2028 forecast · District of Columbia · Democratic primary
District of Columbia Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 60.2% | 53,201 | 70% | 45.5% |
| Newsom | 9.7% | 8,595 | 10% | 5.3% |
| Buttigieg | 8.3% | 7,319 | 8% | 0.9% |
| Ossoff | 5.1% | 4,538 | 6% | 11.4% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 5.0% | 4,428 | 5% | 2.8% |
| Kelly | 0.4% | 370 | <1% | 3.7% |
| Shapiro | 0.2% | 176 | <1% | 1.9% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before District of Columbia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in District of ColumbiaBlack 37.2%, Hispanic 27.5%, Asian and other 13.8%, under 30 22.1%, 65 and up 23.3%, college graduates 32.7%, women 54.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 110,688 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 88,350 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11001 County | 88,350 | Harris | 60.2% | Newsom | 9.7% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newsom | 26.5% | 23,400 | 31% | 10.9% |
| Ossoff | 23.4% | 20,632 | 28% | 23.4% |
| Buttigieg | 20.9% | 18,482 | 21% | 1.9% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 14.3% | 12,629 | 16% | 5.8% |
| Kelly | 2.3% | 2,018 | 3% | 7.5% |
| Shapiro | 1.0% | 919 | 1% | 3.8% |
| Beshear | 0.2% | 207 | <1% | 3.5% |
| Booker | 0.2% | 183 | <1% | 4.9% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before District of Columbia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in District of ColumbiaBlack 37.2%, Hispanic 27.5%, Asian and other 13.8%, under 30 22.1%, 65 and up 23.3%, college graduates 32.7%, women 54.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 110,688 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 88,350 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11001 County | 88,350 | Newsom | 26.5% | Ossoff | 23.4% |