2028 forecast · Delaware · Democratic primary
Delaware Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 59.4% | 63,910 | 70% | 36.0% |
| Newsom | 9.9% | 10,676 | 10% | 7.7% |
| Buttigieg | 8.8% | 9,523 | 8% | 3.5% |
| Ossoff | 5.1% | 5,514 | 6% | 8.8% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 5.1% | 5,502 | 5% | 2.2% |
| Kelly | 0.4% | 455 | <1% | 4.3% |
| Shapiro | 0.2% | 215 | <1% | 4.0% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Delaware votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in DelawareBlack 32.6%, Hispanic 4.3%, Asian and other 2.9%, under 30 12.9%, 65 and up 32.7%, college graduates 44.1%, women 55%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 91,682 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 107,638 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Castle County | 64,329 | Harris | 59.6% | Newsom | 9.9% |
| Sussex County | 24,643 | Harris | 57.9% | Newsom | 10.2% |
| Kent County | 18,666 | Harris | 60.4% | Newsom | 9.7% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newsom | 26.4% | 28,463 | 31% | 12.7% |
| Ossoff | 23.1% | 24,805 | 28% | 15.4% |
| Buttigieg | 21.3% | 22,940 | 22% | 5.5% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 14.3% | 15,336 | 15% | 3.8% |
| Kelly | 2.3% | 2,453 | 3% | 7.0% |
| Shapiro | 1.1% | 1,131 | 1% | 6.6% |
| Beshear | 0.2% | 253 | <1% | 5.2% |
| Booker | 0.2% | 222 | <1% | 5.5% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Delaware votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in DelawareBlack 32.6%, Hispanic 4.3%, Asian and other 2.9%, under 30 12.9%, 65 and up 32.7%, college graduates 44.1%, women 55%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 91,682 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 107,638 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Castle County | 64,329 | Newsom | 26.4% | Ossoff | 23.2% |
| Sussex County | 24,643 | Newsom | 26.4% | Ossoff | 22.5% |
| Kent County | 18,666 | Newsom | 26.4% | Ossoff | 23.3% |