2028 forecast · Indiana · President · 11 electoral votes
The Republican is likely to carry Indiana.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +4.8 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +2.2 and R +11.7. Projected votes: 1,405,416 Democratic, 1,545,683 Republican, 51,278 other, 3,002,377 in all.
19%Democratic win chance
R +4.82028 margin
R +19.32024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +19.3 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +3.2 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.4 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.7 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.2 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +4.8 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 2,933,700 in 2024, 3,002,378 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Indiana| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +2.2 | 34% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +3.5 | 26% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +3.9 | 23% |
| Harris | R +4.0 | 23% |
| CooperHYP | R +4.0 | 23% |
| Cuban | R +4.3 | 22% |
| BookerHYP | R +4.3 | 21% |
| BeshearHYP | R +4.4 | 21% |
| BrownHYP | R +4.4 | 21% |
| Ossoff | R +4.5 | 20% |
| WalzHYP | R +4.6 | 20% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +4.7 | 19% |
| Generic Democrat | R +4.8 | 19% |
| KellyHYP | R +4.8 | 19% |
| GallegoHYP | R +4.8 | 19% |
| WarnockHYP | R +4.8 | 19% |
| CrockettHYP | R +4.9 | 18% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +4.9 | 18% |
| KhannaHYP | R +5.1 | 17% |
| MurphyHYP | R +5.1 | 17% |
| PolisHYP | R +5.2 | 17% |
| Shapiro | R +5.3 | 16% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +5.3 | 16% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +5.6 | 15% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +5.7 | 15% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +5.8 | 14% |
| MooreHYP | R +6.0 | 13% |
| Newsom | R +6.8 | 10% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +8.6 | 6% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Indiana| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +3.1 | 28% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +3.5 | 26% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +3.6 | 25% |
| CottonHYP | R +3.6 | 25% |
| KempHYP | R +3.8 | 24% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +3.9 | 24% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +4.0 | 23% |
| Rubio | R +4.0 | 23% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +4.0 | 23% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +4.1 | 22% |
| CruzHYP | R +4.2 | 22% |
| Vance | R +4.8 | 19% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +4.8 | 19% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
92 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion County | D +28.1 | D +50.3 | D +58 to D +42 | 257,229 | 85,067 | 348,190 | D +0.30 | Even |
| Lake County | D +5.7 | D +22.2 | D +30 to D +14 | 127,904 | 81,496 | 212,552 | D +0.41 | Even |
| Hamilton County | R +6.2 | D +17.6 | D +26 to D +9 | 122,796 | 85,976 | 212,771 | R +0.12 | D +0.48 |
| Allen County | R +12.7 | D +3.0 | D +11 to R +5 | 85,337 | 80,381 | 168,596 | Even | D +0.23 |
| St. Joseph County | D +1.5 | D +13.2 | D +21 to D +6 | 61,415 | 47,086 | 110,218 | Even | Even |
| Hendricks County | R +21.9 | R +0.7 | D +7 to R +9 | 43,984 | 44,614 | 90,201 | R +0.07 | D +0.71 |
| Porter County | R +10.7 | D +1.2 | D +9 to R +7 | 43,010 | 42,027 | 86,613 | R +0.09 | D +0.10 |
| Johnson County | R +34.9 | R +16.1 | R +8 to R +24 | 34,091 | 47,127 | 82,653 | R +0.18 | D +0.67 |
| Vanderburgh County | R +12.8 | R +1.6 | D +6 to R +10 | 36,120 | 37,297 | 74,522 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Elkhart County | R +32.8 | R +19.1 | R +11 to R +27 | 27,864 | 40,981 | 69,869 | Even | D +0.10 |
| Tippecanoe County | R +0.2 | D +8.2 | D +16 to D +0 | 35,175 | 29,822 | 66,296 | R +0.06 | D +0.09 |
| Clark County | R +20.7 | R +7.2 | D +1 to R +15 | 28,466 | 32,902 | 62,441 | R +0.12 | D +0.52 |
| Monroe County | D +27.8 | D +36.2 | D +44 to D +28 | 39,698 | 18,581 | 59,218 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Madison County | R +27.5 | R +15.7 | R +8 to R +24 | 23,931 | 32,853 | 57,843 | R +0.14 | D +0.32 |
| Hancock County | R +34.3 | R +15.8 | R +8 to R +24 | 20,547 | 28,269 | 49,748 | R +0.23 | D +1.20 |
| LaPorte County | R +14.4 | R +4.7 | D +3 to R +13 | 22,259 | 24,461 | 47,538 | R +0.06 | Even |
| Delaware County | R +16.1 | R +9.2 | R +1 to R +17 | 20,664 | 24,867 | 46,353 | R +0.18 | D +0.07 |
| Boone County | R +16.3 | D +6.4 | D +14 to R +2 | 23,355 | 20,552 | 44,800 | R +0.21 | D +0.83 |
| Floyd County | R +15.8 | R +1.0 | D +7 to R +9 | 20,485 | 20,902 | 42,121 | R +0.20 | D +0.14 |
| Vigo County | R +18.5 | R +11.8 | R +4 to R +20 | 17,802 | 22,544 | 41,106 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Howard County | R +35.9 | R +26.2 | R +18 to R +34 | 14,195 | 24,289 | 39,191 | R +0.13 | D +0.05 |
| Morgan County | R +55.3 | R +40.4 | R +32 to R +49 | 10,791 | 25,429 | 36,859 | R +0.25 | D +0.56 |
| Bartholomew County | R +27.9 | R +14.2 | R +6 to R +22 | 15,133 | 20,150 | 35,995 | R +0.20 | D +0.22 |
| Kosciusko County | R +53.3 | R +37.7 | R +30 to R +46 | 10,755 | 23,786 | 35,192 | R +0.19 | D +0.09 |
| Warrick County | R +30.7 | R +13.7 | R +6 to R +22 | 14,670 | 19,317 | 34,534 | R +0.27 | D +0.40 |
| Dearborn County | R +59.2 | R +43.6 | R +36 to R +52 | 7,567 | 19,248 | 27,230 | R +0.25 | D +0.28 |
| Wayne County | R +33.0 | R +25.3 | R +17 to R +34 | 9,832 | 16,507 | 26,790 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Grant County | R +42.6 | R +34.3 | R +26 to R +43 | 8,121 | 16,612 | 25,190 | R +0.14 | D +0.05 |
| Lawrence County | R +51.9 | R +41.1 | R +33 to R +50 | 6,249 | 14,983 | 21,602 | R +0.27 | D +0.18 |
| Dubois County | R +43.2 | R +30.1 | R +22 to R +38 | 7,366 | 13,712 | 21,521 | R +0.25 | D +0.10 |
| Harrison County | R +47.8 | R +34.3 | R +26 to R +43 | 6,755 | 13,822 | 20,937 | R +0.29 | D +0.25 |
| Henry County | R +48.5 | R +39.4 | R +31 to R +48 | 6,222 | 14,305 | 20,888 | R +0.24 | D +0.10 |
| DeKalb County | R +47.9 | R +36.3 | R +28 to R +45 | 6,389 | 13,666 | 20,409 | R +0.27 | D +0.35 |
| Shelby County | R +48.9 | R +36.2 | R +28 to R +44 | 6,295 | 13,447 | 20,103 | R +0.24 | D +0.20 |
| Marshall County | R +44.2 | R +32.7 | R +25 to R +41 | 6,555 | 12,928 | 19,829 | R +0.21 | D +0.13 |
| Noble County | R +52.2 | R +40.3 | R +32 to R +49 | 5,643 | 13,257 | 19,202 | R +0.20 | D +0.12 |
| Jackson County | R +56.2 | R +44.8 | R +37 to R +53 | 5,062 | 13,263 | 18,638 | R +0.18 | D +0.26 |
| Whitley County | R +50.9 | R +36.5 | R +28 to R +45 | 5,685 | 12,232 | 18,254 | R +0.26 | D +0.33 |
| Huntington County | R +49.3 | R +39.6 | R +31 to R +48 | 5,346 | 12,348 | 18,015 | R +0.26 | D +0.17 |
| Putnam County | R +52.9 | R +45.5 | R +37 to R +54 | 4,617 | 12,320 | 17,237 | R +0.20 | D +0.38 |
| Montgomery County | R +49.1 | R +38.5 | R +30 to R +47 | 5,139 | 11,575 | 17,020 | R +0.24 | D +0.32 |
| Steuben County | R +42.8 | R +35.0 | R +27 to R +43 | 5,308 | 11,014 | 16,597 | R +0.27 | D +0.12 |
| Jasper County | R +55.2 | R +42.8 | R +35 to R +51 | 4,572 | 11,419 | 16,252 | R +0.23 | D +0.36 |
| Gibson County | R +52.3 | R +42.1 | R +34 to R +51 | 4,558 | 11,199 | 16,030 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Knox County | R +51.2 | R +43.9 | R +36 to R +52 | 4,128 | 10,579 | 14,946 | R +0.23 | D +0.06 |
| Greene County | R +54.6 | R +43.1 | R +35 to R +52 | 4,167 | 10,481 | 14,884 | R +0.27 | D +0.17 |
| Ripley County | R +62.2 | R +51.3 | R +43 to R +60 | 3,534 | 10,965 | 14,696 | R +0.23 | D +0.25 |
| Wells County | R +58.9 | R +46.1 | R +38 to R +54 | 3,832 | 10,384 | 14,457 | R +0.23 | D +0.33 |
| Jefferson County | R +36.8 | R +30.2 | R +22 to R +39 | 4,956 | 9,253 | 14,469 | R +0.27 | D +0.05 |
| Adams County | R +53.6 | R +46.3 | R +38 to R +55 | 3,784 | 10,309 | 14,343 | R +0.23 | D +0.32 |
| Cass County | R +46.9 | R +33.0 | R +25 to R +41 | 4,656 | 9,244 | 14,117 | R +0.12 | D +0.13 |
| Wabash County | R +51.5 | R +41.4 | R +33 to R +50 | 4,033 | 9,734 | 13,977 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Miami County | R +55.6 | R +44.9 | R +37 to R +53 | 3,680 | 9,690 | 13,618 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Posey County | R +44.1 | R +31.5 | R +23 to R +40 | 4,383 | 8,420 | 13,002 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Washington County | R +55.8 | R +45.0 | R +37 to R +54 | 3,495 | 9,204 | 12,916 | R +0.27 | D +0.14 |
| Clinton County | R +48.8 | R +36.0 | R +28 to R +44 | 3,912 | 8,309 | 12,423 | R +0.20 | D +0.13 |
| Franklin County | R +65.3 | R +52.0 | R +44 to R +60 | 2,922 | 9,254 | 12,343 | R +0.22 | D +0.34 |
| Decatur County | R +59.6 | R +48.5 | R +40 to R +57 | 3,096 | 8,924 | 12,231 | R +0.23 | D +0.07 |
| Clay County | R +57.9 | R +46.2 | R +38 to R +55 | 3,219 | 8,740 | 12,154 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Jennings County | R +59.9 | R +50.5 | R +42 to R +59 | 2,894 | 8,807 | 11,906 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Daviess County | R +65.2 | R +55.0 | R +47 to R +63 | 2,581 | 8,882 | 11,630 | R +0.20 | D +0.28 |
| White County | R +46.0 | R +35.3 | R +27 to R +44 | 3,563 | 7,446 | 11,232 | R +0.25 | D +0.16 |
| LaGrange County | R +57.8 | R +51.6 | R +43 to R +60 | 2,542 | 7,961 | 10,677 | R +0.24 | D +0.30 |
| Spencer County | R +44.2 | R +32.4 | R +24 to R +41 | 3,525 | 6,902 | 10,627 | R +0.28 | D +0.17 |
| Starke County | R +52.8 | R +45.4 | R +37 to R +54 | 2,844 | 7,571 | 10,573 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Randolph County | R +54.6 | R +46.6 | R +38 to R +55 | 2,762 | 7,584 | 10,532 | R +0.25 | D +0.09 |
| Scott County | R +52.3 | R +44.5 | R +36 to R +53 | 2,862 | 7,461 | 10,485 | R +0.27 | D +0.35 |
| Owen County | R +51.5 | R +39.0 | R +31 to R +48 | 3,051 | 6,949 | 10,169 | R +0.26 | D +0.34 |
| Fayette County | R +57.1 | R +51.2 | R +43 to R +60 | 2,399 | 7,427 | 9,966 | R +0.25 | D +0.10 |
| Carroll County | R +53.0 | R +40.6 | R +32 to R +49 | 2,735 | 6,483 | 9,377 | R +0.24 | D +0.23 |
| Sullivan County | R +53.6 | R +44.6 | R +36 to R +53 | 2,423 | 6,324 | 8,889 | R +0.19 | D +0.06 |
| Brown County | R +33.2 | R +18.5 | R +10 to R +27 | 3,544 | 5,154 | 8,848 | R +0.30 | D +0.21 |
| Fulton County | R +52.0 | R +41.0 | R +33 to R +49 | 2,556 | 6,107 | 8,794 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Perry County | R +30.3 | R +24.5 | R +16 to R +33 | 3,267 | 5,383 | 8,800 | R +0.27 | D +0.11 |
| Orange County | R +53.0 | R +44.3 | R +36 to R +53 | 2,376 | 6,151 | 8,664 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Fountain County | R +61.1 | R +50.8 | R +42 to R +59 | 1,995 | 6,116 | 8,257 | R +0.23 | D +0.46 |
| Jay County | R +56.1 | R +48.6 | R +40 to R +57 | 2,033 | 5,875 | 8,044 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Tipton County | R +51.7 | R +39.0 | R +31 to R +47 | 2,403 | 5,477 | 8,016 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Rush County | R +55.3 | R +44.1 | R +36 to R +52 | 2,117 | 5,457 | 7,728 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Vermillion County | R +45.7 | R +37.6 | R +29 to R +46 | 2,241 | 4,949 | 7,332 | R +0.29 | D +0.06 |
| Parke County | R +58.0 | R +50.6 | R +42 to R +59 | 1,670 | 5,093 | 6,881 | R +0.22 | D +0.43 |
| Newton County | R +57.9 | R +45.6 | R +37 to R +54 | 1,799 | 4,819 | 6,726 | R +0.18 | D +0.28 |
| Pike County | R +55.6 | R +45.8 | R +37 to R +54 | 1,595 | 4,293 | 5,978 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Pulaski County | R +54.7 | R +45.9 | R +37 to R +54 | 1,535 | 4,138 | 5,775 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Martin County | R +61.9 | R +52.9 | R +44 to R +62 | 1,169 | 3,798 | 5,057 | R +0.24 | D +0.12 |
| Blackford County | R +51.3 | R +42.4 | R +34 to R +51 | 1,426 | 3,529 | 5,047 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Crawford County | R +49.6 | R +41.8 | R +33 to R +51 | 1,440 | 3,513 | 5,054 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Warren County | R +58.2 | R +45.9 | R +38 to R +54 | 1,177 | 3,173 | 4,422 | R +0.24 | D +0.09 |
| Switzerland County | R +58.3 | R +51.2 | R +42 to R +60 | 1,058 | 3,276 | 4,400 | R +0.24 | D +0.42 |
| Benton County | R +48.0 | R +35.7 | R +27 to R +44 | 1,272 | 2,684 | 4,029 | R +0.23 | D +0.22 |
| Union County | R +56.7 | R +48.4 | R +40 to R +57 | 873 | 2,513 | 3,435 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Ohio County | R +56.3 | R +42.9 | R +34 to R +51 | 886 | 2,218 | 3,146 | R +0.27 | D +0.17 |