2028 forecast · Iowa · President · 6 electoral votes
The Republican is likely to carry Iowa.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +4.0 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +1.3 and R +9.3. Projected votes: 797,764 Democratic, 863,891 Republican, 26,160 other, 1,687,815 in all.
17%Democratic win chance
R +4.02028 margin
R +13.42024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +13.4 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +3.5 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.6 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.6 toward D | 5.6% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +4.0 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 1,656,849 in 2024, 1,687,815 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Iowa| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Rob SandHYP | D +1.9 | 68% |
| Buttigieg | R +2.3 | 29% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +3.0 | 24% |
| CooperHYP | R +3.0 | 23% |
| BrownHYP | R +3.4 | 20% |
| Cuban | R +3.5 | 20% |
| BeshearHYP | R +3.5 | 20% |
| WalzHYP | R +3.5 | 20% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +3.6 | 19% |
| Harris | R +3.6 | 19% |
| BookerHYP | R +3.7 | 19% |
| KellyHYP | R +3.9 | 18% |
| Generic Democrat | R +4.0 | 17% |
| KhannaHYP | R +4.0 | 16% |
| Ossoff | R +4.1 | 16% |
| MurphyHYP | R +4.1 | 16% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +4.1 | 16% |
| PolisHYP | R +4.2 | 15% |
| GallegoHYP | R +4.3 | 15% |
| Shapiro | R +4.4 | 14% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +4.6 | 13% |
| WarnockHYP | R +4.7 | 13% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +4.7 | 13% |
| CrockettHYP | R +4.9 | 12% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +5.0 | 11% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +5.3 | 10% |
| MooreHYP | R +5.5 | 9% |
| Newsom | R +6.1 | 7% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +7.9 | 3% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Iowa| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +2.5 | 27% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +2.6 | 26% |
| CottonHYP | R +2.7 | 26% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +2.8 | 25% |
| Rubio | R +2.9 | 24% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +2.9 | 24% |
| CruzHYP | R +3.0 | 23% |
| KempHYP | R +3.1 | 23% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +3.2 | 22% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +3.3 | 21% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +3.5 | 20% |
| Vance | R +4.0 | 17% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +4.1 | 16% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
99 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polk County | D +11.0 | D +23.4 | D +30 to D +17 | 163,049 | 101,158 | 268,327 | R +0.05 | D +0.07 |
| Linn County | D +10.1 | D +19.5 | D +26 to D +13 | 72,566 | 48,900 | 123,537 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Johnson County | D +38.6 | D +49.4 | D +56 to D +43 | 69,530 | 23,520 | 94,500 | D +0.12 | R +0.08 |
| Scott County | R +4.0 | D +6.5 | D +13 to Even | 47,199 | 41,470 | 90,133 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Dallas County | R +4.8 | D +10.4 | D +17 to D +4 | 39,700 | 32,217 | 73,087 | R +0.10 | D +0.72 |
| Black Hawk County | D +1.2 | D +7.8 | D +14 to D +1 | 33,999 | 29,105 | 64,052 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Story County | D +10.5 | D +20.5 | D +27 to D +14 | 32,327 | 21,346 | 54,691 | D +0.06 | Even |
| Dubuque County | R +8.7 | R +1.7 | D +5 to R +8 | 25,644 | 26,555 | 52,967 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Pottawattamie County | R +20.2 | R +12.4 | R +6 to R +19 | 18,943 | 24,320 | 43,943 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Woodbury County | R +23.3 | R +14.6 | R +8 to R +21 | 18,002 | 24,171 | 42,811 | R +0.13 | D +0.09 |
| Warren County | R +21.0 | R +9.7 | R +3 to R +16 | 15,858 | 19,269 | 35,707 | R +0.29 | D +0.64 |
| Clinton County | R +19.2 | R +13.0 | R +6 to R +20 | 10,000 | 12,989 | 23,386 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Cerro Gordo County | R +11.8 | R +6.6 | D +0 to R +13 | 10,241 | 11,680 | 22,284 | R +0.45 | Even |
| Jasper County | R +28.0 | R +20.8 | R +14 to R +28 | 7,849 | 11,960 | 20,136 | R +0.37 | D +0.09 |
| Marion County | R +38.3 | R +30.8 | R +24 to R +38 | 6,833 | 12,923 | 20,075 | R +0.32 | D +0.26 |
| Sioux County | R +71.9 | R +61.1 | R +55 to R +68 | 3,793 | 15,721 | 19,773 | R +0.11 | D +0.26 |
| Muscatine County | R +15.2 | R +6.9 | R +0 to R +14 | 8,698 | 9,992 | 19,030 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Des Moines County | R +15.3 | R +10.5 | R +4 to R +17 | 8,101 | 9,996 | 18,390 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Marshall County | R +15.8 | R +7.7 | R +1 to R +14 | 7,630 | 8,900 | 16,808 | R +0.20 | D +0.10 |
| Webster County | R +31.6 | R +27.5 | R +21 to R +34 | 5,925 | 10,427 | 16,589 | R +0.33 | D +0.08 |
| Lee County | R +28.4 | R +23.1 | R +16 to R +30 | 5,808 | 9,291 | 15,412 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Boone County | R +21.9 | R +12.7 | R +6 to R +19 | 6,588 | 8,507 | 15,368 | R +0.40 | D +0.06 |
| Bremer County | R +22.5 | R +15.5 | R +9 to R +22 | 6,219 | 8,505 | 14,948 | R +0.34 | D +0.12 |
| Benton County | R +33.7 | R +24.1 | R +17 to R +31 | 5,460 | 8,928 | 14,603 | R +0.38 | D +0.19 |
| Wapello County | R +31.9 | R +26.4 | R +20 to R +33 | 5,145 | 8,831 | 14,185 | R +0.27 | D +0.13 |
| Plymouth County | R +54.9 | R +45.7 | R +39 to R +53 | 3,690 | 9,914 | 13,784 | R +0.29 | D +0.06 |
| Winneshiek County | R +9.4 | R +5.9 | D +1 to R +13 | 5,510 | 6,200 | 11,901 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Washington County | R +24.7 | R +16.6 | R +10 to R +23 | 4,731 | 6,617 | 11,514 | R +0.39 | D +0.08 |
| Dickinson County | R +40.4 | R +32.4 | R +26 to R +39 | 3,697 | 7,242 | 11,076 | R +0.48 | D +0.35 |
| Jones County | R +26.7 | R +19.8 | R +13 to R +27 | 4,377 | 6,535 | 11,102 | R +0.41 | D +0.29 |
| Carroll County | R +42.5 | R +37.3 | R +31 to R +44 | 3,354 | 7,349 | 10,859 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Mahaska County | R +52.2 | R +46.5 | R +40 to R +53 | 2,860 | 7,828 | 10,834 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Buchanan County | R +28.6 | R +21.4 | R +15 to R +28 | 4,172 | 6,443 | 10,789 | R +0.39 | D +0.15 |
| Jackson County | R +33.0 | R +27.2 | R +20 to R +34 | 3,770 | 6,592 | 10,514 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Cedar County | R +22.1 | R +14.8 | R +8 to R +22 | 4,384 | 5,912 | 10,464 | R +0.42 | Even |
| Madison County | R +39.1 | R +27.6 | R +21 to R +34 | 3,695 | 6,514 | 10,360 | R +0.33 | D +0.45 |
| Delaware County | R +40.2 | R +34.0 | R +27 to R +41 | 3,286 | 6,667 | 10,113 | R +0.40 | D +0.19 |
| Poweshiek County | R +17.2 | R +13.7 | R +7 to R +20 | 4,241 | 5,583 | 9,979 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Fayette County | R +31.0 | R +26.8 | R +20 to R +34 | 3,424 | 5,938 | 9,522 | R +0.43 | Even |
| Iowa County | R +28.2 | R +21.1 | R +14 to R +28 | 3,685 | 5,653 | 9,495 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Henry County | R +36.5 | R +31.6 | R +25 to R +38 | 3,075 | 5,916 | 9,140 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Clayton County | R +34.9 | R +31.9 | R +25 to R +39 | 3,057 | 5,924 | 9,107 | R +0.49 | Even |
| Tama County | R +27.3 | R +21.5 | R +15 to R +28 | 3,234 | 5,002 | 8,379 | R +0.31 | Even |
| Clay County | R +43.7 | R +36.2 | R +30 to R +43 | 2,614 | 5,580 | 8,308 | R +0.41 | D +0.05 |
| Mills County | R +39.6 | R +28.4 | R +22 to R +35 | 2,931 | 5,253 | 8,303 | R +0.37 | D +0.26 |
| Hardin County | R +38.8 | R +32.6 | R +26 to R +39 | 2,682 | 5,278 | 8,066 | R +0.43 | D +0.06 |
| Kossuth County | R +44.7 | R +39.6 | R +33 to R +46 | 2,381 | 5,501 | 7,991 | R +0.41 | D +0.05 |
| Harrison County | R +42.5 | R +33.7 | R +27 to R +41 | 2,572 | 5,188 | 7,888 | R +0.39 | D +0.10 |
| Butler County | R +45.9 | R +39.6 | R +33 to R +46 | 2,314 | 5,345 | 7,767 | R +0.41 | Even |
| Jefferson County | R +6.9 | R +3.8 | D +3 to R +10 | 3,657 | 3,945 | 7,761 | R +0.40 | D +0.14 |
| O'Brien County | R +61.5 | R +53.8 | R +47 to R +61 | 1,691 | 5,638 | 7,418 | R +0.28 | D +0.12 |
| Hamilton County | R +33.7 | R +26.5 | R +20 to R +33 | 2,656 | 4,575 | 7,332 | R +0.38 | D +0.11 |
| Buena Vista County | R +33.7 | R +25.2 | R +19 to R +32 | 2,696 | 4,514 | 7,314 | Even | D +0.17 |
| Floyd County | R +26.1 | R +24.1 | R +17 to R +31 | 2,709 | 4,425 | 7,239 | R +0.46 | Even |
| Lyon County | R +70.4 | R +61.9 | R +55 to R +69 | 1,357 | 5,762 | 7,197 | R +0.22 | D +0.55 |
| Allamakee County | R +34.8 | R +29.6 | R +23 to R +36 | 2,479 | 4,558 | 7,140 | R +0.42 | D +0.13 |
| Grundy County | R +42.5 | R +32.4 | R +26 to R +39 | 2,351 | 4,609 | 7,079 | R +0.38 | D +0.07 |
| Page County | R +42.9 | R +37.7 | R +31 to R +45 | 2,147 | 4,745 | 6,983 | R +0.45 | Even |
| Cass County | R +41.4 | R +34.8 | R +28 to R +42 | 2,242 | 4,641 | 6,992 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Guthrie County | R +38.5 | R +30.3 | R +24 to R +37 | 2,219 | 4,149 | 6,469 | R +0.41 | D +0.22 |
| Crawford County | R +43.9 | R +35.9 | R +29 to R +43 | 2,011 | 4,262 | 6,344 | R +0.15 | D +0.14 |
| Shelby County | R +43.5 | R +37.6 | R +31 to R +44 | 1,945 | 4,288 | 6,319 | R +0.41 | D +0.07 |
| Appanoose County | R +47.2 | R +42.3 | R +36 to R +49 | 1,784 | 4,400 | 6,267 | R +0.41 | Even |
| Chickasaw County | R +37.6 | R +32.7 | R +26 to R +40 | 1,969 | 3,886 | 5,938 | R +0.43 | D +0.09 |
| Cherokee County | R +46.4 | R +40.1 | R +33 to R +47 | 1,718 | 4,020 | 5,820 | R +0.42 | Even |
| Union County | R +36.7 | R +31.5 | R +25 to R +38 | 1,964 | 3,774 | 5,824 | R +0.39 | D +0.06 |
| Hancock County | R +48.0 | R +43.6 | R +37 to R +50 | 1,595 | 4,058 | 5,732 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Mitchell County | R +31.6 | R +26.6 | R +20 to R +33 | 2,061 | 3,556 | 5,702 | R +0.44 | D +0.11 |
| Wright County | R +37.0 | R +32.4 | R +26 to R +39 | 1,816 | 3,555 | 5,455 | R +0.35 | D +0.19 |
| Winnebago County | R +31.1 | R +28.4 | R +22 to R +35 | 1,921 | 3,443 | 5,452 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Sac County | R +52.2 | R +46.6 | R +40 to R +53 | 1,376 | 3,779 | 5,219 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Keokuk County | R +52.1 | R +46.5 | R +40 to R +54 | 1,316 | 3,608 | 4,986 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Humboldt County | R +50.6 | R +43.8 | R +37 to R +51 | 1,364 | 3,487 | 4,915 | R +0.36 | D +0.05 |
| Palo Alto County | R +45.5 | R +41.7 | R +35 to R +49 | 1,413 | 3,438 | 4,917 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Calhoun County | R +47.3 | R +42.4 | R +36 to R +49 | 1,384 | 3,425 | 4,874 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Louisa County | R +41.5 | R +34.9 | R +28 to R +42 | 1,565 | 3,244 | 4,883 | R +0.28 | D +0.08 |
| Montgomery County | R +39.6 | R +35.0 | R +28 to R +42 | 1,547 | 3,216 | 4,833 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Greene County | R +33.4 | R +29.7 | R +23 to R +37 | 1,647 | 3,040 | 4,752 | R +0.46 | Even |
| Howard County | R +32.2 | R +28.1 | R +21 to R +35 | 1,686 | 3,001 | 4,752 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Franklin County | R +42.2 | R +35.7 | R +29 to R +43 | 1,490 | 3,144 | 4,700 | R +0.35 | D +0.11 |
| Emmet County | R +44.5 | R +40.9 | R +34 to R +48 | 1,353 | 3,229 | 4,639 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Lucas County | R +48.8 | R +43.5 | R +37 to R +51 | 1,288 | 3,274 | 4,631 | R +0.39 | D +0.33 |
| Monona County | R +45.9 | R +40.3 | R +33 to R +47 | 1,306 | 3,071 | 4,431 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Clarke County | R +42.6 | R +38.5 | R +32 to R +45 | 1,325 | 2,981 | 4,365 | R +0.29 | D +0.06 |
| Worth County | R +28.6 | R +23.6 | R +17 to R +31 | 1,568 | 2,538 | 4,168 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Monroe County | R +51.2 | R +44.8 | R +38 to R +52 | 1,104 | 2,899 | 4,048 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Adair County | R +45.7 | R +40.6 | R +34 to R +47 | 1,160 | 2,746 | 3,967 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Davis County | R +55.0 | R +50.6 | R +44 to R +58 | 964 | 2,941 | 3,955 | R +0.32 | D +0.20 |
| Decatur County | R +47.8 | R +45.5 | R +39 to R +52 | 1,011 | 2,701 | 3,774 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Fremont County | R +45.2 | R +39.5 | R +33 to R +46 | 1,094 | 2,520 | 3,668 | R +0.41 | Even |
| Van Buren County | R +56.3 | R +51.9 | R +45 to R +59 | 835 | 2,635 | 3,526 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Ida County | R +54.1 | R +48.4 | R +42 to R +55 | 890 | 2,564 | 3,500 | R +0.35 | D +0.05 |
| Pocahontas County | R +54.8 | R +50.4 | R +44 to R +57 | 827 | 2,509 | 3,386 | R +0.36 | D +0.09 |
| Wayne County | R +58.1 | R +54.1 | R +47 to R +61 | 714 | 2,401 | 3,164 | R +0.36 | D +0.63 |
| Audubon County | R +39.1 | R +34.3 | R +27 to R +41 | 997 | 2,036 | 3,084 | R +0.47 | Even |
| Osceola County | R +65.1 | R +59.3 | R +52 to R +66 | 616 | 2,415 | 3,071 | R +0.26 | D +0.08 |
| Taylor County | R +56.3 | R +51.3 | R +44 to R +58 | 719 | 2,234 | 2,988 | R +0.34 | D +0.07 |
| Ringgold County | R +51.9 | R +46.3 | R +40 to R +53 | 702 | 1,915 | 2,650 | R +0.37 | D +0.08 |
| Adams County | R +45.0 | R +38.2 | R +32 to R +45 | 622 | 1,391 | 2,049 | R +0.42 | Even |