2028 forecast · District of Columbia · President · 3 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry District of Columbia.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +96.0 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +99.0 and D +90.3. Projected votes: 310,254 Democratic, 6,359 Republican, 8,191 other, 324,804 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +96.02028 margin
D +89.42024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +89.4 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +100.1 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.1 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.1 toward D | 5.0% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.1 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | No change | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +96.0 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 325,869 in 2024, 324,805 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
District of Columbia| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Rob SandHYP | D +97.7 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +97.6 | >99% |
| Buttigieg | D +97.5 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +97.0 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +96.9 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +96.8 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +96.7 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +96.6 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +96.6 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +96.4 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +96.3 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +96.0 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +96.0 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +96.0 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +95.9 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +95.8 | >99% |
| Harris | D +95.6 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +95.5 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +95.5 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +95.4 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +95.3 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +95.3 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +95.2 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +94.9 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +94.8 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +94.5 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +94.4 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +93.0 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +90.2 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
District of Columbia| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | D +99.7 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +98.6 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +98.6 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +98.3 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +98.1 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +98.1 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +98.0 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +97.9 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +97.7 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +97.5 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +97.3 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +96.1 | >99% |
| Vance | D +96.0 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
1 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11001 County | D +89.4 | D +96.0 | D +99 to D +90 | 310,254 | 6,359 | 324,804 | Even | Even |