2028 forecast · Illinois · President · 19 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Illinois.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +24.6 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +31.4 and D +17.8. Projected votes: 3,395,475 Democratic, 2,053,810 Republican, 86,477 other, 5,535,762 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +24.62028 margin
D +11.12024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +11.1 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +25.5 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.3 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.8 toward D | 5.5% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | No change | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +24.6 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 5,592,368 in 2024, 5,535,764 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Illinois| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +26.1 | >99% |
| Harris | D +26.0 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +25.7 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +25.4 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +25.4 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +25.3 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +25.3 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +25.3 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +25.2 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +25.2 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +24.7 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +24.7 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +24.7 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +24.6 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +24.6 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +24.6 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +24.6 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +24.6 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +24.5 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +24.5 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +24.4 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +24.3 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +24.2 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +24.0 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +23.9 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +23.6 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +23.5 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +23.3 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +21.7 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Illinois| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +24.8 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +24.7 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +24.6 | >99% |
| Vance | D +24.6 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +24.5 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +24.4 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +24.4 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +24.4 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +24.3 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +24.3 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +24.3 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +24.0 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +23.9 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
102 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook County | D +42.5 | D +63.6 | D +71 to D +56 | 1,620,068 | 360,997 | 2,008,310 | D +0.30 | R +0.08 |
| DuPage County | D +13.5 | D +27.2 | D +35 to D +19 | 277,614 | 158,836 | 444,102 | Even | Even |
| Will County | D +1.6 | D +15.9 | D +24 to D +8 | 189,603 | 137,471 | 332,152 | D +0.11 | Even |
| Lake County | D +21.1 | D +33.8 | D +42 to D +26 | 204,612 | 101,250 | 310,673 | D +0.08 | Even |
| Kane County | D +9.5 | D +22.6 | D +30 to D +15 | 136,015 | 85,854 | 225,404 | D +0.05 | Even |
| McHenry County | R +5.4 | D +4.8 | D +13 to R +3 | 85,244 | 77,484 | 165,516 | R +0.20 | D +0.11 |
| Madison County | R +13.5 | R +7.5 | D +0 to R +15 | 59,951 | 69,689 | 132,054 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Winnebago County | D +0.6 | D +6.3 | D +14 to R +2 | 62,418 | 55,044 | 119,441 | R +0.12 | Even |
| St. Clair County | D +8.0 | D +18.8 | D +27 to D +11 | 68,496 | 46,802 | 117,396 | D +0.11 | Even |
| Sangamon County | R +5.1 | D +1.6 | D +9 to R +6 | 48,735 | 47,241 | 97,782 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Champaign County | D +24.5 | D +34.5 | D +42 to D +27 | 61,274 | 29,869 | 92,787 | D +0.25 | Even |
| McLean County | D +5.0 | D +13.4 | D +21 to D +6 | 49,904 | 38,092 | 89,653 | Even | Even |
| Peoria County | D +4.7 | D +12.2 | D +20 to D +5 | 42,485 | 33,218 | 77,050 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Kendall County | D +1.6 | D +16.1 | D +24 to D +8 | 41,495 | 29,977 | 72,719 | D +0.11 | D +0.31 |
| Tazewell County | R +27.1 | R +21.4 | R +14 to R +29 | 25,903 | 40,015 | 67,154 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Rock Island County | D +9.8 | D +15.7 | D +24 to D +8 | 34,924 | 25,438 | 61,454 | R +0.17 | Even |
| LaSalle County | R +18.7 | R +12.9 | R +5 to R +21 | 22,049 | 28,558 | 51,390 | R +0.34 | Even |
| DeKalb County | D +2.0 | D +11.2 | D +19 to D +3 | 27,344 | 21,834 | 50,134 | Even | Even |
| Kankakee County | R +21.2 | R +15.0 | R +7 to R +23 | 19,570 | 26,502 | 46,916 | R +0.09 | Even |
| Macon County | R +19.2 | R +14.9 | R +7 to R +23 | 18,093 | 24,417 | 43,179 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Williamson County | R +39.3 | R +33.9 | R +26 to R +42 | 10,659 | 21,615 | 32,746 | R +0.34 | D +0.07 |
| Adams County | R +48.1 | R +44.2 | R +36 to R +52 | 8,544 | 22,087 | 31,115 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Vermilion County | R +36.2 | R +32.2 | R +24 to R +40 | 9,421 | 18,366 | 28,247 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Grundy County | R +30.0 | R +21.6 | R +14 to R +30 | 10,596 | 16,426 | 27,480 | R +0.22 | D +0.22 |
| Whiteside County | R +15.0 | R +9.1 | R +1 to R +17 | 11,391 | 13,660 | 25,545 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Ogle County | R +29.9 | R +24.4 | R +17 to R +32 | 9,437 | 15,529 | 25,408 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Boone County | R +14.7 | R +7.8 | Even to R +16 | 11,042 | 12,902 | 24,360 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Henry County | R +24.9 | R +18.9 | R +11 to R +27 | 9,665 | 14,174 | 24,299 | R +0.41 | Even |
| Jackson County | D +3.5 | D +11.4 | D +19 to D +4 | 12,619 | 10,028 | 23,046 | D +0.08 | Even |
| Macoupin County | R +40.0 | R +34.5 | R +26 to R +43 | 7,277 | 14,942 | 22,640 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Coles County | R +29.0 | R +23.7 | R +16 to R +32 | 8,211 | 13,298 | 21,899 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Knox County | R +9.6 | R +4.7 | D +3 to R +13 | 9,862 | 10,836 | 21,096 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Woodford County | R +42.7 | R +34.5 | R +27 to R +42 | 6,768 | 13,888 | 21,006 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Monroe County | R +36.9 | R +27.8 | R +20 to R +36 | 7,358 | 13,033 | 20,754 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Stephenson County | R +19.7 | R +15.6 | R +8 to R +24 | 8,267 | 11,333 | 19,941 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Clinton County | R +52.8 | R +45.4 | R +37 to R +53 | 5,150 | 13,706 | 19,209 | R +0.28 | D +0.11 |
| Effingham County | R +61.4 | R +55.4 | R +47 to R +63 | 4,179 | 14,553 | 19,046 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Franklin County | R +51.2 | R +47.9 | R +40 to R +56 | 4,407 | 12,508 | 17,150 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Jefferson County | R +48.4 | R +45.1 | R +37 to R +53 | 4,376 | 11,564 | 16,168 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Marion County | R +50.2 | R +46.9 | R +39 to R +55 | 4,216 | 11,668 | 16,117 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Livingston County | R +47.0 | R +42.8 | R +35 to R +51 | 4,533 | 11,306 | 16,106 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Fulton County | R +24.3 | R +19.9 | R +12 to R +28 | 6,161 | 9,227 | 15,699 | R +0.41 | Even |
| Bureau County | R +24.8 | R +21.0 | R +13 to R +29 | 5,988 | 9,173 | 15,454 | R +0.43 | Even |
| Lee County | R +22.6 | R +18.2 | R +10 to R +26 | 6,188 | 8,948 | 15,437 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Christian County | R +47.4 | R +43.3 | R +35 to R +52 | 4,243 | 10,719 | 15,201 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Morgan County | R +32.9 | R +28.1 | R +20 to R +36 | 5,080 | 9,058 | 14,356 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Randolph County | R +50.9 | R +47.7 | R +40 to R +56 | 3,586 | 10,133 | 13,950 | R +0.28 | D +0.08 |
| Montgomery County | R +44.8 | R +40.8 | R +33 to R +49 | 3,760 | 8,954 | 12,947 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Iroquois County | R +58.1 | R +55.3 | R +47 to R +64 | 2,809 | 9,758 | 12,760 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Logan County | R +42.4 | R +38.4 | R +30 to R +47 | 3,706 | 8,333 | 12,278 | R +0.29 | Even |
| McDonough County | R +19.2 | R +13.6 | R +6 to R +21 | 5,082 | 6,681 | 11,985 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Jo Daviess County | R +17.1 | R +15.0 | R +7 to R +23 | 4,902 | 6,630 | 11,725 | R +0.59 | Even |
| Jersey County | R +51.0 | R +45.0 | R +37 to R +53 | 3,129 | 8,243 | 11,565 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Shelby County | R +61.1 | R +57.0 | R +49 to R +65 | 2,400 | 8,755 | 11,312 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Saline County | R +49.7 | R +47.0 | R +39 to R +55 | 2,627 | 7,293 | 10,060 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Piatt County | R +31.2 | R +24.1 | R +16 to R +32 | 3,519 | 5,757 | 9,467 | R +0.41 | D +0.10 |
| Fayette County | R +65.6 | R +61.2 | R +53 to R +70 | 1,788 | 7,440 | 9,356 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Perry County | R +52.8 | R +47.7 | R +39 to R +56 | 2,304 | 6,516 | 8,960 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Crawford County | R +53.3 | R +48.9 | R +41 to R +57 | 2,233 | 6,504 | 8,887 | R +0.30 | D +0.09 |
| Hancock County | R +50.9 | R +47.8 | R +40 to R +56 | 2,185 | 6,191 | 8,525 | R +0.41 | Even |
| Douglas County | R +46.9 | R +43.0 | R +35 to R +51 | 2,353 | 5,904 | 8,396 | R +0.33 | D +0.12 |
| Bond County | R +45.8 | R +39.2 | R +31 to R +47 | 2,431 | 5,570 | 8,173 | R +0.20 | D +0.09 |
| Mercer County | R +27.7 | R +22.1 | R +14 to R +30 | 3,080 | 4,823 | 8,070 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Wayne County | R +71.7 | R +69.4 | R +61 to R +78 | 1,205 | 6,678 | 7,980 | R +0.26 | D +0.14 |
| Clark County | R +52.2 | R +48.3 | R +40 to R +56 | 2,027 | 5,821 | 7,982 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Union County | R +43.7 | R +40.3 | R +32 to R +49 | 2,297 | 5,401 | 7,805 | R +0.41 | Even |
| Carroll County | R +32.3 | R +29.5 | R +21 to R +38 | 2,627 | 4,825 | 7,599 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Edgar County | R +53.3 | R +50.5 | R +42 to R +59 | 1,827 | 5,552 | 7,502 | R +0.43 | Even |
| De Witt County | R +45.7 | R +40.8 | R +33 to R +49 | 2,181 | 5,190 | 7,516 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Richland County | R +54.2 | R +50.7 | R +43 to R +59 | 1,807 | 5,520 | 7,435 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Washington County | R +58.0 | R +53.9 | R +46 to R +62 | 1,681 | 5,611 | 7,404 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Pike County | R +64.8 | R +60.6 | R +52 to R +69 | 1,402 | 5,708 | 7,223 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Warren County | R +25.6 | R +20.3 | R +12 to R +28 | 2,831 | 4,274 | 7,240 | R +0.30 | D +0.05 |
| White County | R +60.1 | R +57.3 | R +49 to R +66 | 1,408 | 5,187 | 6,683 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Clay County | R +68.4 | R +65.8 | R +58 to R +74 | 1,100 | 5,345 | 6,545 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Moultrie County | R +49.8 | R +47.2 | R +39 to R +55 | 1,674 | 4,664 | 6,434 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Massac County | R +49.2 | R +46.0 | R +38 to R +54 | 1,685 | 4,555 | 6,306 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Ford County | R +48.8 | R +43.7 | R +36 to R +52 | 1,747 | 4,465 | 6,333 | R +0.34 | D +0.09 |
| Menard County | R +42.1 | R +35.2 | R +27 to R +43 | 1,974 | 4,122 | 6,195 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Johnson County | R +58.9 | R +55.0 | R +47 to R +63 | 1,368 | 4,717 | 6,161 | R +0.18 | D +0.14 |
| Mason County | R +43.1 | R +40.4 | R +32 to R +49 | 1,755 | 4,132 | 6,004 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Marshall County | R +36.6 | R +32.1 | R +24 to R +40 | 1,967 | 3,831 | 5,896 | R +0.46 | Even |
| Greene County | R +58.9 | R +54.1 | R +46 to R +62 | 1,292 | 4,342 | 5,733 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Cumberland County | R +62.8 | R +57.6 | R +50 to R +66 | 1,174 | 4,370 | 5,629 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Lawrence County | R +57.2 | R +53.3 | R +45 to R +61 | 1,293 | 4,240 | 5,625 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Jasper County | R +66.0 | R +60.3 | R +52 to R +69 | 1,034 | 4,178 | 5,278 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Wabash County | R +54.7 | R +51.7 | R +44 to R +60 | 1,220 | 3,837 | 5,137 | R +0.37 | D +0.05 |
| Cass County | R +44.2 | R +37.4 | R +30 to R +46 | 1,511 | 3,320 | 4,913 | R +0.22 | D +0.24 |
| Hamilton County | R +64.2 | R +61.0 | R +53 to R +69 | 785 | 3,242 | 4,083 | R +0.31 | Even |
| Schuyler County | R +47.8 | R +44.4 | R +36 to R +53 | 969 | 2,516 | 3,551 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Putnam County | R +23.3 | R +19.1 | R +11 to R +27 | 1,304 | 1,920 | 3,284 | R +0.44 | D +0.07 |
| Henderson County | R +39.6 | R +36.3 | R +28 to R +45 | 997 | 2,135 | 3,191 | R +0.50 | Even |
| Edwards County | R +71.9 | R +69.0 | R +61 to R +78 | 476 | 2,592 | 3,105 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Stark County | R +46.5 | R +40.6 | R +32 to R +49 | 785 | 1,857 | 2,693 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Calhoun County | R +57.2 | R +50.6 | R +42 to R +59 | 625 | 1,909 | 2,584 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Brown County | R +61.2 | R +51.5 | R +43 to R +60 | 597 | 1,868 | 2,514 | R +0.06 | D +0.37 |
| Scott County | R +61.9 | R +57.1 | R +49 to R +65 | 523 | 1,913 | 2,467 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Gallatin County | R +54.8 | R +52.4 | R +44 to R +61 | 547 | 1,754 | 2,338 | R +0.41 | Even |
| Pulaski County | R +34.6 | R +29.4 | R +21 to R +38 | 777 | 1,423 | 2,226 | D +0.05 | Even |
| Pope County | R +60.6 | R +58.3 | R +50 to R +67 | 415 | 1,576 | 2,011 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Alexander County | R +19.5 | R +13.1 | R +5 to R +22 | 851 | 1,108 | 1,981 | R +0.12 | Even |
| Hardin County | R +62.5 | R +60.2 | R +52 to R +69 | 359 | 1,446 | 1,826 | R +0.40 | Even |