2028 forecast · Idaho · Democratic primary

Idaho Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

Ocasio-CortezFavorite, wins 39% of runs

18.6%Ocasio-Cortez's projected share

137,987Projected primary votes

3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Buttigieg	22.8%	31,486	34%	11.2%
Ocasio-Cortez	18.6%	25,716	39%	15.1%
Newsom	15.4%	21,251	16%	11.0%
Harris	15.1%	20,820	1%	4.5%
Ossoff	7.7%	10,636	1%	5.6%
Kelly	4.8%	6,620	6%	8.5%
Shapiro	3.3%	4,523	3%	6.6%
Beshear	0.8%	1,132	1%	5.0%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Idaho votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

ButtigiegOcasio-CortezHarris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Idaho

Progressive42%

Institutional17%

Working class and union15%

Democratic leaning independents12%

Civil rights coalition7%

Moderate independents3%

Black 1.3%, Hispanic 5.3%, Asian and other 2.7%, under 30 11.6%, 65 and up 34%, college graduates 43%, women 54.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 108,649 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 137,987 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Ada County	48,951	Buttigieg	25.5%	Ocasio-Cortez	19.6%
Canyon County	14,612	Buttigieg	19.1%	Harris	18.4%
Kootenai County	12,936	Buttigieg	23.2%	Harris	16.8%
Bonneville County	8,168	Buttigieg	22.7%	Ocasio-Cortez	18.0%
Bannock County	6,561	Ocasio-Cortez	23.9%	Buttigieg	20.6%
Twin Falls County	5,195	Buttigieg	20.2%	Harris	18.1%
Bonner County	4,169	Buttigieg	22.9%	Harris	17.6%
Latah County	3,687	Ocasio-Cortez	30.4%	Buttigieg	21.8%
Nez Perce County	2,957	Buttigieg	23.2%	Harris	17.0%
Blaine County	2,850	Buttigieg	28.5%	Ocasio-Cortez	17.8%
Bingham County	2,589	Buttigieg	19.9%	Harris	17.8%
Madison County	2,145	Ocasio-Cortez	51.5%	Buttigieg	15.9%
Jefferson County	1,721	Buttigieg	21.7%	Ocasio-Cortez	18.6%
Elmore County	1,516	Harris	18.6%	Buttigieg	18.1%
Payette County	1,420	Harris	20.6%	Buttigieg	19.3%
Teton County	1,347	Buttigieg	26.8%	Ocasio-Cortez	24.6%
Valley County	1,233	Buttigieg	27.7%	Newsom	16.1%
Gem County	1,228	Buttigieg	20.6%	Harris	19.8%
Cassia County	1,127	Buttigieg	19.1%	Harris	18.4%
Idaho County	1,105	Buttigieg	21.5%	Harris	19.7%
Jerome County	1,084	Harris	20.3%	Buttigieg	17.2%
Minidoka County	994	Harris	20.3%	Buttigieg	17.4%
Boundary County	823	Buttigieg	21.5%	Harris	18.1%
Shoshone County	801	Harris	21.4%	Buttigieg	19.3%
Fremont County	772	Buttigieg	20.4%	Ocasio-Cortez	18.1%
Gooding County	749	Harris	20.5%	Buttigieg	18.3%
Franklin County	731	Buttigieg	21.4%	Harris	17.3%
Washington County	678	Buttigieg	20.0%	Harris	19.7%
Boise County	649	Buttigieg	24.1%	Harris	17.9%
Lemhi County	620	Buttigieg	22.7%	Harris	19.8%
Benewah County	613	Buttigieg	21.8%	Harris	20.0%
Owyhee County	572	Harris	21.1%	Buttigieg	17.0%
Clearwater County	517	Harris	21.9%	Buttigieg	20.9%
Power County	446	Harris	20.0%	Ocasio-Cortez	17.9%
Caribou County	371	Harris	20.4%	Buttigieg	20.1%
Custer County	353	Buttigieg	24.8%	Harris	19.4%
Adams County	342	Buttigieg	21.6%	Harris	20.9%
Bear Lake County	336	Buttigieg	22.0%	Harris	19.3%
Oneida County	255	Buttigieg	22.7%	Harris	18.6%
Lincoln County	254	Harris	22.5%	Buttigieg	16.5%
Lewis County	216	Harris	21.8%	Buttigieg	21.2%
Butte County	157	Harris	20.8%	Buttigieg	19.7%
Camas County	96	Buttigieg	22.6%	Ocasio-Cortez	16.9%
Clark County	41	Ocasio-Cortez	25.7%	Buttigieg	17.0%