2028 forecast · Kansas · President · 6 electoral votes
The Republican is likely to carry Kansas.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +3.7 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +1.9 and R +9.2. Projected votes: 637,104 Democratic, 685,478 Republican, 25,196 other, 1,347,778 in all.
20%Democratic win chance
R +3.72028 margin
R +16.42024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +16.4 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +3.5 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.5 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.6 toward D | 5.5% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +3.7 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 1,327,591 in 2024, 1,347,778 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Kansas| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +1.7 | 35% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +2.5 | 28% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +2.6 | 27% |
| CooperHYP | R +2.7 | 27% |
| Cuban | R +3.1 | 23% |
| Harris | R +3.3 | 23% |
| BookerHYP | R +3.3 | 22% |
| BeshearHYP | R +3.3 | 22% |
| Ossoff | R +3.4 | 22% |
| WalzHYP | R +3.4 | 21% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +3.5 | 21% |
| BrownHYP | R +3.5 | 21% |
| KellyHYP | R +3.6 | 21% |
| MurphyHYP | R +3.6 | 20% |
| KhannaHYP | R +3.6 | 20% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +3.6 | 20% |
| Generic Democrat | R +3.7 | 20% |
| PolisHYP | R +3.7 | 20% |
| GallegoHYP | R +4.0 | 18% |
| WarnockHYP | R +4.1 | 17% |
| Shapiro | R +4.2 | 16% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +4.3 | 16% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +4.3 | 16% |
| CrockettHYP | R +4.4 | 15% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +4.5 | 15% |
| MooreHYP | R +4.9 | 13% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +5.1 | 12% |
| Newsom | R +5.5 | 10% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +7.4 | 4% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Kansas| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | R +2.9 | 25% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +3.1 | 24% |
| HaleyHYP | R +3.2 | 23% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +3.2 | 23% |
| CruzHYP | R +3.2 | 23% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +3.3 | 23% |
| KempHYP | R +3.3 | 22% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +3.4 | 22% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +3.4 | 21% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +3.4 | 21% |
| Rubio | R +3.5 | 21% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +3.6 | 20% |
| Vance | R +3.7 | 20% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
105 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson County | D +8.6 | D +25.1 | D +32 to D +18 | 219,066 | 131,183 | 356,985 | R +0.10 | D +0.08 |
| Sedgwick County | R +14.1 | R +2.1 | D +5 to R +9 | 105,543 | 110,050 | 219,522 | R +0.09 | D +0.15 |
| Shawnee County | D +0.5 | D +9.4 | D +16 to D +3 | 43,558 | 36,069 | 81,269 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Douglas County | D +38.6 | D +50.6 | D +58 to D +43 | 46,231 | 15,173 | 62,524 | D +0.07 | Even |
| Wyandotte County | D +24.2 | D +38.7 | D +46 to D +32 | 34,002 | 15,014 | 49,837 | D +0.30 | Even |
| Leavenworth County | R +23.3 | R +11.9 | R +5 to R +19 | 16,138 | 20,515 | 37,434 | R +0.21 | D +0.24 |
| Butler County | R +42.0 | R +29.0 | R +22 to R +36 | 11,477 | 20,857 | 32,990 | R +0.26 | D +0.30 |
| Riley County | D +1.8 | D +14.1 | D +21 to D +7 | 14,945 | 11,241 | 26,839 | D +0.18 | Even |
| Reno County | R +35.2 | R +27.8 | R +21 to R +35 | 9,396 | 16,638 | 26,568 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Saline County | R +32.2 | R +22.1 | R +16 to R +29 | 8,668 | 13,601 | 22,707 | R +0.30 | D +0.05 |
| Miami County | R +40.3 | R +29.1 | R +22 to R +36 | 6,793 | 12,383 | 19,547 | R +0.33 | D +0.63 |
| Crawford County | R +25.7 | R +18.7 | R +12 to R +25 | 6,698 | 9,770 | 16,787 | R +0.22 | D +0.07 |
| Harvey County | R +21.5 | R +12.1 | R +5 to R +19 | 6,825 | 8,700 | 15,821 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Pottawatomie County | R +48.6 | R +33.4 | R +27 to R +40 | 4,679 | 9,367 | 14,330 | R +0.22 | D +0.77 |
| Ellis County | R +47.0 | R +36.6 | R +30 to R +43 | 4,417 | 9,525 | 14,209 | R +0.17 | D +0.05 |
| McPherson County | R +41.9 | R +34.3 | R +28 to R +41 | 4,542 | 9,296 | 14,109 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Lyon County | R +15.0 | R +4.6 | D +2 to R +11 | 6,350 | 6,961 | 13,598 | R +0.05 | D +0.07 |
| Cowley County | R +41.0 | R +34.0 | R +27 to R +41 | 4,329 | 8,793 | 13,354 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Franklin County | R +40.9 | R +33.3 | R +26 to R +40 | 4,185 | 8,368 | 12,813 | R +0.32 | D +0.15 |
| Montgomery County | R +52.0 | R +45.4 | R +38 to R +52 | 3,174 | 8,447 | 11,827 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Finney County | R +35.3 | R +17.7 | R +11 to R +25 | 4,274 | 6,114 | 10,577 | D +0.25 | D +0.14 |
| Sumner County | R +51.1 | R +41.1 | R +34 to R +48 | 3,011 | 7,221 | 10,435 | R +0.32 | D +0.06 |
| Barton County | R +57.6 | R +47.3 | R +40 to R +54 | 2,653 | 7,409 | 10,220 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Jefferson County | R +37.7 | R +29.4 | R +23 to R +36 | 3,379 | 6,200 | 9,779 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Geary County | R +18.0 | R +6.2 | D +0 to R +13 | 4,370 | 4,951 | 9,524 | D +0.27 | D +0.07 |
| Dickinson County | R +55.8 | R +45.6 | R +39 to R +53 | 2,429 | 6,508 | 9,086 | R +0.34 | D +0.27 |
| Cherokee County | R +53.9 | R +47.1 | R +40 to R +54 | 2,209 | 6,148 | 8,508 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Ford County | R +39.1 | R +20.3 | R +13 to R +27 | 3,190 | 4,816 | 8,149 | D +0.20 | D +0.15 |
| Osage County | R +49.3 | R +41.2 | R +34 to R +48 | 2,223 | 5,345 | 7,751 | R +0.38 | D +0.05 |
| Labette County | R +38.8 | R +33.2 | R +26 to R +40 | 2,501 | 4,988 | 7,616 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Atchison County | R +38.1 | R +32.8 | R +26 to R +40 | 2,427 | 4,794 | 7,367 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Neosho County | R +49.0 | R +43.5 | R +37 to R +51 | 1,835 | 4,665 | 6,619 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Bourbon County | R +55.2 | R +49.8 | R +43 to R +57 | 1,617 | 4,823 | 6,559 | R +0.31 | D +0.09 |
| Jackson County | R +43.4 | R +34.4 | R +27 to R +42 | 2,083 | 4,273 | 6,477 | R +0.30 | D +0.22 |
| Marion County | R +50.2 | R +43.4 | R +37 to R +50 | 1,595 | 4,040 | 5,754 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Nemaha County | R +68.0 | R +57.5 | R +51 to R +65 | 1,151 | 4,272 | 5,503 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Allen County | R +47.2 | R +43.4 | R +37 to R +50 | 1,507 | 3,818 | 5,439 | R +0.37 | D +0.05 |
| Linn County | R +65.5 | R +54.7 | R +48 to R +62 | 1,123 | 3,834 | 5,031 | R +0.31 | D +0.66 |
| Marshall County | R +50.3 | R +43.6 | R +37 to R +51 | 1,315 | 3,346 | 4,764 | R +0.43 | Even |
| Seward County | R +39.6 | R +21.0 | R +13 to R +29 | 1,731 | 2,650 | 4,455 | D +0.41 | D +0.08 |
| Coffey County | R +56.6 | R +47.4 | R +40 to R +55 | 1,122 | 3,144 | 4,342 | R +0.35 | D +0.28 |
| Pratt County | R +52.4 | R +45.0 | R +38 to R +52 | 1,097 | 2,892 | 4,062 | R +0.32 | D +0.09 |
| Brown County | R +48.9 | R +40.8 | R +34 to R +48 | 1,164 | 2,766 | 4,009 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Clay County | R +56.8 | R +47.1 | R +40 to R +54 | 1,024 | 2,850 | 3,960 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Cloud County | R +61.5 | R +55.0 | R +48 to R +62 | 872 | 3,001 | 3,938 | R +0.30 | D +0.05 |
| Rice County | R +57.7 | R +48.6 | R +42 to R +55 | 990 | 2,865 | 3,925 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Wabaunsee County | R +49.8 | R +40.5 | R +34 to R +47 | 1,130 | 2,668 | 3,873 | R +0.32 | D +0.31 |
| Anderson County | R +60.8 | R +56.0 | R +49 to R +63 | 823 | 2,922 | 3,810 | R +0.31 | D +0.43 |
| Kingman County | R +61.1 | R +51.9 | R +45 to R +59 | 881 | 2,786 | 3,735 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Thomas County | R +66.9 | R +56.1 | R +49 to R +63 | 787 | 2,796 | 3,643 | R +0.20 | D +0.09 |
| Doniphan County | R +64.5 | R +57.6 | R +51 to R +65 | 755 | 2,807 | 3,616 | R +0.26 | D +0.26 |
| Wilson County | R +63.5 | R +54.6 | R +48 to R +62 | 759 | 2,586 | 3,403 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Russell County | R +62.5 | R +53.9 | R +47 to R +61 | 720 | 2,403 | 3,179 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Mitchell County | R +66.3 | R +57.8 | R +51 to R +65 | 633 | 2,373 | 3,045 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Ottawa County | R +67.7 | R +57.7 | R +51 to R +65 | 617 | 2,301 | 2,971 | R +0.28 | D +0.17 |
| Greenwood County | R +61.9 | R +54.4 | R +47 to R +62 | 608 | 2,062 | 2,714 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Morris County | R +47.4 | R +38.6 | R +32 to R +45 | 809 | 1,826 | 2,683 | R +0.44 | D +0.07 |
| Ellsworth County | R +53.1 | R +43.4 | R +37 to R +50 | 735 | 1,864 | 2,643 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Washington County | R +70.2 | R +61.4 | R +55 to R +68 | 497 | 2,075 | 2,613 | R +0.28 | D +0.11 |
| Phillips County | R +75.4 | R +68.2 | R +61 to R +75 | 401 | 2,127 | 2,577 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Sherman County | R +70.2 | R +63.1 | R +56 to R +70 | 461 | 2,038 | 2,549 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Pawnee County | R +52.4 | R +45.7 | R +39 to R +53 | 676 | 1,814 | 2,534 | R +0.31 | Even |
| Harper County | R +65.2 | R +57.2 | R +50 to R +64 | 517 | 1,901 | 2,462 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Rooks County | R +72.1 | R +64.2 | R +57 to R +71 | 418 | 1,918 | 2,367 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Republic County | R +67.0 | R +59.8 | R +53 to R +67 | 461 | 1,836 | 2,338 | R +0.36 | D +0.08 |
| Gray County | R +70.0 | R +58.6 | R +52 to R +65 | 446 | 1,707 | 2,185 | R +0.19 | D +0.07 |
| Norton County | R +68.9 | R +58.5 | R +52 to R +66 | 443 | 1,697 | 2,178 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Grant County | R +63.9 | R +46.4 | R +39 to R +53 | 558 | 1,525 | 2,115 | Even | D +0.21 |
| Barber County | R +73.1 | R +67.2 | R +60 to R +74 | 338 | 1,725 | 2,092 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Scott County | R +76.3 | R +64.4 | R +58 to R +71 | 354 | 1,637 | 2,028 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Smith County | R +69.6 | R +62.2 | R +55 to R +69 | 358 | 1,540 | 1,927 | R +0.33 | D +0.20 |
| Stafford County | R +65.2 | R +54.8 | R +48 to R +62 | 411 | 1,407 | 1,850 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Stevens County | R +76.7 | R +62.2 | R +55 to R +69 | 323 | 1,386 | 1,736 | R +0.08 | D +0.06 |
| Osborne County | R +70.0 | R +61.8 | R +55 to R +69 | 306 | 1,300 | 1,636 | R +0.31 | Even |
| Meade County | R +70.5 | R +58.5 | R +52 to R +66 | 330 | 1,262 | 1,614 | R +0.13 | D +0.08 |
| Rush County | R +66.6 | R +58.6 | R +52 to R +66 | 312 | 1,196 | 1,533 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Trego County | R +72.3 | R +61.6 | R +55 to R +69 | 279 | 1,177 | 1,480 | R +0.33 | D +0.05 |
| Chautauqua County | R +72.1 | R +65.2 | R +58 to R +72 | 251 | 1,194 | 1,462 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Jewell County | R +77.2 | R +71.2 | R +64 to R +79 | 206 | 1,229 | 1,460 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Woodson County | R +62.1 | R +55.5 | R +49 to R +62 | 318 | 1,114 | 1,452 | R +0.38 | D +0.22 |
| Lincoln County | R +66.3 | R +58.0 | R +51 to R +65 | 297 | 1,116 | 1,436 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Chase County | R +51.6 | R +43.3 | R +37 to R +50 | 387 | 980 | 1,389 | R +0.34 | D +0.27 |
| Cheyenne County | R +70.4 | R +59.5 | R +53 to R +67 | 273 | 1,074 | 1,372 | R +0.30 | D +0.19 |
| Decatur County | R +70.0 | R +60.0 | R +53 to R +67 | 267 | 1,068 | 1,353 | R +0.35 | D +0.07 |
| Sheridan County | R +81.4 | R +70.8 | R +64 to R +78 | 194 | 1,134 | 1,345 | R +0.19 | D +0.05 |
| Gove County | R +78.2 | R +70.8 | R +64 to R +78 | 193 | 1,131 | 1,342 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Logan County | R +73.3 | R +62.2 | R +55 to R +69 | 247 | 1,064 | 1,337 | R +0.22 | D +0.05 |
| Ness County | R +80.7 | R +75.5 | R +69 to R +82 | 158 | 1,131 | 1,313 | R +0.16 | D +0.19 |
| Rawlins County | R +74.3 | R +63.7 | R +57 to R +71 | 231 | 1,043 | 1,301 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Elk County | R +70.9 | R +62.5 | R +56 to R +70 | 236 | 1,022 | 1,279 | R +0.30 | D +0.14 |
| Kearny County | R +69.9 | R +57.2 | R +50 to R +64 | 261 | 960 | 1,243 | R +0.12 | D +0.18 |
| Graham County | R +66.8 | R +58.5 | R +52 to R +65 | 251 | 959 | 1,231 | R +0.31 | Even |
| Haskell County | R +65.1 | R +53.6 | R +47 to R +61 | 279 | 927 | 1,220 | R +0.13 | D +0.10 |
| Edwards County | R +66.1 | R +53.4 | R +46 to R +60 | 261 | 859 | 1,134 | R +0.24 | D +0.12 |
| Kiowa County | R +72.3 | R +63.8 | R +57 to R +71 | 191 | 864 | 1,071 | R +0.22 | D +0.20 |
| Clark County | R +74.1 | R +63.2 | R +56 to R +70 | 173 | 769 | 958 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Morton County | R +74.8 | R +63.1 | R +56 to R +70 | 172 | 764 | 951 | R +0.18 | D +0.06 |
| Hodgeman County | R +71.5 | R +59.6 | R +53 to R +67 | 176 | 696 | 884 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Comanche County | R +69.7 | R +61.5 | R +54 to R +69 | 156 | 659 | 831 | R +0.35 | D +0.17 |
| Wichita County | R +74.7 | R +63.0 | R +56 to R +70 | 143 | 630 | 784 | R +0.20 | D +0.14 |
| Hamilton County | R +67.3 | R +49.6 | R +43 to R +57 | 192 | 572 | 776 | Even | D +0.59 |
| Lane County | R +72.9 | R +61.7 | R +55 to R +69 | 146 | 618 | 781 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Wallace County | R +85.9 | R +77.2 | R +70 to R +84 | 79 | 618 | 706 | R +0.14 | Even |
| Stanton County | R +64.7 | R +49.2 | R +42 to R +56 | 151 | 445 | 606 | Even | D +0.61 |
| Greeley County | R +74.4 | R +62.0 | R +55 to R +69 | 102 | 438 | 548 | R +0.19 | Even |