2028 forecast · Florida · President · 30 electoral votes
The Republican is likely to carry Florida.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +4.3 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +2.3 and R +10.9. Projected votes: 5,383,054 Democratic, 5,869,416 Republican, 121,233 other, 11,373,703 in all.
19%Democratic win chance
R +4.32028 margin
R +13.22024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +13.2 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +2.1 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.3 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.9 toward D | 5.0% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.6 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +4.3 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 10,893,547 in 2024, 11,373,704 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Florida| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +3.0 | 28% |
| Ossoff | R +3.2 | 27% |
| Harris | R +3.3 | 26% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +3.4 | 25% |
| BookerHYP | R +3.6 | 24% |
| CooperHYP | R +3.7 | 24% |
| Cuban | R +3.7 | 24% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +3.8 | 23% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +4.0 | 22% |
| CrockettHYP | R +4.0 | 22% |
| WarnockHYP | R +4.0 | 22% |
| GallegoHYP | R +4.0 | 22% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +4.1 | 21% |
| KellyHYP | R +4.1 | 21% |
| BrownHYP | R +4.2 | 21% |
| BeshearHYP | R +4.2 | 21% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +4.3 | 20% |
| WalzHYP | R +4.3 | 20% |
| Generic Democrat | R +4.3 | 20% |
| PolisHYP | R +4.5 | 19% |
| MurphyHYP | R +4.5 | 19% |
| KhannaHYP | R +4.6 | 19% |
| Shapiro | R +4.7 | 18% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +4.7 | 18% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +4.9 | 17% |
| MooreHYP | R +5.2 | 16% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +5.3 | 15% |
| Newsom | R +5.5 | 14% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +8.0 | 6% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Florida| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +3.9 | 22% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +3.9 | 22% |
| CottonHYP | R +4.1 | 22% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +4.2 | 21% |
| KempHYP | R +4.2 | 21% |
| HaleyHYP | R +4.3 | 20% |
| Vance | R +4.3 | 20% |
| CruzHYP | R +4.4 | 20% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +4.4 | 20% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +4.5 | 19% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +5.3 | 15% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +6.5 | 10% |
| Rubio | R +8.3 | 5% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
67 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade County | R +11.5 | D +9.3 | D +20 to R +1 | 571,954 | 474,190 | 1,055,253 | D +0.81 | D +0.28 |
| Broward County | D +17.1 | D +32.4 | D +40 to D +25 | 561,568 | 286,479 | 856,472 | D +0.52 | Even |
| Palm Beach County | D +0.8 | D +12.7 | D +20 to D +5 | 412,811 | 319,683 | 739,497 | D +0.06 | D +0.13 |
| Hillsborough County | R +3.1 | D +9.6 | D +17 to D +2 | 381,286 | 314,367 | 705,126 | D +0.37 | D +0.20 |
| Orange County | D +13.8 | D +27.8 | D +36 to D +20 | 394,342 | 222,935 | 625,895 | D +0.59 | D +0.05 |
| Pinellas County | R +5.3 | D +0.1 | D +8 to R +7 | 247,006 | 246,269 | 499,112 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Duval County | R +1.5 | D +7.2 | D +15 to R +1 | 263,381 | 228,189 | 498,043 | D +0.40 | D +0.20 |
| Lee County | R +28.6 | R +22.6 | R +15 to R +30 | 159,519 | 252,636 | 415,819 | R +0.28 | D +1.14 |
| Polk County | R +20.9 | R +14.7 | R +7 to R +23 | 169,936 | 228,300 | 402,482 | D +0.11 | D +1.27 |
| Brevard County | R +21.0 | R +16.8 | R +9 to R +24 | 157,176 | 220,520 | 382,312 | R +0.19 | D +0.67 |
| Pasco County | R +25.5 | R +19.7 | R +12 to R +27 | 144,282 | 215,219 | 363,760 | R +0.17 | D +1.40 |
| Volusia County | R +21.9 | R +16.1 | R +8 to R +24 | 136,286 | 188,778 | 328,510 | R +0.20 | D +0.70 |
| Sarasota County | R +18.3 | R +14.6 | R +7 to R +22 | 120,161 | 161,089 | 283,825 | R +0.54 | D +0.76 |
| Seminole County | R +3.6 | D +5.9 | D +13 to R +2 | 136,771 | 121,630 | 262,003 | D +0.20 | D +0.12 |
| Lake County | R +24.9 | R +21.2 | R +13 to R +29 | 98,795 | 152,019 | 253,274 | R +0.18 | D +1.33 |
| Manatee County | R +23.7 | R +17.8 | R +10 to R +25 | 101,401 | 145,235 | 248,998 | R +0.30 | D +1.19 |
| St. Johns County | R +31.6 | R +22.2 | R +14 to R +30 | 91,366 | 143,399 | 237,383 | R +0.20 | D +1.99 |
| Marion County | R +31.9 | R +28.5 | R +21 to R +36 | 83,708 | 150,493 | 236,317 | R +0.23 | D +1.48 |
| Collier County | R +33.3 | R +27.8 | R +20 to R +36 | 78,164 | 138,233 | 218,174 | R +0.32 | D +0.91 |
| St. Lucie County | R +9.1 | R +2.3 | D +6 to R +10 | 102,448 | 107,234 | 211,557 | D +0.05 | D +1.03 |
| Osceola County | R +1.5 | D +16.5 | D +25 to D +8 | 114,250 | 81,886 | 198,465 | D +0.65 | D +0.71 |
| Leon County | D +22.0 | D +32.7 | D +41 to D +25 | 111,704 | 56,656 | 170,613 | D +0.58 | Even |
| Escambia County | R +19.8 | R +15.4 | R +8 to R +23 | 71,072 | 97,024 | 170,267 | D +0.17 | D +0.22 |
| Alachua County | D +21.3 | D +29.6 | D +37 to D +22 | 95,080 | 51,605 | 148,962 | D +0.43 | Even |
| Clay County | R +39.6 | R +35.2 | R +28 to R +43 | 44,054 | 91,995 | 137,592 | Even | D +0.91 |
| Charlotte County | R +34.2 | R +32.3 | R +25 to R +40 | 43,834 | 85,707 | 130,609 | R +0.54 | D +1.52 |
| Santa Rosa County | R +51.4 | R +45.6 | R +38 to R +53 | 33,471 | 89,672 | 124,669 | R +0.12 | D +1.34 |
| Hernando County | R +37.3 | R +32.1 | R +24 to R +40 | 40,344 | 78,533 | 120,014 | R +0.29 | D +1.33 |
| Okaloosa County | R +42.9 | R +39.0 | R +32 to R +47 | 35,577 | 81,147 | 118,335 | Even | D +0.36 |
| Sumter County | R +37.8 | R +38.2 | R +31 to R +46 | 34,403 | 76,846 | 111,988 | R +0.59 | D +2.12 |
| Bay County | R +47.9 | R +42.1 | R +35 to R +50 | 31,223 | 76,690 | 109,293 | R +0.10 | D +1.62 |
| Citrus County | R +46.2 | R +44.9 | R +37 to R +53 | 27,923 | 73,511 | 102,299 | R +0.48 | D +1.42 |
| Indian River County | R +27.5 | R +25.5 | R +18 to R +33 | 37,129 | 62,596 | 100,585 | R +0.41 | D +0.75 |
| Martin County | R +31.3 | R +27.4 | R +20 to R +35 | 35,219 | 61,815 | 97,859 | R +0.40 | D +0.50 |
| Flagler County | R +28.4 | R +23.3 | R +16 to R +31 | 34,420 | 55,286 | 90,478 | R +0.31 | D +1.65 |
| Nassau County | R +47.3 | R +43.0 | R +35 to R +51 | 21,086 | 52,878 | 74,727 | R +0.25 | D +1.90 |
| Walton County | R +58.2 | R +48.1 | R +40 to R +56 | 15,016 | 42,805 | 58,355 | R +0.20 | D +2.66 |
| Highlands County | R +41.0 | R +40.0 | R +32 to R +48 | 15,695 | 36,608 | 52,715 | R +0.34 | D +1.13 |
| Monroe County | R +18.5 | R +9.0 | R +1 to R +17 | 18,482 | 22,131 | 41,018 | R +0.21 | D +0.17 |
| Putnam County | R +48.1 | R +44.1 | R +36 to R +52 | 10,352 | 26,654 | 37,316 | R +0.18 | D +0.75 |
| Columbia County | R +50.5 | R +47.2 | R +39 to R +55 | 9,164 | 25,529 | 35,003 | R +0.11 | D +0.75 |
| Levy County | R +50.5 | R +47.1 | R +39 to R +55 | 6,917 | 19,232 | 26,359 | R +0.26 | D +1.51 |
| Suwannee County | R +61.3 | R +57.8 | R +50 to R +66 | 4,928 | 18,413 | 23,515 | R +0.15 | D +1.40 |
| Jackson County | R +46.4 | R +40.7 | R +33 to R +49 | 6,727 | 15,974 | 22,876 | Even | D +0.59 |
| Wakulla County | R +44.7 | R +37.5 | R +30 to R +45 | 6,814 | 15,003 | 22,043 | R +0.07 | D +1.27 |
| Gadsden County | D +30.9 | D +42.6 | D +51 to D +34 | 15,470 | 6,225 | 21,882 | D +0.56 | Even |
| Okeechobee County | R +54.1 | R +47.0 | R +39 to R +55 | 4,425 | 12,289 | 16,828 | R +0.14 | D +0.92 |
| Baker County | R +73.4 | R +66.2 | R +58 to R +74 | 2,669 | 13,111 | 15,886 | Even | D +0.71 |
| Hendry County | R +38.6 | R +22.9 | R +14 to R +32 | 5,886 | 9,380 | 15,416 | D +0.49 | D +1.67 |
| Bradford County | R +57.5 | R +53.5 | R +45 to R +62 | 3,234 | 10,689 | 14,025 | R +0.06 | Even |
| Washington County | R +65.8 | R +60.3 | R +52 to R +69 | 2,580 | 10,424 | 13,107 | R +0.09 | D +0.78 |
| DeSoto County | R +43.2 | R +38.0 | R +30 to R +46 | 3,994 | 8,885 | 12,982 | R +0.12 | D +0.94 |
| Gilchrist County | R +68.6 | R +62.6 | R +54 to R +71 | 2,198 | 9,547 | 11,863 | R +0.19 | D +1.94 |
| Taylor County | R +60.0 | R +55.9 | R +48 to R +64 | 2,103 | 7,427 | 9,600 | R +0.10 | D +0.14 |
| Gulf County | R +54.5 | R +50.4 | R +43 to R +58 | 2,316 | 7,024 | 9,413 | R +0.15 | D +1.48 |
| Madison County | R +29.0 | R +21.4 | R +13 to R +30 | 3,664 | 5,664 | 9,394 | D +0.18 | D +0.41 |
| Holmes County | R +80.6 | R +80.2 | R +72 to R +88 | 908 | 8,252 | 9,221 | R +0.13 | D +0.52 |
| Jefferson County | R +18.7 | R +10.7 | R +3 to R +19 | 4,043 | 5,015 | 9,140 | D +0.11 | D +0.69 |
| Dixie County | R +70.8 | R +67.6 | R +59 to R +76 | 1,367 | 7,063 | 8,487 | R +0.20 | D +1.24 |
| Hardee County | R +56.7 | R +49.1 | R +41 to R +57 | 2,109 | 6,179 | 8,360 | D +0.06 | D +0.25 |
| Franklin County | R +44.2 | R +40.9 | R +33 to R +49 | 2,003 | 4,774 | 6,842 | R +0.27 | D +0.59 |
| Union County | R +68.7 | R +65.6 | R +57 to R +74 | 1,076 | 5,187 | 6,312 | Even | D +0.14 |
| Calhoun County | R +68.0 | R +63.1 | R +55 to R +71 | 1,153 | 5,092 | 6,296 | R +0.08 | Even |
| Hamilton County | R +39.3 | R +32.7 | R +24 to R +41 | 1,930 | 3,808 | 5,789 | D +0.12 | D +0.19 |
| Glades County | R +53.5 | R +49.6 | R +41 to R +58 | 1,378 | 4,090 | 5,503 | R +0.09 | D +1.14 |
| Lafayette County | R +76.4 | R +71.2 | R +63 to R +80 | 564 | 3,354 | 3,944 | Even | D +1.08 |
| Liberty County | R +67.3 | R +59.9 | R +52 to R +68 | 705 | 2,812 | 3,548 | Even | Even |