2028 forecast · Delaware · President · 3 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Delaware.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +27.2 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +34.3 and D +20.0. Projected votes: 335,949 Democratic, 192,356 Republican, 8,173 other, 536,478 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +27.22028 margin
D +15.02024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +15.0 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +30.5 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.4 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.8 toward D | 5.1% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.3 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +27.2 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 511,697 in 2024, 536,479 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Delaware| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Harris | D +28.8 | >99% |
| Buttigieg | D +28.6 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +28.1 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +28.0 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +27.6 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +27.6 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +27.6 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +27.5 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +27.4 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +27.4 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +27.4 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +27.4 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +27.4 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +27.3 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +27.2 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +27.1 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +27.1 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +27.1 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +27.0 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +27.0 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +26.9 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +26.9 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +26.8 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +26.8 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +26.7 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +26.3 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +26.2 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +26.0 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +23.3 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Delaware| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +27.5 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +27.4 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +27.3 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +27.3 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +27.3 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +27.3 | >99% |
| Vance | D +27.2 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +27.1 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +27.1 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +27.0 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +26.9 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
3 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Castle County | D +33.1 | D +49.1 | D +57 to D +41 | 207,244 | 70,670 | 282,442 | D +0.21 | Even |
| Sussex County | R +11.1 | R +2.0 | D +6 to R +10 | 77,528 | 80,669 | 160,260 | R +0.39 | D +0.90 |
| Kent County | D +2.0 | D +11.0 | D +19 to D +3 | 51,175 | 41,015 | 93,771 | D +0.18 | D +0.24 |