2028 forecast · Hawaii · Democratic primary
Hawaii Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 28.0% | 19,834 | 58% | 18.4% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 18.4% | 13,007 | 29% | 14.9% |
| Newsom | 14.4% | 10,201 | 9% | 10.7% |
| Harris | 13.0% | 9,220 | <1% | 3.9% |
| Ossoff | 7.5% | 5,347 | <1% | 6.1% |
| Kelly | 3.7% | 2,594 | 1% | 5.8% |
| Shapiro | 3.0% | 2,147 | 2% | 6.2% |
| Beshear | 0.6% | 430 | <1% | 3.1% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Hawaii votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in HawaiiBlack 5%, Hispanic 7.4%, Asian and other 46.8%, under 30 9.4%, 65 and up 38.8%, college graduates 49.1%, women 53.9%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 35,044 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 70,889 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu County | 46,924 | Buttigieg | 28.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.3% |
| Hawaii County | 11,352 | Buttigieg | 27.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.2% |
| Maui County | 8,594 | Buttigieg | 27.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.5% |
| Kauai County | 4,019 | Buttigieg | 27.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.8% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 28.0% | 19,867 | 57% | 19.3% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 19.9% | 14,136 | 30% | 15.6% |
| Newsom | 16.4% | 11,664 | 10% | 11.2% |
| Ossoff | 10.9% | 7,761 | 1% | 6.4% |
| Kelly | 6.0% | 4,217 | 1% | 6.1% |
| Shapiro | 4.8% | 3,386 | 2% | 6.5% |
| Beshear | 1.5% | 1,046 | <1% | 3.2% |
| Booker | 0.7% | 478 | <1% | 1.7% |
| Whitmer | 0.4% | 263 | <1% | 1.1% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Hawaii votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in HawaiiBlack 5%, Hispanic 7.4%, Asian and other 46.8%, under 30 9.4%, 65 and up 38.8%, college graduates 49.1%, women 53.9%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 35,044 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 70,889 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu County | 46,924 | Buttigieg | 28.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.9% |
| Hawaii County | 11,352 | Buttigieg | 27.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.8% |
| Maui County | 8,594 | Buttigieg | 27.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.1% |
| Kauai County | 4,019 | Buttigieg | 27.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.4% |