2028 forecast · Georgia · President · 16 electoral votes

The Democrat is likely to carry Georgia.

A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +5.0 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +10.0 and Even. Projected votes: 2,883,470 Democratic, 2,609,991 Republican, 54,373 other, 5,547,834 in all.

90%Democratic win chance
D +5.02028 margin
R +2.22024 actual
13%Chance it is the tipping point

Every county

simulated margin
D +40R +40

20,000 simulated elections

margin, R minus D
D 40D 20EvenR 20R 40

From 2024 to 2028

2024 resultR +2.2Certified county votes.
National environmentD +8.1National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts.
Deaths and agingNo changeOlder cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years.
New 18 to 21 voters1.0 toward D5.9% of the 2028 electorate here.
Life cycle drift0.3 toward RVoters under 44 drifting a little right as they age.
Migration0.4 toward DMovers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028.
2028 modelD +5.0Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 5,250,047 in 2024, 5,547,835 projected.

Democrats against Vance

Georgia
DemocratMarginD win
WarnockHYPD +9.499%
OssoffD +8.198%
HarrisD +7.497%
CrockettHYPD +6.495%
BookerHYPD +6.194%
CubanD +5.693%
Rob SandHYPD +5.592%
PritzkerHYPD +5.592%
BeshearHYPD +5.391%
CooperHYPD +5.291%
KhannaHYPD +5.191%
Stephen A. SmithD +5.090%
Generic DemocratD +5.090%
MurphyHYPD +5.090%
PolisHYPD +5.090%
ButtigiegD +4.990%
TalaricoHYPD +4.989%
WalzHYPD +4.989%
WhitmerHYPD +4.889%
GallegoHYPD +4.889%
El-SayedHYPD +4.788%
EmanuelHYPD +4.688%
BrownHYPD +4.688%
KellyHYPD +4.487%
MooreHYPD +4.487%
KlobucharHYPD +4.085%
ShapiroD +3.883%
Ocasio-CortezD +2.675%
NewsomD +2.170%

Republicans against a generic Democrat

Georgia
RepublicanMarginD win
HaleyHYPD +5.893%
DeSantisHYPD +5.692%
CottonHYPD +5.491%
YoungkinHYPD +5.391%
Huckabee SandersHYPD +5.291%
Rand PaulHYPD +5.090%
VanceD +5.090%
DonaldsHYPD +4.990%
CruzHYPD +4.989%
RubioD +4.889%
Trump Jr.HYPD +4.487%
Tim ScottHYPD +4.185%
KempHYPD +2.977%

HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.

Projected vote in every county

159 counties, largest first
County2024202880% rangeD votesR votesTotalGenerationsMigration
Fulton CountyD +45.4D +57.6D +65 to D +50434,582116,933558,380D +0.55R +0.07
Gwinnett CountyD +16.7D +28.9D +35 to D +23278,527153,793438,170D +0.69Even
Cobb CountyD +15.0D +24.3D +31 to D +18254,685155,060415,112D +0.45Even
DeKalb CountyD +65.4D +78.7D +86 to D +71327,14139,090370,497D +0.44R +0.17
Cherokee CountyR +39.3R +31.4R +25 to R +3860,717116,386179,116R +0.06D +1.07
Forsyth CountyR +33.5R +22.5R +16 to R +2958,01891,713151,649D +0.11D +0.93
Chatham CountyD +18.1D +24.2D +31 to D +1891,28455,766148,530D +0.46Even
Henry CountyD +29.8D +44.3D +52 to D +37102,15539,463142,852D +0.71R +0.07
Clayton CountyD +69.6D +82.7D +91 to D +74103,0939,755113,733D +0.45R +0.09
Hall CountyR +44.1R +37.6R +31 to R +4434,39175,798111,224EvenD +1.08
Paulding CountyR +24.3R +17.0R +11 to R +2344,16762,246107,422D +0.24D +0.87
Coweta CountyR +34.1R +29.4R +23 to R +3632,65959,81493,406D +0.08D +0.78
Columbia CountyR +25.8R +19.7R +14 to R +2636,89254,95092,811D +0.14D +0.59
Houston CountyR +11.3R +5.6D +1 to R +1241,56746,52688,916D +0.37D +0.44
Richmond CountyD +36.3D +48.2D +56 to D +4163,07122,03085,804D +0.70Even
Muscogee CountyD +23.5D +33.5D +41 to D +2753,17826,46080,323D +0.59Even
Fayette CountyR +3.2D +3.1D +10 to R +339,52037,12177,484D +0.26D +0.20
Douglas CountyD +31.7D +45.6D +53 to D +3955,03220,55176,295D +0.68R +0.07
Bibb CountyD +22.5D +32.5D +40 to D +2546,21623,53270,294D +0.64Even
Carroll CountyR +41.4R +37.4R +31 to R +4420,83145,72567,131D +0.10D +0.92
Walton CountyR +46.2R +40.6R +34 to R +4719,69446,65366,928EvenD +1.65
Newton CountyD +15.2D +26.2D +33 to D +1941,19424,10365,817D +0.64D +0.14
Bartow CountyR +51.3R +46.9R +40 to R +5316,66946,13063,357R +0.05D +1.18
Jackson CountyR +55.4R +48.2R +42 to R +5515,18643,49059,199R +0.07D +3.06
Clarke CountyD +38.7D +46.1D +53 to D +4041,36015,25657,342D +0.54R +0.05
Lowndes CountyR +18.1R +13.7R +7 to R +2022,13629,18251,716D +0.50D +0.23
Barrow CountyR +40.7R +33.4R +27 to R +4016,99734,08251,570D +0.09D +1.69
Rockdale CountyD +47.8D +61.7D +69 to D +5438,1199,03347,558D +0.62R +0.18
Floyd CountyR +42.2R +40.0R +34 to R +4613,74332,05746,195EvenD +0.28
Glynn CountyR +26.1R +24.2R +18 to R +3116,71227,40744,460EvenD +0.32
Effingham CountyR +49.3R +44.1R +38 to R +5011,45629,50441,284EvenD +1.50
Whitfield CountyR +44.7R +40.2R +34 to R +4712,13428,44640,928EvenD +0.26
Bulloch CountyR +29.1R +24.4R +18 to R +3114,08923,19637,607D +0.35D +0.69
Catoosa CountyR +55.8R +52.7R +46 to R +598,38427,07935,771R +0.26D +0.38
Spalding CountyR +16.8R +13.4R +7 to R +2014,78119,35334,422D +0.21D +0.34
Dougherty CountyD +41.3D +52.9D +61 to D +4525,3357,80333,335D +0.72Even
Walker CountyR +59.6R +58.1R +52 to R +656,81725,73232,841R +0.28D +0.58
Troup CountyR +24.5R +22.2R +16 to R +2912,54319,71432,504D +0.26D +0.31
Gordon CountyR +63.7R +60.7R +54 to R +675,72223,38729,328R +0.13D +0.93
Camden CountyR +35.9R +32.7R +26 to R +399,78019,27029,338D +0.07D +0.88
Oconee CountyR +36.3R +31.7R +25 to R +389,85519,02229,224R +0.13D +0.65
Bryan CountyR +36.5R +29.9R +24 to R +369,90818,37328,540D +0.08D +1.34
Liberty CountyD +17.5D +25.7D +33 to D +1916,1659,56025,950D +0.85D +0.07
Habersham CountyR +65.2R +61.9R +56 to R +684,72520,08124,992R +0.15D +1.27
Dawson CountyR +65.6R +57.5R +51 to R +645,14019,07224,407R +0.17D +3.51
Laurens CountyR +32.8R +31.7R +25 to R +398,10615,64223,886D +0.18D +0.27
Harris CountyR +46.3R +43.2R +37 to R +496,71116,93923,819R +0.05D +0.81
Pickens CountyR +66.1R +61.4R +55 to R +684,33218,10522,621R +0.27D +1.67
Thomas CountyR +24.2R +22.9R +16 to R +308,55613,63822,330D +0.16D +0.13
Polk CountyR +60.7R +58.7R +52 to R +654,13715,91620,182R +0.07D +0.78
Monroe CountyR +46.8R +43.7R +37 to R +505,58314,25419,968EvenD +1.50
Lumpkin CountyR +62.1R +56.9R +51 to R +634,22715,38319,802R +0.17D +1.06
Baldwin CountyR +2.2D +1.1D +8 to R +69,8619,64219,657D +0.60Even
Gilmer CountyR +62.9R +60.4R +54 to R +673,75115,19019,083R +0.32D +1.20
Union CountyR +62.8R +62.2R +56 to R +693,55815,26618,959R +0.38D +1.87
Lee CountyR +43.7R +39.0R +33 to R +455,58012,72718,431D +0.13D +0.26
Murray CountyR +71.8R +68.9R +62 to R +762,80215,22118,131R +0.14D +0.59
Madison CountyR +55.1R +51.9R +45 to R +594,31013,62718,081R +0.15D +1.12
Haralson CountyR +74.7R +70.9R +64 to R +782,59115,22617,934R +0.12D +1.54
White CountyR +68.8R +67.1R +61 to R +742,87214,57417,583R +0.23D +1.01
Tift CountyR +35.8R +32.6R +26 to R +395,83811,48017,428D +0.19D +0.19
Colquitt CountyR +50.3R +49.0R +42 to R +564,24612,40816,750D +0.06D +0.24
Jones CountyR +38.2R +36.8R +30 to R +435,20511,26316,571EvenD +0.31
Coffee CountyR +45.2R +44.2R +38 to R +514,49911,64116,227D +0.14D +0.29
Fannin CountyR +65.0R +66.3R +60 to R +732,67413,19915,970R +0.35D +0.67
Hart CountyR +55.0R +55.2R +49 to R +623,40411,80515,309R +0.16D +1.35
Peach CountyR +6.1R +2.0D +5 to R +97,0777,37014,548D +0.54D +0.31
Ware CountyR +43.3R +42.7R +36 to R +504,13810,30014,524EvenD +0.19
Wayne CountyR +59.9R +58.7R +52 to R +652,96011,38814,434R +0.05D +0.98
Morgan CountyR +46.2R +43.8R +37 to R +503,97110,15714,231R +0.05D +1.08
Upson CountyR +39.9R +40.2R +33 to R +474,1739,79114,041EvenD +0.34
Butts CountyR +45.3R +41.7R +35 to R +494,0589,85514,004D +0.10D +0.73
Pike CountyR +73.7R +69.9R +63 to R +762,07711,71013,868R +0.07D +1.53
Greene CountyR +29.1R +28.2R +22 to R +354,8778,71713,685R +0.08D +1.11
Stephens CountyR +63.1R +63.2R +56 to R +702,46210,92513,489R +0.19D +0.65
Putnam CountyR +42.4R +41.9R +36 to R +483,8369,36713,287R +0.10D +0.80
Franklin CountyR +72.8R +71.9R +65 to R +791,84711,30113,227R +0.13D +1.59
Meriwether CountyR +25.6R +24.4R +17 to R +324,5657,50912,146D +0.16D +0.39
Sumter CountyD +2.2D +8.4D +15 to D +16,4885,48712,050D +0.67Even
Banks CountyR +78.3R +75.8R +69 to R +831,44810,51112,026R +0.12D +2.55
Lamar CountyR +46.1R +43.8R +37 to R +513,2798,39811,754D +0.10D +1.37
Decatur CountyR +24.0R +21.6R +15 to R +294,5167,00111,582D +0.30Even
Burke CountyR +9.4R +6.8D +0 to R +145,1465,89311,109D +0.41Even
Toombs CountyR +50.9R +50.3R +44 to R +572,7288,25311,046D +0.06D +0.19
Grady CountyR +38.4R +38.2R +31 to R +453,2877,34410,694EvenD +0.15
Jasper CountyR +58.6R +54.5R +48 to R +612,4198,21210,699EvenD +2.38
Chattooga CountyR +64.4R +64.3R +57 to R +711,8968,73010,699R +0.18D +0.23
McDuffie CountyR +25.0R +23.2R +16 to R +304,0246,45810,549D +0.21D +0.05
Rabun CountyR +57.2R +56.9R +51 to R +632,2428,15310,476R +0.36D +0.75
Pierce CountyR +77.6R +77.5R +71 to R +841,1439,02210,211R +0.11D +0.89
Emanuel CountyR +44.3R +43.9R +37 to R +512,7417,0239,816D +0.13D +0.20
Elbert CountyR +43.5R +44.3R +38 to R +512,6586,8909,603R +0.05D +0.29
Oglethorpe CountyR +42.6R +39.8R +33 to R +462,8536,6319,567R +0.08D +1.07
Washington CountyR +1.9D +3.5D +11 to R +44,8094,4839,342D +0.51Even
Towns CountyR +62.5R +63.0R +57 to R +691,6637,3369,055R +0.38D +1.12
Worth CountyR +50.5R +50.1R +43 to R +572,2286,7028,973R +0.06Even
Long CountyR +29.6R +23.6R +17 to R +313,4115,5148,992D +0.28D +2.05
Brantley CountyR +82.6R +80.2R +73 to R +878717,9208,838R +0.12D +0.88
Tattnall CountyR +53.6R +52.6R +46 to R +592,0356,5548,641D +0.09D +0.06
Appling CountyR +62.5R +62.7R +56 to R +701,5776,8698,483R +0.06D +0.46
Mitchell CountyR +16.4R +13.4R +6 to R +213,6374,7628,442D +0.34Even
Berrien CountyR +70.0R +69.7R +63 to R +761,2537,0248,321R +0.14D +0.69
Dodge CountyR +50.0R +50.7R +44 to R +582,0036,1328,180EvenEven
Dade CountyR +67.0R +65.0R +58 to R +721,4176,6878,181R +0.25D +0.05
Crisp CountyR +26.0R +24.8R +18 to R +322,9054,8197,769D +0.16Even
McIntosh CountyR +28.7R +28.3R +22 to R +352,7634,9407,757R +0.06D +0.85
Cook CountyR +46.6R +45.9R +39 to R +532,0635,5567,669D +0.07D +0.58
Jefferson CountyR +1.2D +2.1D +10 to R +63,6813,5307,250D +0.56Even
Brooks CountyR +26.9R +26.5R +20 to R +332,5674,4147,019D +0.10D +0.06
Screven CountyR +25.3R +24.3R +17 to R +322,6114,2876,935D +0.08D +0.25
Heard CountyR +72.3R +70.0R +63 to R +779785,5476,564R +0.13D +1.01
Ben Hill CountyR +32.1R +31.7R +25 to R +392,1834,2056,426D +0.13Even
Crawford CountyR +50.0R +48.8R +42 to R +561,6134,6876,337R +0.07D +0.14
Bleckley CountyR +55.5R +54.0R +47 to R +611,4434,8346,319EvenD +0.33
Jeff Davis CountyR +68.5R +68.5R +62 to R +759425,0456,019R +0.07D +0.44
Lincoln CountyR +45.0R +45.0R +38 to R +521,3793,6345,045R +0.09D +0.68
Charlton CountyR +56.4R +54.7R +48 to R +621,1213,8284,977D +0.17D +0.62
Wilkes CountyR +16.9R +15.5R +9 to R +232,0922,8574,977D +0.15Even
Wilkinson CountyR +17.9R +17.9R +11 to R +251,9772,8404,840D +0.27Even
Bacon CountyR +73.3R +73.4R +66 to R +806374,1494,807R +0.08Even
Early CountyR +11.5R +7.2D +0 to R +152,1842,5224,725D +0.39Even
Candler CountyR +47.6R +47.5R +41 to R +541,2153,4154,653EvenD +0.36
Macon CountyD +18.0D +24.8D +33 to D +172,8451,7144,583D +0.64Even
Pulaski CountyR +40.7R +41.2R +34 to R +481,2733,0574,358R +0.07D +0.42
Evans CountyR +42.5R +42.0R +35 to R +491,2423,0434,314D +0.09D +0.26
Twiggs CountyR +14.7R +15.2R +8 to R +231,7712,4074,200D +0.15Even
Hancock CountyD +35.5D +41.3D +50 to D +332,9321,2194,173D +0.56Even
Irwin CountyR +54.4R +54.6R +48 to R +619393,1964,159EvenEven
Terrell CountyD +4.1D +11.4D +19 to D +42,3011,8284,152D +0.56Even
Montgomery CountyR +53.2R +52.4R +46 to R +599583,0694,049D +0.08D +0.07
Dooly CountyR +7.7R +4.5D +3 to R +121,9032,0844,009D +0.23D +0.05
Johnson CountyR +46.4R +47.6R +40 to R +551,0402,9333,991EvenD +0.23
Lanier CountyR +46.5R +43.7R +37 to R +501,1032,8183,949EvenD +0.73
Taylor CountyR +31.1R +31.9R +25 to R +391,3302,5763,930D +0.10D +0.05
Seminole CountyR +40.5R +42.8R +36 to R +501,1092,7683,894R +0.13D +0.18
Telfair CountyR +39.4R +37.6R +30 to R +451,2022,6493,870D +0.22Even
Turner CountyR +28.6R +29.3R +22 to R +371,3482,4663,836D +0.22Even
Marion CountyR +30.4R +28.7R +22 to R +351,2812,3123,620EvenD +0.23
Jenkins CountyR +30.6R +29.7R +22 to R +371,1882,1933,401D +0.05D +0.24
Wilcox CountyR +49.3R +50.2R +43 to R +578242,4863,325EvenD +0.14
Talbot CountyD +12.0D +16.9D +25 to D +91,9211,3673,304D +0.38Even
Treutlen CountyR +44.5R +44.9R +38 to R +528752,3013,192D +0.17D +0.16
Atkinson CountyR +54.1R +52.4R +45 to R +607262,3273,069D +0.08D +0.23
Clinch CountyR +51.6R +51.5R +44 to R +597052,2012,919EvenD +0.17
Randolph CountyD +7.7D +15.3D +24 to D +71,6681,2242,911D +0.88Even
Miller CountyR +50.6R +51.3R +45 to R +586311,9602,605R +0.11Even
Warren CountyD +4.7D +8.5D +16 to D +11,3961,1782,587D +0.43D +0.07
Schley CountyR +62.6R +63.7R +57 to R +704442,0032,459R +0.07D +0.10
Wheeler CountyR +45.2R +43.9R +37 to R +516731,7272,413D +0.35D +0.21
Calhoun CountyD +12.3D +20.2D +28 to D +121,2148052,028D +0.61Even
Glascock CountyR +84.0R +82.2R +75 to R +891601,6451,813R +0.09D +1.49
Stewart CountyD +16.3D +26.7D +35 to D +181,1066401,754D +0.60Even
Chattahoochee CountyR +16.6R +6.2Even to R +138149221,752D +0.61D +0.06
Echols CountyR +82.3R +77.2R +71 to R +841661,2891,463D +0.08D +0.23
Clay CountyD +7.5D +12.7D +20 to D +57856081,402D +0.42Even
Baker CountyR +19.9R +20.5R +14 to R +275428211,369D +0.17D +0.07
Webster CountyR +18.4R +12.4R +5 to R +205837481,337D +0.58D +0.11
Quitman CountyR +15.5R +15.1R +8 to R +234626271,094D +0.11D +0.22
Taliaferro CountyD +15.0D +20.5D +28 to D +13550363917D +0.50D +0.12