2026 midterms Results are inFinal forecastSenate D 81%House D 91%Governors D 91%How the forecast did
Search
The Weighting Room
FINAL · RESULTS VS FORECAST
TX GovHinojosa D +7.0forecast R +0.2SC SenAndrews D +4.5forecast D +1.1FL GovDonalds R +1.3forecast R +1.6NE SenRicketts R +6.5forecast I +2.0NE GovPillen R +8.2forecast R +3.6TX SenTalarico D +9.7forecast D +3.7FL SenMoody R +2.9forecast R +3.7IA SenTurek D +4.2forecast D +3.7KS GovHolscher leads D +0.5forecast D +3.8GA GovBottoms D +8.6forecast D +3.9KS SenHamilton D +5.0forecast D +5.0AK SenSullivan leads R +0.9forecast D +5.1OH GovActon D +7.2forecast D +5.7ME SenJackson D +8.1forecast D +5.7NV GovFord D +7.2forecast D +6.1WI GovCrowley D +8.4forecast D +6.5OH SenBrown D +4.2forecast D +6.7MI SenEl-Sayed D +6.6forecast D +8.8

2028 forecast · Kansas · Democratic primary

Kansas Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

ButtigiegFavorite, wins 61% of runs
25.9%Buttigieg's projected share
196,139Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Buttigieg25.9%50,73561%16.9%
Harris18.8%36,7856%8.8%
Ocasio-Cortez14.7%28,84915%10.4%
Newsom14.2%27,80813%10.6%
Ossoff7.6%14,8841%5.5%
Kelly3.8%7,4871%6.2%
Shapiro3.0%5,8362%6.1%
Beshear0.7%1,337<1%3.8%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Kansas votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
ButtigiegHarrisOcasio-Cortez

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Kansas
Progressive49%
Working class and union21%
Institutional19%
Civil rights coalition8%
Democratic leaning independents2%

Black 9.4%, Hispanic 5.6%, Asian and other 3%, under 30 12.7%, 65 and up 32.2%, college graduates 49.7%, women 55.2%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 146,873 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 196,139 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Johnson County59,054Buttigieg33.6%Ocasio-Cortez15.9%
Sedgwick County33,675Harris22.7%Buttigieg21.5%
Shawnee County13,484Harris22.4%Buttigieg22.4%
Wyandotte County10,993Harris48.4%Newsom10.2%
Douglas County10,362Buttigieg28.3%Ocasio-Cortez26.4%
Leavenworth County5,448Buttigieg22.8%Harris22.4%
Riley County4,005Ocasio-Cortez33.0%Buttigieg22.2%
Butler County3,881Buttigieg27.6%Harris16.4%
Reno County3,378Buttigieg22.2%Harris22.1%
Saline County3,058Buttigieg25.8%Harris18.5%
Miami County2,246Buttigieg28.3%Harris16.1%
Harvey County2,223Buttigieg26.8%Harris17.3%
Crawford County2,178Buttigieg27.4%Ocasio-Cortez18.8%
Lyon County1,935Buttigieg23.2%Ocasio-Cortez19.8%
McPherson County1,665Buttigieg30.7%Ocasio-Cortez14.3%
Cowley County1,628Buttigieg24.2%Harris19.5%
Finney County1,588Harris25.1%Buttigieg15.6%
Ellis County1,562Buttigieg28.5%Ocasio-Cortez21.1%
Pottawatomie County1,552Buttigieg29.2%Ocasio-Cortez15.0%
Geary County1,522Harris31.2%Ocasio-Cortez14.8%
Franklin County1,495Buttigieg25.8%Harris18.1%
Montgomery County1,376Harris22.7%Buttigieg22.4%
Ford County1,192Harris23.8%Buttigieg16.3%
Jefferson County1,192Buttigieg26.0%Harris18.3%
Sumner County1,141Buttigieg26.3%Harris18.2%
Barton County1,074Buttigieg24.7%Harris19.6%
Labette County968Harris23.8%Buttigieg21.7%
Dickinson County924Buttigieg27.0%Harris18.1%
Cherokee County892Buttigieg24.7%Harris20.0%
Atchison County883Buttigieg22.4%Harris19.5%
Osage County844Buttigieg25.9%Harris18.8%
Neosho County743Buttigieg25.3%Harris19.4%
Jackson County738Buttigieg25.4%Harris18.7%
Seward County689Harris32.2%Newsom13.4%
Bourbon County684Buttigieg24.7%Harris19.4%
Marion County634Buttigieg29.9%Harris15.9%
Allen County631Buttigieg24.2%Harris20.9%
Marshall County523Buttigieg24.6%Harris21.1%
Nemaha County510Buttigieg27.8%Harris17.3%
Brown County467Buttigieg23.5%Harris22.1%
Linn County463Buttigieg25.1%Harris20.6%
Coffey County436Buttigieg24.7%Harris20.4%
Pratt County433Buttigieg26.7%Harris17.8%
Clay County421Buttigieg26.1%Harris20.0%
Wabaunsee County413Buttigieg26.4%Harris17.5%
Rice County409Buttigieg25.5%Harris17.9%
Cloud County381Buttigieg24.9%Harris18.1%
Kingman County379Buttigieg27.4%Harris17.4%
Anderson County359Harris22.9%Buttigieg21.8%
Thomas County339Buttigieg30.7%Ocasio-Cortez16.0%
Doniphan County331Buttigieg24.8%Harris18.9%
Wilson County331Buttigieg25.8%Harris19.9%
Pawnee County311Harris31.1%Buttigieg17.2%
Morris County308Buttigieg30.4%Harris16.5%
Russell County307Buttigieg24.8%Harris20.7%
Ellsworth County301Harris22.9%Buttigieg22.4%
Mitchell County287Buttigieg28.3%Harris17.2%
Greenwood County271Buttigieg26.4%Harris19.9%
Ottawa County271Buttigieg28.6%Harris17.2%
Grant County236Buttigieg21.2%Harris18.7%
Harper County236Buttigieg25.8%Harris19.5%
Washington County233Buttigieg28.2%Harris17.9%
Sherman County229Buttigieg25.6%Harris18.3%
Phillips County222Buttigieg25.2%Harris20.7%
Rooks County222Harris23.7%Buttigieg22.7%
Republic County214Buttigieg26.0%Harris20.0%
Norton County210Harris23.8%Buttigieg22.3%
Gray County195Buttigieg27.3%Harris16.8%
Barber County180Buttigieg28.3%Harris17.0%
Stafford County179Buttigieg28.1%Harris17.2%
Scott County178Buttigieg28.9%Harris15.5%
Smith County173Buttigieg27.7%Harris19.0%
Chase County161Buttigieg27.4%Harris18.2%
Stevens County157Buttigieg21.9%Harris20.7%
Meade County154Buttigieg25.4%Harris17.9%
Osborne County151Buttigieg27.4%Harris18.9%
Rush County145Buttigieg25.1%Harris19.7%
Woodson County141Buttigieg27.4%Harris19.1%
Lincoln County135Buttigieg27.7%Harris18.4%
Trego County133Buttigieg30.4%Harris17.5%
Chautauqua County128Buttigieg23.4%Harris22.0%
Decatur County128Buttigieg26.3%Harris21.2%
Graham County127Harris27.2%Buttigieg21.1%
Haskell County124Buttigieg22.1%Harris18.6%
Cheyenne County121Buttigieg25.9%Harris20.0%
Jewell County120Buttigieg24.1%Harris22.7%
Edwards County119Buttigieg23.3%Harris19.9%
Kearny County118Buttigieg22.1%Harris20.5%
Logan County117Buttigieg27.6%Harris17.5%
Elk County113Buttigieg26.1%Harris20.1%
Rawlins County112Buttigieg25.2%Harris20.6%
Gove County107Buttigieg26.1%Harris19.2%
Ness County103Buttigieg27.3%Harris17.4%
Sheridan County101Buttigieg27.1%Harris18.2%
Kiowa County95Buttigieg26.6%Harris17.2%
Morton County92Harris24.8%Buttigieg20.5%
Clark County84Buttigieg31.1%Harris15.8%
Hodgeman County84Buttigieg29.4%Harris17.7%
Hamilton County80Buttigieg19.6%Ocasio-Cortez18.6%
Lane County75Buttigieg24.0%Harris22.3%
Comanche County74Buttigieg25.4%Harris21.2%
Wichita County73Buttigieg22.5%Harris22.3%
Stanton County68Buttigieg22.3%Harris17.9%
Wallace County53Buttigieg25.7%Harris20.0%
Greeley County51Buttigieg28.7%Harris16.5%