2028 forecast · Hawaii · President · 4 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Hawaii.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +41.7 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +48.9 and D +34.4. Projected votes: 349,160 Democratic, 143,783 Republican, 9,765 other, 502,708 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +41.72028 margin
D +23.62024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +23.6 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +37.5 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.2 toward D | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 1.3 toward D | 4.7% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | No change | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +41.7 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 516,701 in 2024, 502,710 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Hawaii| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +44.3 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +42.7 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +42.6 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +42.4 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +42.2 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +42.1 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +42.0 | >99% |
| Harris | D +41.9 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +41.9 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +41.9 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +41.9 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +41.8 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +41.7 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +41.7 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +41.7 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +41.6 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +41.6 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +41.5 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +41.4 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +41.4 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +41.3 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +41.2 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +41.1 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +40.9 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +40.8 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +40.8 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +40.4 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +39.7 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +37.0 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Hawaii| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +42.6 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +42.4 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +42.2 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +42.0 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +41.9 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +41.9 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +41.9 | >99% |
| Vance | D +41.7 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +41.5 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +41.3 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +41.3 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +41.3 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +41.1 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
4 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu County | D +22.0 | D +40.2 | D +48 to D +32 | 227,086 | 96,826 | 329,921 | D +0.72 | Even |
| Hawaii County | D +28.9 | D +44.8 | D +53 to D +37 | 59,011 | 22,466 | 83,351 | D +0.26 | Even |
| Maui County | D +26.5 | D +46.8 | D +55 to D +39 | 43,172 | 15,637 | 60,107 | D +0.31 | Even |
| Kauai County | D +19.9 | D +38.4 | D +46 to D +31 | 19,890 | 8,853 | 29,325 | D +0.34 | Even |