2026 midterms Results are inFinal forecastSenate D 81%House D 91%Governors D 91%How the forecast did
Search
The Weighting Room
FINAL · RESULTS VS FORECAST
TX GovHinojosa D +7.0forecast R +0.2SC SenAndrews D +4.5forecast D +1.1FL GovDonalds R +1.3forecast R +1.6NE SenRicketts R +6.5forecast I +2.0NE GovPillen R +8.2forecast R +3.6TX SenTalarico D +9.7forecast D +3.7FL SenMoody R +2.9forecast R +3.7IA SenTurek D +4.2forecast D +3.7KS GovHolscher leads D +0.5forecast D +3.8GA GovBottoms D +8.6forecast D +3.9KS SenHamilton D +5.0forecast D +5.0AK SenSullivan leads R +0.9forecast D +5.1OH GovActon D +7.2forecast D +5.7ME SenJackson D +8.1forecast D +5.7NV GovFord D +7.2forecast D +6.1WI GovCrowley D +8.4forecast D +6.5OH SenBrown D +4.2forecast D +6.7MI SenEl-Sayed D +6.6forecast D +8.8

2028 forecast · Iowa · Democratic primary

Iowa Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

ButtigiegFavorite, wins 65% of runs
28.2%Buttigieg's projected share
176,420Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Buttigieg28.2%49,75365%17.7%
Ocasio-Cortez16.2%28,58522%13.1%
Harris15.0%26,4841%4.8%
Newsom12.2%21,5246%9.0%
Ossoff7.4%13,083<1%4.8%
Kelly4.5%7,9672%6.5%
Shapiro3.3%5,8652%5.7%
Beshear1.1%1,9721%4.4%
Whitmer0.7%1,278<1%1.1%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Iowa votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
ButtigiegOcasio-Cortez

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Iowa
Progressive42%
Working class and union18%
Institutional16%
Democratic leaning independents10%
Civil rights coalition7%
Moderate independents3%

Black 5.9%, Hispanic 3.2%, Asian and other 2.2%, under 30 12.7%, 65 and up 32.4%, college graduates 41.2%, women 54.7%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 176,352 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 176,420 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Polk County31,891Buttigieg27.9%Ocasio-Cortez17.6%
Linn County14,627Buttigieg28.3%Harris15.9%
Johnson County11,449Buttigieg28.2%Ocasio-Cortez26.8%
Scott County10,511Buttigieg27.4%Harris17.2%
Black Hawk County7,471Buttigieg22.9%Harris19.6%
Dallas County7,148Buttigieg35.9%Ocasio-Cortez18.9%
Story County5,838Ocasio-Cortez34.1%Buttigieg27.0%
Dubuque County5,673Buttigieg31.1%Ocasio-Cortez15.4%
Woodbury County4,534Buttigieg23.8%Harris18.5%
Pottawattamie County4,497Buttigieg27.6%Harris16.2%
Warren County3,298Buttigieg31.4%Ocasio-Cortez16.6%
Clinton County2,440Buttigieg26.4%Harris18.4%
Cerro Gordo County2,409Buttigieg27.9%Harris17.2%
Muscatine County2,116Buttigieg25.4%Harris17.6%
Des Moines County2,009Buttigieg25.5%Harris19.5%
Jasper County1,930Buttigieg26.2%Harris17.8%
Marshall County1,861Buttigieg24.8%Harris17.7%
Marion County1,763Buttigieg32.8%Ocasio-Cortez15.2%
Webster County1,594Buttigieg25.6%Harris17.7%
Lee County1,559Buttigieg27.3%Harris18.1%
Boone County1,523Buttigieg30.8%Harris14.3%
Bremer County1,456Buttigieg33.2%Ocasio-Cortez16.3%
Wapello County1,418Buttigieg24.0%Harris19.6%
Benton County1,338Buttigieg30.1%Harris15.0%
Sioux County1,321Buttigieg30.4%Ocasio-Cortez18.8%
Winneshiek County1,251Buttigieg31.8%Ocasio-Cortez15.9%
Washington County1,134Buttigieg29.8%Harris15.1%
Plymouth County1,126Buttigieg26.4%Harris18.0%
Jones County1,071Buttigieg25.4%Harris17.7%
Cedar County1,042Buttigieg29.6%Harris15.5%
Buchanan County1,013Buttigieg28.8%Harris15.8%
Poweshiek County1,005Buttigieg29.9%Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
Jackson County998Buttigieg26.9%Harris18.2%
Dickinson County988Buttigieg34.6%Harris13.8%
Carroll County966Buttigieg29.6%Harris15.8%
Iowa County918Buttigieg29.7%Harris15.5%
Jefferson County910Buttigieg35.8%Ocasio-Cortez12.7%
Fayette County909Buttigieg28.4%Harris16.6%
Madison County897Buttigieg30.5%Harris14.4%
Henry County889Buttigieg26.3%Harris16.5%
Mahaska County886Buttigieg29.4%Harris15.4%
Delaware County882Buttigieg29.6%Harris15.8%
Clayton County834Buttigieg25.6%Harris19.2%
Tama County833Buttigieg26.5%Harris17.2%
Buena Vista County772Buttigieg23.1%Harris18.6%
Hardin County750Buttigieg28.8%Harris16.8%
Mills County742Buttigieg32.9%Harris13.5%
Clay County733Buttigieg32.5%Harris14.2%
Floyd County726Buttigieg26.4%Harris18.4%
Kossuth County712Buttigieg28.8%Harris16.9%
Hamilton County707Buttigieg27.9%Harris16.8%
Harrison County683Buttigieg29.2%Harris15.8%
Allamakee County677Buttigieg27.5%Harris17.7%
Butler County669Buttigieg29.0%Harris16.6%
Page County632Buttigieg27.2%Harris18.8%
Cass County629Buttigieg28.7%Harris17.2%
Grundy County619Buttigieg31.8%Harris14.2%
Crawford County599Buttigieg23.6%Harris18.7%
Guthrie County582Buttigieg30.0%Harris15.8%
O'Brien County566Buttigieg27.9%Harris17.2%
Shelby County559Buttigieg30.1%Harris15.9%
Chickasaw County554Buttigieg28.9%Harris16.5%
Winnebago County545Buttigieg26.9%Harris17.1%
Union County541Buttigieg28.9%Harris15.8%
Appanoose County539Buttigieg28.2%Harris17.5%
Mitchell County536Buttigieg30.1%Harris15.6%
Wright County523Buttigieg29.1%Harris15.5%
Cherokee County522Buttigieg28.3%Harris18.1%
Hancock County490Buttigieg27.0%Harris16.5%
Lyon County470Buttigieg27.8%Harris16.4%
Louisa County460Buttigieg24.3%Harris19.2%
Montgomery County446Buttigieg27.8%Harris18.0%
Greene County443Buttigieg29.0%Harris16.5%
Howard County440Buttigieg28.1%Harris16.8%
Sac County436Buttigieg29.6%Harris16.4%
Franklin County435Buttigieg26.5%Harris18.1%
Calhoun County432Buttigieg26.6%Harris17.5%
Palo Alto County423Buttigieg25.9%Harris18.6%
Humboldt County409Buttigieg27.3%Harris17.2%
Emmet County407Buttigieg25.7%Harris18.4%
Keokuk County405Buttigieg26.9%Harris17.8%
Worth County402Buttigieg27.3%Harris17.5%
Clarke County386Buttigieg25.5%Harris17.6%
Monona County384Buttigieg27.9%Harris16.7%
Lucas County376Buttigieg26.2%Harris18.5%
Adair County342Buttigieg27.7%Harris17.5%
Monroe County335Buttigieg28.9%Harris16.4%
Fremont County320Buttigieg28.7%Harris17.1%
Decatur County309Buttigieg28.3%Ocasio-Cortez15.9%
Davis County303Buttigieg27.2%Harris17.2%
Ida County287Buttigieg28.9%Harris16.7%
Audubon County285Buttigieg28.8%Harris17.3%
Pocahontas County280Buttigieg27.0%Harris18.3%
Van Buren County276Buttigieg28.6%Harris17.3%
Taylor County236Buttigieg26.5%Harris18.3%
Wayne County232Buttigieg27.8%Harris17.7%
Osceola County231Buttigieg25.7%Harris18.9%
Ringgold County215Buttigieg31.1%Harris15.1%
Adams County182Buttigieg31.8%Harris15.2%