2028 forecast · Indiana · Democratic primary

Indiana Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 68% of runs

57.5%Harris's projected share

619,816Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	57.5%	356,541	68%	19.3%
Newsom	10.2%	63,381	10%	8.0%
Buttigieg	10.0%	62,205	10%	11.5%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.5%	33,887	5%	6.3%
Ossoff	5.1%	31,707	6%	8.2%
Kelly	0.4%	2,672	<1%	6.1%
Shapiro	0.2%	1,241	<1%	4.5%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Indiana votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Indiana

Progressive38%

Working class and union19%

Institutional15%

Democratic leaning independents13%

Civil rights coalition7%

Moderate independents3%

Black 18.5%, Hispanic 6.7%, Asian and other 2.9%, under 30 12.3%, 65 and up 30.4%, college graduates 34.6%, women 54.5%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 497,927 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 619,816 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Marion County	108,107	Harris	60.2%	Newsom	9.7%
Lake County	61,907	Harris	60.2%	Newsom	9.7%
Hamilton County	43,275	Harris	54.8%	Buttigieg	11.8%
Allen County	37,083	Harris	57.9%	Newsom	10.2%
St. Joseph County	26,912	Harris	57.9%	Newsom	10.2%
Porter County	18,163	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Hendricks County	17,802	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Vanderburgh County	15,735	Harris	57.4%	Newsom	10.3%
Tippecanoe County	14,995	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Johnson County	14,109	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Monroe County	13,890	Harris	55.1%	Buttigieg	11.6%
Elkhart County	13,488	Harris	57.4%	Newsom	10.3%
Clark County	12,089	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Madison County	10,882	Harris	57.6%	Newsom	10.2%
LaPorte County	10,506	Harris	58.2%	Newsom	10.1%
Delaware County	9,230	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Floyd County	8,382	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Vigo County	8,321	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.3%
Boone County	8,202	Harris	55.0%	Buttigieg	11.7%
Hancock County	8,177	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Howard County	7,318	Harris	57.8%	Newsom	10.2%
Bartholomew County	6,630	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Warrick County	5,953	Harris	55.4%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Kosciusko County	5,369	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Morgan County	5,164	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Wayne County	4,856	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Grant County	4,355	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Dearborn County	3,777	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Dubois County	3,516	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Henry County	3,283	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Marshall County	3,211	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Lawrence County	3,181	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Harrison County	3,167	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Shelby County	3,095	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
DeKalb County	3,054	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Noble County	2,902	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Jackson County	2,779	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Huntington County	2,737	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Whitley County	2,699	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Steuben County	2,662	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Putnam County	2,661	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Montgomery County	2,579	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Gibson County	2,435	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Jefferson County	2,411	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Jasper County	2,346	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Cass County	2,326	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Knox County	2,314	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Miami County	2,207	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Greene County	2,138	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Wabash County	2,137	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Posey County	2,082	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Adams County	2,069	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Wells County	2,005	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Ripley County	1,990	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Clinton County	1,956	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Washington County	1,817	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
White County	1,769	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Clay County	1,729	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Decatur County	1,706	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Spencer County	1,670	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Jennings County	1,643	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Franklin County	1,594	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Starke County	1,558	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Daviess County	1,556	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Perry County	1,542	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Randolph County	1,540	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Scott County	1,501	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Owen County	1,486	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Brown County	1,479	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.3%
LaGrange County	1,472	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Fayette County	1,424	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Sullivan County	1,374	Harris	57.2%	Newsom	10.3%
Carroll County	1,365	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Fulton County	1,335	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Orange County	1,287	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Tipton County	1,226	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Jay County	1,168	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Vermillion County	1,137	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Rush County	1,124	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Fountain County	1,103	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Newton County	972	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Parke County	961	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Pike County	867	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Pulaski County	835	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Blackford County	767	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Crawford County	750	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Martin County	675	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Benton County	621	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Warren County	613	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Switzerland County	586	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Union County	503	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Ohio County	442	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%

NewsomFavorite, wins 29% of runs

26.2%Newsom's projected share