2028 forecast · Idaho · President · 4 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry Idaho.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +21.6 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +14.7 and R +28.4. Projected votes: 375,572 Democratic, 582,080 Republican, 25,795 other, 983,447 in all.
<1%Democratic win chance
R +21.62028 margin
R +37.52024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +37.5 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +23.3 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.6 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.5 toward D | 5.4% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 1.0 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +21.6 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 904,812 in 2024, 983,448 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Idaho| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +19.8 | <1% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +20.2 | <1% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +20.3 | <1% |
| CooperHYP | R +20.5 | <1% |
| Cuban | R +21.0 | <1% |
| BrownHYP | R +21.1 | <1% |
| BeshearHYP | R +21.1 | <1% |
| WalzHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +21.3 | <1% |
| KellyHYP | R +21.3 | <1% |
| BookerHYP | R +21.3 | <1% |
| Harris | R +21.4 | <1% |
| Ossoff | R +21.5 | <1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +21.6 | <1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +21.6 | <1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +21.7 | <1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +21.7 | <1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +21.8 | <1% |
| PolisHYP | R +21.8 | <1% |
| Shapiro | R +22.0 | <1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +22.3 | <1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +22.3 | <1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +22.5 | <1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +22.5 | <1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +22.6 | <1% |
| MooreHYP | R +23.0 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +23.1 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +23.5 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +25.6 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Idaho| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +20.3 | <1% |
| CottonHYP | R +20.3 | <1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +20.4 | <1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +20.4 | <1% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +20.6 | <1% |
| KempHYP | R +20.7 | <1% |
| Rubio | R +20.8 | <1% |
| CruzHYP | R +20.8 | <1% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +20.8 | <1% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +21.0 | <1% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +21.0 | <1% |
| Vance | R +21.6 | <1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +21.6 | <1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
44 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ada County | R +10.6 | D +6.2 | D +14 to R +2 | 150,513 | 132,961 | 291,344 | R +0.21 | D +0.51 |
| Canyon County | R +47.8 | R +27.6 | R +20 to R +36 | 41,246 | 72,669 | 116,845 | R +0.13 | D +1.88 |
| Kootenai County | R +53.0 | R +36.3 | R +28 to R +44 | 32,766 | 70,055 | 105,160 | R +0.29 | D +1.44 |
| Bonneville County | R +47.0 | R +31.0 | R +23 to R +39 | 20,596 | 39,129 | 61,694 | R +0.19 | D +1.00 |
| Bannock County | R +25.9 | R +15.6 | R +8 to R +23 | 17,304 | 23,685 | 42,328 | R +0.20 | D +0.39 |
| Twin Falls County | R +50.2 | R +35.5 | R +28 to R +43 | 12,479 | 26,192 | 39,722 | R +0.23 | D +0.94 |
| Bonner County | R +47.2 | R +34.9 | R +27 to R +43 | 10,253 | 21,258 | 32,234 | R +0.42 | D +1.70 |
| Latah County | R +8.3 | D +2.3 | D +10 to R +6 | 11,217 | 10,723 | 22,684 | R +0.08 | D +0.23 |
| Bingham County | R +61.3 | R +47.9 | R +40 to R +56 | 5,566 | 15,782 | 21,955 | R +0.15 | D +0.90 |
| Madison County | R +66.8 | R +50.2 | R +43 to R +58 | 4,994 | 15,062 | 20,799 | Even | D +0.26 |
| Nez Perce County | R +39.6 | R +29.1 | R +21 to R +37 | 7,021 | 12,785 | 20,285 | R +0.37 | D +0.28 |
| Jefferson County | R +75.4 | R +55.0 | R +47 to R +63 | 3,919 | 13,511 | 17,924 | R +0.11 | D +1.99 |
| Blaine County | D +32.6 | D +51.7 | D +60 to D +44 | 9,631 | 3,063 | 13,032 | R +0.24 | R +0.07 |
| Payette County | R +64.2 | R +47.5 | R +39 to R +56 | 3,216 | 9,038 | 12,510 | R +0.23 | D +1.38 |
| Gem County | R +67.3 | R +50.3 | R +42 to R +59 | 2,753 | 8,321 | 11,302 | R +0.25 | D +1.80 |
| Elmore County | R +49.8 | R +38.5 | R +31 to R +46 | 3,324 | 7,477 | 11,076 | R +0.10 | D +0.26 |
| Idaho County | R +69.6 | R +57.9 | R +50 to R +66 | 2,083 | 7,807 | 10,119 | R +0.31 | D +1.37 |
| Cassia County | R +70.8 | R +54.4 | R +47 to R +62 | 2,223 | 7,522 | 9,993 | R +0.07 | D +0.83 |
| Jerome County | R +55.1 | R +35.5 | R +27 to R +44 | 2,635 | 5,538 | 8,369 | R +0.08 | D +0.88 |
| Minidoka County | R +64.7 | R +47.9 | R +40 to R +56 | 2,120 | 6,018 | 8,321 | R +0.08 | D +0.85 |
| Franklin County | R +79.9 | R +62.2 | R +54 to R +70 | 1,462 | 6,283 | 7,962 | R +0.13 | D +1.84 |
| Boundary County | R +67.0 | R +53.7 | R +46 to R +62 | 1,774 | 5,887 | 7,838 | R +0.23 | D +2.18 |
| Valley County | R +19.0 | R +4.2 | D +4 to R +12 | 3,520 | 3,830 | 7,511 | R +0.56 | D +0.69 |
| Teton County | D +7.1 | D +26.2 | D +34 to D +18 | 4,510 | 2,640 | 7,373 | R +0.20 | D +0.31 |
| Fremont County | R +71.1 | R +55.4 | R +47 to R +64 | 1,540 | 5,372 | 7,112 | R +0.18 | D +0.94 |
| Shoshone County | R +50.7 | R +42.4 | R +34 to R +51 | 1,780 | 4,397 | 6,326 | R +0.40 | D +0.97 |
| Gooding County | R +61.9 | R +47.3 | R +39 to R +56 | 1,550 | 4,337 | 6,024 | R +0.15 | D +0.65 |
| Washington County | R +62.9 | R +49.8 | R +42 to R +58 | 1,418 | 4,229 | 5,765 | R +0.29 | D +1.44 |
| Benewah County | R +62.8 | R +52.9 | R +45 to R +61 | 1,250 | 4,056 | 5,421 | R +0.30 | D +1.48 |
| Owyhee County | R +68.9 | R +52.4 | R +44 to R +61 | 1,195 | 3,832 | 5,124 | R +0.15 | D +0.96 |
| Boise County | R +55.6 | R +37.1 | R +29 to R +45 | 1,580 | 3,441 | 5,140 | R +0.37 | D +1.54 |
| Lemhi County | R +56.3 | R +46.5 | R +39 to R +55 | 1,292 | 3,537 | 4,941 | R +0.42 | D +1.00 |
| Clearwater County | R +64.2 | R +53.5 | R +45 to R +62 | 998 | 3,296 | 4,381 | R +0.36 | D +0.85 |
| Caribou County | R +73.4 | R +58.6 | R +50 to R +67 | 706 | 2,704 | 3,507 | R +0.21 | D +0.54 |
| Bear Lake County | R +78.7 | R +66.2 | R +58 to R +74 | 566 | 2,782 | 3,422 | R +0.21 | D +1.04 |
| Power County | R +46.4 | R +33.8 | R +26 to R +42 | 991 | 2,002 | 3,079 | R +0.13 | D +0.47 |
| Adams County | R +55.9 | R +44.5 | R +36 to R +53 | 775 | 2,021 | 2,861 | R +0.42 | D +1.86 |
| Custer County | R +54.6 | R +40.9 | R +33 to R +49 | 759 | 1,811 | 2,629 | R +0.49 | D +1.25 |
| Oneida County | R +78.7 | R +64.6 | R +57 to R +73 | 455 | 2,115 | 2,650 | R +0.19 | D +1.86 |
| Lincoln County | R +57.8 | R +44.3 | R +36 to R +53 | 549 | 1,423 | 2,028 | R +0.09 | D +1.04 |
| Lewis County | R +66.3 | R +55.5 | R +48 to R +64 | 400 | 1,398 | 1,832 | R +0.31 | D +0.93 |
| Butte County | R +74.5 | R +61.1 | R +53 to R +70 | 299 | 1,242 | 1,580 | R +0.20 | D +1.33 |
| Camas County | R +56.3 | R +38.0 | R +30 to R +46 | 253 | 565 | 847 | R +0.17 | D +2.43 |
| Clark County | R +69.7 | R +56.1 | R +48 to R +64 | 73 | 261 | 338 | D +0.06 | D +0.09 |