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2028 forecast · Georgia · Democratic primary

Georgia Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 76% of runs
48.2%Harris's projected share
1,339,398Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Harris48.2%645,52476%34.7%
Ossoff18.4%247,00624%24.4%
Newsom7.4%98,616<1%3.8%
Buttigieg6.1%82,181<1%2.2%
Ocasio-Cortez5.1%67,952<1%2.2%
Kelly1.7%23,126<1%1.9%
Shapiro1.3%17,497<1%1.9%
Beshear0.4%5,099<1%1.5%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Georgia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
HarrisButtigiegOssoffOcasio-Cortez

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Georgia
Progressive31%
Working class and union19%
Institutional17%
Democratic leaning independents15%
Civil rights coalition9%
Moderate independents3%

Black 48.5%, Hispanic 4.7%, Asian and other 3.4%, under 30 15.2%, 65 and up 23.8%, college graduates 43.8%, women 54.7%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,086,729 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,339,398 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Fulton County173,902Harris45.9%Ossoff22.6%
DeKalb County129,542Harris56.5%Ossoff19.1%
Gwinnett County124,183Harris45.9%Ossoff22.1%
Cobb County110,383Harris38.5%Ossoff22.5%
Clayton County48,268Harris73.9%Ossoff9.9%
Henry County45,024Harris64.9%Ossoff14.8%
Chatham County40,391Harris51.0%Ossoff19.6%
Richmond County29,031Harris66.8%Ossoff13.7%
Cherokee County27,389Harris21.4%Buttigieg19.2%
Muscogee County25,721Harris61.5%Ossoff16.0%
Douglas County24,727Harris64.0%Ossoff15.2%
Forsyth County24,048Buttigieg27.0%Harris14.7%
Bibb County22,903Harris66.1%Ossoff13.7%
Paulding County20,964Harris44.0%Ossoff20.5%
Houston County20,723Harris51.1%Ossoff19.3%
Fayette County19,012Harris42.9%Ossoff19.4%
Newton County18,958Harris64.1%Ossoff14.9%
Columbia County17,973Harris37.2%Ossoff20.0%
Rockdale County17,138Harris69.3%Ossoff12.2%
Coweta County17,083Harris37.1%Ossoff19.6%
Hall County17,000Harris26.5%Ossoff17.9%
Clarke County14,384Harris29.3%Ossoff25.9%
Dougherty County13,186Harris74.3%Ossoff9.2%
Lowndes County11,791Harris49.5%Ossoff21.1%
Carroll County10,871Harris36.7%Ossoff20.6%
Walton County10,394Harris41.2%Ossoff19.0%
Glynn County9,319Harris45.2%Ossoff17.1%
Bartow County9,024Harris30.2%Ossoff18.8%
Spalding County8,028Harris58.6%Ossoff15.5%
Barrow County7,823Harris36.2%Ossoff19.7%
Floyd County7,694Harris32.9%Ossoff18.7%
Troup County7,477Harris54.8%Ossoff17.8%
Liberty County7,097Harris56.9%Ossoff19.6%
Jackson County6,934Harris25.7%Ossoff17.7%
Bulloch County6,880Harris35.2%Ossoff24.7%
Whitfield County6,278Harris24.3%Ossoff16.8%
Effingham County6,084Harris35.1%Ossoff19.4%
Laurens County5,335Harris58.1%Ossoff16.1%
Thomas County5,233Harris56.5%Ossoff16.6%
Baldwin County5,160Harris54.5%Ossoff19.5%
Camden County4,876Harris35.8%Ossoff20.8%
Catoosa County4,530Buttigieg22.4%Harris19.5%
Bryan County4,516Harris30.1%Ossoff19.9%
Oconee County4,483Buttigieg29.9%Ocasio-Cortez14.5%
Walker County4,061Harris22.7%Buttigieg20.0%
Harris County3,999Harris34.5%Ossoff18.9%
Tift County3,684Harris52.0%Ossoff18.4%
Peach County3,681Harris58.5%Ossoff17.0%
Sumter County3,622Harris62.6%Ossoff15.6%
Gordon County3,526Harris24.1%Buttigieg16.3%
Lee County3,482Harris42.8%Ossoff20.5%
Jones County3,264Harris51.4%Ossoff17.7%
Monroe County3,226Harris42.2%Ossoff19.2%
Coffee County3,084Harris51.1%Ossoff18.4%
Burke County3,065Harris64.2%Ossoff14.1%
Colquitt County3,026Harris47.3%Ossoff18.4%
Habersham County2,927Harris21.6%Buttigieg19.2%
Washington County2,918Harris68.4%Ossoff12.2%
Decatur County2,913Harris62.4%Ossoff14.6%
Greene County2,865Harris51.0%Ossoff15.7%
Meriwether County2,849Harris63.1%Ossoff13.8%
Ware County2,839Harris54.3%Ossoff16.6%
Polk County2,807Harris36.3%Ossoff18.5%
Upson County2,678Harris50.5%Ossoff17.7%
McDuffie County2,577Harris61.4%Ossoff14.7%
Putnam County2,461Harris44.1%Ossoff17.0%
Madison County2,455Harris30.6%Ossoff17.5%
Pickens County2,451Buttigieg24.5%Harris18.6%
Mitchell County2,443Harris67.0%Ossoff12.5%
Butts County2,427Harris47.6%Ossoff19.2%
Morgan County2,423Harris42.7%Ossoff18.5%
Dawson County2,418Buttigieg25.4%Harris16.1%
Jefferson County2,293Harris68.9%Ossoff12.0%
Hart County2,288Harris41.0%Ossoff17.1%
Gilmer County2,238Buttigieg24.1%Harris19.2%
Lumpkin County2,225Ocasio-Cortez21.9%Buttigieg21.3%
Grady County2,213Harris53.6%Ossoff16.5%
Union County2,157Buttigieg24.7%Harris19.9%
Wayne County2,127Harris42.6%Ossoff18.7%
Lamar County1,994Harris48.5%Ossoff19.2%
Crisp County1,974Harris62.9%Ossoff13.8%
Toombs County1,956Harris46.1%Ossoff18.7%
Emanuel County1,954Harris56.1%Ossoff16.6%
White County1,947Buttigieg21.9%Harris20.4%
Murray County1,937Harris21.3%Buttigieg18.7%
Fannin County1,876Buttigieg24.8%Harris19.6%
Haralson County1,847Harris25.9%Ossoff16.2%
Elbert County1,799Harris49.9%Ossoff16.6%
Stephens County1,723Harris31.7%Ossoff16.6%
Screven County1,717Harris65.3%Ossoff12.5%
Worth County1,683Harris53.8%Ossoff15.8%
McIntosh County1,654Harris60.5%Ossoff13.0%
Brooks County1,641Harris58.7%Ossoff15.0%
Hancock County1,610Harris77.5%Ossoff7.0%
Macon County1,601Harris72.6%Ossoff10.0%
Dodge County1,589Harris53.8%Ossoff16.4%
Tattnall County1,571Harris51.5%Ossoff18.0%
Oglethorpe County1,557Harris37.4%Ossoff18.5%
Pike County1,549Harris29.6%Ossoff18.1%
Ben Hill County1,511Harris62.0%Ossoff14.2%
Long County1,503Harris48.3%Ossoff20.4%
Franklin County1,461Harris29.5%Ossoff16.9%
Jasper County1,441Harris40.7%Ossoff18.7%
Chattooga County1,423Harris35.1%Ossoff16.6%
Early County1,419Harris70.1%Ossoff10.7%
Cook County1,414Harris50.6%Ossoff17.9%
Terrell County1,409Harris72.4%Ossoff9.9%
Rabun County1,351Buttigieg26.2%Harris18.1%
Wilkes County1,324Harris65.1%Ossoff12.6%
Appling County1,277Harris46.1%Ossoff17.5%
Wilkinson County1,234Harris62.0%Ossoff14.7%
Dooly County1,222Harris70.1%Ossoff10.5%
Twiggs County1,148Harris66.5%Ossoff12.0%
Pierce County1,147Harris30.4%Ossoff17.0%
Crawford County1,124Harris49.3%Ossoff16.8%
Banks County1,106Harris22.0%Buttigieg19.4%
Talbot County1,099Harris74.0%Ossoff8.8%
Randolph County1,090Harris76.0%Ossoff8.0%
Towns County1,060Buttigieg27.7%Harris17.2%
Berrien County1,055Harris35.6%Ossoff17.1%
Bleckley County1,008Harris42.2%Ossoff20.1%
Telfair County963Harris63.6%Ossoff13.7%
Lincoln County956Harris56.1%Ossoff14.8%
Taylor County951Harris63.4%Ossoff13.4%
Dade County928Buttigieg21.1%Harris20.2%
Turner County875Harris59.3%Ossoff15.6%
Pulaski County866Harris56.0%Ossoff14.9%
Brantley County864Harris26.3%Buttigieg16.0%
Evans County862Harris54.4%Ossoff16.8%
Candler County854Harris49.9%Ossoff17.4%
Charlton County825Harris49.8%Ossoff19.6%
Seminole County822Harris60.6%Ossoff13.0%
Warren County820Harris72.3%Ossoff9.8%
Jenkins County800Harris64.5%Ossoff12.6%
Johnson County793Harris60.4%Ossoff14.1%
Jeff Davis County792Harris36.3%Ossoff18.1%
Marion County779Harris54.4%Ossoff16.0%
Stewart County769Harris76.6%Ossoff7.7%
Heard County749Harris33.2%Ossoff16.4%
Irwin County741Harris46.7%Ossoff18.5%
Montgomery County713Harris46.0%Ossoff19.4%
Calhoun County691Harris71.7%Ossoff10.6%
Lanier County677Harris44.8%Ossoff19.0%
Wilcox County665Harris58.8%Ossoff14.8%
Bacon County632Harris43.0%Ossoff14.1%
Treutlen County624Harris54.9%Ossoff17.2%
Atkinson County523Harris45.8%Ossoff18.6%
Miller County500Harris51.9%Ossoff15.7%
Clinch County492Harris48.0%Ossoff17.4%
Wheeler County480Harris56.8%Ossoff18.2%
Clay County459Harris72.2%Ossoff9.6%
Webster County390Harris70.0%Ossoff11.5%
Chattahoochee County385Ossoff28.1%Harris27.6%
Schley County370Harris38.3%Ossoff18.9%
Baker County364Harris62.2%Ossoff13.6%
Quitman County319Harris74.1%Ossoff7.9%
Taliaferro County286Harris73.6%Ossoff8.9%
Echols County173Harris34.1%Ossoff20.0%
Glascock County169Harris26.3%Buttigieg16.9%