Allen County1,460Harris57.0%Buttigieg10.4%
Hart County1,453Harris57.7%Newsom10.2%
Trigg County1,425Harris57.6%Newsom10.3%
Harlan County1,399Harris57.5%Newsom10.2%
Johnson County1,398Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
Wayne County1,365Harris57.5%Newsom10.3%
Adair County1,362Harris57.0%Newsom10.4%
Letcher County1,321Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Russell County1,290Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Washington County1,280Harris57.8%Newsom10.2%
Larue County1,250Harris57.5%Newsom10.3%
Fleming County1,183Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
Caldwell County1,170Harris58.3%Newsom10.1%
Pendleton County1,095Harris57.2%Newsom10.3%
Union County1,093Harris58.1%Newsom10.1%
Rockcastle County1,074Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
Knott County1,033Harris57.0%Buttigieg10.3%
Clay County1,017Harris57.8%Newsom10.2%
Webster County1,011Harris58.0%Newsom10.2%
Edmonson County991Harris57.6%Newsom10.2%
Todd County989Harris58.4%Newsom10.1%
Estill County988Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Bath County985Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Lawrence County985Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
Powell County956Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Casey County940Harris57.5%Newsom10.2%
Morgan County939Harris57.8%Newsom10.2%
McCreary County902Harris58.8%Newsom10.0%
Hancock County892Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
Butler County891Harris57.6%Newsom10.2%
Owen County889Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
Breathitt County851Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
Green County847Harris57.5%Newsom10.3%
Lyon County842Harris58.4%Newsom10.1%
Metcalfe County832Harris57.7%Newsom10.2%
Magoffin County820Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
McLean County811Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
Livingston County787Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
Lewis County777Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
Carroll County763Harris57.8%Newsom10.2%
Trimble County760Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
Monroe County733Harris57.5%Newsom10.2%
Jackson County708Harris57.6%Newsom10.2%
Ballard County682Harris57.6%Newsom10.2%
Gallatin County680Harris57.5%Newsom10.3%
Bracken County660Harris57.1%Newsom10.3%
Clinton County652Harris57.0%Buttigieg10.4%
Nicholas County620Harris57.6%Newsom10.2%
Crittenden County596Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
Fulton County587Harris60.1%Newsom9.7%
Menifee County553Harris57.3%Newsom10.3%
Leslie County526Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Wolfe County524Harris57.5%Newsom10.2%
Martin County513Harris59.1%Newsom9.9%
Cumberland County508Harris57.2%Newsom10.3%
Elliott County491Harris58.2%Newsom10.1%
Lee County413Harris58.0%Newsom10.2%
Carlisle County402Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%
Hickman County386Harris58.7%Newsom10.0%
Owsley County235Harris57.7%Newsom10.2%
Robertson County186Harris57.4%Newsom10.3%