2028 forecast · Florida · Democratic primary

Florida Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 96% of runs

43.0%Harris's projected share

2,067,871Projected primary votes

3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	43.0%	889,995	96%	34.2%
Buttigieg	11.4%	236,543	<1%	5.1%
Newsom	11.3%	233,964	1%	8.2%
Ossoff	9.8%	202,330	3%	8.8%
Ocasio-Cortez	7.2%	148,382	<1%	3.3%
Kelly	3.2%	66,271	<1%	5.2%
Shapiro	2.1%	43,227	<1%	3.9%
Beshear	0.6%	12,003	<1%	3.1%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Florida votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

HarrisButtigieg

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Florida

Progressive41%

Working class and union23%

Institutional22%

Civil rights coalition9%

Democratic leaning independents3%

Black 29.4%, Hispanic 15.5%, Asian and other 2.5%, under 30 12.5%, 65 and up 32.7%, college graduates 43.2%, women 55.2%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,739,214 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 2,067,871 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Miami-Dade County	289,775	Harris	56.9%	Ossoff	9.2%
Broward County	228,608	Harris	61.7%	Ossoff	9.3%
Palm Beach County	152,888	Harris	42.6%	Newsom	12.3%
Orange County	142,332	Harris	45.2%	Ossoff	11.5%
Hillsborough County	137,773	Harris	39.4%	Newsom	12.1%
Duval County	104,352	Harris	56.0%	Ossoff	11.2%
Pinellas County	87,520	Harris	27.0%	Buttigieg	20.2%
Polk County	60,833	Harris	45.9%	Newsom	10.6%
Lee County	57,972	Harris	29.2%	Buttigieg	19.0%
Brevard County	57,086	Harris	31.3%	Buttigieg	17.3%
Volusia County	48,472	Harris	33.8%	Buttigieg	15.3%
Seminole County	48,028	Harris	30.8%	Buttigieg	15.4%
Pasco County	46,832	Harris	28.2%	Buttigieg	18.1%
Sarasota County	40,806	Buttigieg	28.8%	Harris	19.4%
Osceola County	38,180	Harris	43.4%	Ossoff	11.7%
St. Lucie County	36,710	Harris	55.5%	Ossoff	8.9%
Leon County	36,650	Harris	40.7%	Ossoff	15.7%
Lake County	35,353	Harris	37.3%	Buttigieg	13.7%
Manatee County	34,786	Harris	26.9%	Buttigieg	20.6%
Marion County	31,875	Harris	41.6%	Buttigieg	11.9%
Collier County	31,291	Harris	24.6%	Buttigieg	23.5%
Escambia County	29,167	Harris	46.9%	Ossoff	11.8%
Alachua County	28,834	Harris	28.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	15.1%
St. Johns County	28,121	Buttigieg	28.3%	Harris	18.1%
Clay County	18,313	Harris	38.6%	Buttigieg	12.1%
Charlotte County	16,038	Harris	27.8%	Buttigieg	21.1%
Okaloosa County	15,294	Harris	28.8%	Buttigieg	17.6%
Indian River County	14,345	Harris	28.3%	Buttigieg	20.6%
Hernando County	14,320	Harris	30.0%	Buttigieg	17.4%
Sumter County	13,693	Harris	29.4%	Buttigieg	21.6%
Martin County	13,561	Buttigieg	24.7%	Harris	22.9%
Santa Rosa County	13,114	Harris	24.6%	Buttigieg	20.4%
Bay County	12,596	Harris	33.3%	Buttigieg	15.7%
Flagler County	11,916	Harris	34.1%	Buttigieg	16.1%
Citrus County	10,823	Harris	25.1%	Buttigieg	22.0%
Nassau County	8,025	Harris	24.7%	Buttigieg	21.4%
Monroe County	7,185	Harris	24.9%	Buttigieg	21.3%
Highlands County	6,979	Harris	40.9%	Buttigieg	12.9%
Gadsden County	6,685	Harris	77.7%	Ossoff	5.5%
Walton County	5,288	Buttigieg	25.0%	Harris	21.0%
Putnam County	4,810	Harris	48.0%	Newsom	9.7%
Columbia County	4,498	Harris	49.6%	Ossoff	10.3%
Jackson County	3,500	Harris	63.6%	Ossoff	7.9%
Levy County	2,870	Harris	36.1%	Buttigieg	13.7%
Wakulla County	2,755	Harris	42.3%	Ossoff	11.5%
Suwannee County	2,424	Harris	40.7%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Hendry County	2,269	Harris	49.0%	Ossoff	10.0%
Madison County	1,859	Harris	72.4%	Ossoff	6.1%
Okeechobee County	1,852	Harris	34.9%	Buttigieg	13.9%
Bradford County	1,770	Harris	52.8%	Ossoff	9.3%
DeSoto County	1,753	Harris	49.4%	Newsom	9.7%
Jefferson County	1,656	Harris	63.6%	Ossoff	8.0%
Baker County	1,466	Harris	41.3%	Newsom	11.0%
Washington County	1,398	Harris	50.3%	Ossoff	10.9%
Taylor County	1,259	Harris	54.6%	Ossoff	8.7%
Gulf County	1,135	Harris	46.6%	Ossoff	10.4%
Hamilton County	1,038	Harris	68.8%	Ossoff	8.0%
Hardee County	967	Harris	36.6%	Ossoff	12.0%
Gilchrist County	924	Harris	24.7%	Buttigieg	19.2%
Franklin County	908	Harris	36.5%	Buttigieg	14.5%
Dixie County	747	Harris	39.3%	Buttigieg	12.8%
Holmes County	719	Harris	35.8%	Buttigieg	14.2%
Glades County	704	Harris	53.6%	Newsom	8.5%
Union County	700	Harris	55.0%	Ossoff	9.2%
Calhoun County	683	Harris	46.9%	Newsom	9.8%
Lafayette County	402	Harris	60.6%	Ossoff	8.3%
Liberty County	386	Harris	46.6%	Ossoff	10.1%

OssoffFavorite, wins 58% of runs

23.7%Ossoff's projected share