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2028 forecast · Illinois · Democratic primary

Illinois Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 51% of runs
26.2%Harris's projected share
1,821,949Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Harris26.2%477,43751%15.1%
Buttigieg17.7%322,27012%8.6%
Ocasio-Cortez14.1%256,80012%9.1%
Newsom13.7%248,68912%9.3%
Ossoff10.4%190,38211%9.3%
Kelly3.2%58,669<1%4.7%
Shapiro2.6%47,3891%4.8%
Beshear0.6%10,601<1%2.9%
Pritzker0.1%2,369<1%7.4%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Illinois votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
ButtigiegHarrisOcasio-Cortez

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Illinois
Progressive37%
Working class and union18%
Institutional17%
Democratic leaning independents13%
Civil rights coalition8%
Moderate independents3%

Black 22.1%, Hispanic 8.9%, Asian and other 4.1%, under 30 13.1%, 65 and up 29.5%, college graduates 48.7%, women 54.6%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,674,133 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,821,949 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Cook County822,430Harris34.0%Newsom13.0%
DuPage County138,256Buttigieg29.4%Ocasio-Cortez18.1%
Will County104,486Harris24.5%Buttigieg17.5%
Lake County100,463Buttigieg25.8%Ocasio-Cortez18.6%
Kane County70,039Buttigieg22.9%Ocasio-Cortez18.0%
McHenry County43,998Buttigieg26.8%Ocasio-Cortez17.5%
St. Clair County43,144Harris46.0%Ossoff11.2%
Winnebago County36,315Harris26.8%Buttigieg16.9%
Madison County35,714Buttigieg22.1%Harris19.9%
Sangamon County28,851Harris22.6%Buttigieg20.9%
Champaign County28,754Ocasio-Cortez31.0%Buttigieg18.1%
McLean County25,539Buttigieg23.7%Ocasio-Cortez23.6%
Peoria County24,868Harris28.3%Buttigieg17.1%
Kendall County20,235Buttigieg20.3%Ocasio-Cortez18.5%
Rock Island County19,135Harris25.6%Buttigieg17.5%
Tazewell County15,976Buttigieg25.6%Ocasio-Cortez17.6%
Kankakee County13,418Harris31.7%Buttigieg13.7%
DeKalb County13,371Ocasio-Cortez25.3%Buttigieg20.6%
LaSalle County13,066Buttigieg22.0%Harris19.0%
Macon County12,737Harris33.4%Buttigieg14.8%
Williamson County7,523Buttigieg23.1%Harris20.3%
Vermilion County7,411Harris31.2%Buttigieg14.6%
Jackson County6,724Ocasio-Cortez21.2%Harris18.5%
Adams County6,651Buttigieg25.7%Harris17.2%
Whiteside County6,602Buttigieg23.2%Harris18.0%
Boone County6,436Buttigieg21.2%Harris17.8%
Grundy County6,247Buttigieg22.6%Ocasio-Cortez17.9%
Ogle County6,008Buttigieg25.0%Harris16.6%
Knox County5,977Harris23.4%Buttigieg19.3%
Henry County5,966Buttigieg25.2%Harris17.1%
Stephenson County5,446Harris25.7%Buttigieg18.6%
Macoupin County5,006Buttigieg23.9%Harris18.0%
Coles County5,004Buttigieg24.1%Ocasio-Cortez19.7%
Monroe County4,697Buttigieg31.6%Ocasio-Cortez15.2%
Woodford County4,545Buttigieg30.2%Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
Lee County4,071Harris23.0%Buttigieg18.7%
Clinton County3,982Buttigieg23.2%Harris19.2%
Fulton County3,875Buttigieg21.8%Harris20.5%
Bureau County3,763Buttigieg25.0%Harris17.4%
Jefferson County3,554Harris23.5%Buttigieg20.0%
Livingston County3,539Harris22.1%Buttigieg20.5%
Effingham County3,487Buttigieg27.3%Ocasio-Cortez16.0%
Morgan County3,444Buttigieg21.5%Harris20.2%
Franklin County3,431Buttigieg22.6%Harris18.4%
Marion County3,386Buttigieg21.1%Harris20.2%
Christian County3,203Buttigieg22.2%Harris20.3%
Randolph County3,173Harris31.2%Buttigieg15.6%
Jo Daviess County3,026Buttigieg28.2%Harris16.5%
McDonough County2,962Buttigieg23.8%Ocasio-Cortez21.6%
Montgomery County2,823Harris21.9%Buttigieg21.1%
Logan County2,803Harris21.5%Buttigieg21.0%
Iroquois County2,496Buttigieg22.8%Harris18.4%
Jersey County2,309Buttigieg25.3%Harris16.2%
Piatt County2,194Buttigieg28.1%Ocasio-Cortez15.3%
Saline County2,175Buttigieg22.2%Harris20.2%
Shelby County2,087Buttigieg24.3%Harris18.6%
Perry County1,980Harris29.7%Buttigieg15.8%
Mercer County1,918Buttigieg24.2%Harris17.6%
Carroll County1,846Harris23.7%Buttigieg19.8%
Crawford County1,815Buttigieg21.7%Harris21.0%
Hancock County1,804Buttigieg26.8%Harris17.2%
Warren County1,788Buttigieg22.0%Ocasio-Cortez19.9%
Bond County1,778Harris21.9%Buttigieg19.3%
Douglas County1,741Buttigieg23.5%Harris18.0%
Fayette County1,736Harris20.4%Buttigieg20.4%
Union County1,723Buttigieg24.4%Harris18.4%
Clark County1,621Buttigieg26.8%Harris16.3%
De Witt County1,602Buttigieg25.9%Harris16.8%
Edgar County1,527Buttigieg24.9%Harris18.7%
Richland County1,477Buttigieg24.5%Harris17.8%
Massac County1,456Harris27.9%Buttigieg17.4%
Washington County1,423Buttigieg26.1%Harris17.1%
Menard County1,367Buttigieg28.0%Ocasio-Cortez15.1%
Wayne County1,332Buttigieg23.9%Harris19.0%
Mason County1,322Buttigieg23.6%Harris19.3%
Marshall County1,321Buttigieg24.2%Harris18.5%
Ford County1,315Buttigieg23.0%Ocasio-Cortez17.4%
Pike County1,313Buttigieg23.3%Harris18.0%
Moultrie County1,302Buttigieg24.1%Harris18.5%
White County1,283Buttigieg24.1%Harris19.3%
Johnson County1,280Harris27.7%Buttigieg16.4%
Lawrence County1,243Harris26.0%Buttigieg17.4%
Cass County1,169Buttigieg20.9%Harris20.4%
Clay County1,120Buttigieg22.7%Harris19.8%
Greene County1,113Buttigieg24.8%Harris18.0%
Cumberland County1,022Buttigieg24.7%Harris17.6%
Wabash County1,019Buttigieg24.5%Harris18.0%
Jasper County936Buttigieg25.4%Harris17.1%
Schuyler County803Harris24.0%Buttigieg20.7%
Putnam County783Buttigieg24.6%Ocasio-Cortez17.2%
Alexander County762Harris63.7%Ossoff7.4%
Pulaski County753Harris61.8%Ossoff8.5%
Hamilton County732Buttigieg25.6%Harris17.6%
Henderson County732Buttigieg25.5%Harris18.4%
Brown County584Harris46.7%Ossoff11.3%
Stark County567Buttigieg24.1%Harris18.0%
Edwards County525Buttigieg23.2%Harris19.8%
Calhoun County507Buttigieg23.0%Harris19.2%
Gallatin County473Buttigieg22.9%Harris20.5%
Scott County466Buttigieg25.4%Harris16.8%
Pope County409Harris25.8%Buttigieg19.8%
Hardin County340Harris22.6%Buttigieg22.0%