2028 forecast · Colorado · President · 10 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Colorado.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +30.8 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +37.6 and D +24.0. Projected votes: 2,134,788 Democratic, 1,129,299 Republican, 82,015 other, 3,346,102 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +30.82028 margin
D +11.32024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +11.3 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +27.6 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.3 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.8 toward D | 6.2% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +30.8 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 3,190,873 in 2024, 3,346,102 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Colorado| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| PolisHYP | D +33.3 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +32.5 | >99% |
| Buttigieg | D +32.4 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +32.1 | >99% |
| Harris | D +31.9 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +31.8 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +31.7 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +31.5 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +31.4 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +31.3 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +31.2 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +31.2 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +30.9 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +30.8 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +30.8 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +30.6 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +30.6 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +30.5 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +30.4 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +30.4 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +30.3 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +30.2 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +30.1 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +30.0 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +29.9 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +29.8 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +29.4 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +29.4 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +29.4 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Colorado| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Vance | D +30.8 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +30.8 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +30.3 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +30.3 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +30.3 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +30.2 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +30.2 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +30.2 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +29.8 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +29.5 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +29.5 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +29.2 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +29.1 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
64 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso County | R +10.1 | D +11.0 | D +19 to D +3 | 218,465 | 175,337 | 404,293 | D +0.11 | D +0.14 |
| Denver County | D +57.7 | D +79.6 | D +88 to D +71 | 331,519 | 37,638 | 377,928 | D +0.16 | R +0.14 |
| Jefferson County | D +20.0 | D +40.1 | D +48 to D +32 | 248,762 | 106,475 | 364,546 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Arapahoe County | D +20.7 | D +42.7 | D +51 to D +35 | 228,591 | 91,850 | 328,927 | D +0.19 | Even |
| Douglas County | R +7.2 | D +13.5 | D +22 to D +5 | 150,374 | 114,570 | 271,199 | Even | D +0.49 |
| Adams County | D +9.3 | D +31.1 | D +39 to D +23 | 159,323 | 83,666 | 249,176 | D +0.33 | D +0.10 |
| Larimer County | D +18.1 | D +34.8 | D +43 to D +27 | 160,523 | 77,670 | 244,623 | R +0.05 | Even |
| Weld County | R +21.5 | R +2.8 | D +5 to R +11 | 97,919 | 103,650 | 206,607 | D +0.10 | D +0.93 |
| Boulder County | D +57.3 | D +76.6 | D +85 to D +68 | 174,274 | 23,101 | 202,166 | Even | R +0.07 |
| Mesa County | R +24.9 | R +7.0 | D +1 to R +15 | 43,628 | 50,165 | 95,954 | R +0.21 | D +0.38 |
| Pueblo County | R +5.3 | D +8.6 | D +17 to D +0 | 45,720 | 38,475 | 86,169 | D +0.17 | D +0.05 |
| Broomfield County | D +29.4 | D +52.1 | D +60 to D +44 | 37,182 | 11,701 | 50,174 | Even | R +0.05 |
| La Plata County | D +19.2 | D +34.5 | D +42 to D +27 | 24,124 | 11,743 | 36,793 | R +0.14 | Even |
| Garfield County | D +2.1 | D +20.0 | D +28 to D +12 | 18,314 | 12,199 | 31,233 | Even | D +0.05 |
| Eagle County | D +25.1 | D +46.3 | D +54 to D +38 | 19,457 | 7,151 | 27,243 | Even | Even |
| Montrose County | R +33.3 | R +16.7 | R +9 to R +25 | 10,605 | 14,873 | 26,006 | R +0.28 | D +0.46 |
| Fremont County | R +39.4 | R +22.8 | R +15 to R +31 | 9,700 | 15,418 | 25,704 | R +0.25 | D +0.31 |
| Elbert County | R +52.3 | R +30.5 | R +23 to R +38 | 7,964 | 14,954 | 23,406 | R +0.14 | D +1.85 |
| Delta County | R +36.5 | R +19.5 | R +12 to R +27 | 7,707 | 11,437 | 19,586 | R +0.36 | D +0.41 |
| Summit County | D +38.3 | D +59.8 | D +68 to D +52 | 13,552 | 3,408 | 17,432 | R +0.08 | R +0.07 |
| Routt County | D +28.5 | D +46.9 | D +55 to D +39 | 11,864 | 4,285 | 16,556 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Teller County | R +36.4 | R +18.1 | R +10 to R +26 | 6,392 | 9,216 | 15,975 | R +0.34 | D +0.06 |
| Montezuma County | R +21.5 | R +6.2 | D +2 to R +14 | 7,010 | 7,939 | 15,298 | R +0.23 | D +0.28 |
| Chaffee County | D +14.0 | D +32.2 | D +40 to D +24 | 9,667 | 4,953 | 14,988 | R +0.32 | D +0.12 |
| Morgan County | R +49.8 | R +33.1 | R +25 to R +41 | 4,509 | 8,982 | 13,793 | D +0.10 | D +0.26 |
| Park County | R +17.0 | D +2.3 | D +10 to R +6 | 6,095 | 5,822 | 12,253 | R +0.37 | D +0.36 |
| Gunnison County | D +30.2 | D +47.3 | D +56 to D +39 | 8,465 | 3,026 | 11,834 | Even | Even |
| Pitkin County | D +45.2 | D +63.2 | D +71 to D +55 | 8,473 | 1,913 | 10,596 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Grand County | R +0.8 | D +15.8 | D +24 to D +8 | 5,718 | 4,159 | 10,159 | R +0.18 | D +0.17 |
| Logan County | R +57.8 | R +45.0 | R +37 to R +53 | 2,692 | 7,095 | 9,983 | R +0.10 | D +0.05 |
| Archuleta County | R +14.4 | D +2.1 | D +10 to R +6 | 4,782 | 4,584 | 9,587 | R +0.38 | D +0.48 |
| Otero County | R +27.1 | R +10.9 | R +3 to R +19 | 3,723 | 4,635 | 8,561 | D +0.08 | Even |
| Alamosa County | R +11.1 | D +2.0 | D +10 to R +6 | 3,968 | 3,816 | 7,997 | D +0.48 | D +0.08 |
| Las Animas County | R +13.8 | D +1.8 | D +10 to R +7 | 3,796 | 3,664 | 7,627 | Even | Even |
| Moffat County | R +64.2 | R +44.1 | R +36 to R +52 | 1,823 | 4,699 | 6,655 | R +0.11 | D +0.05 |
| Rio Grande County | R +23.8 | R +8.6 | R +1 to R +17 | 2,673 | 3,179 | 5,985 | Even | Even |
| Clear Creek County | D +17.1 | D +37.1 | D +45 to D +29 | 3,893 | 1,786 | 5,837 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Prowers County | R +51.5 | R +35.3 | R +27 to R +44 | 1,629 | 3,410 | 5,125 | Even | D +0.12 |
| San Miguel County | D +50.7 | D +71.2 | D +80 to D +63 | 3,865 | 651 | 4,619 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Yuma County | R +66.8 | R +51.5 | R +44 to R +59 | 1,072 | 3,346 | 4,503 | R +0.09 | D +0.34 |
| Huerfano County | R +8.8 | D +1.5 | D +10 to R +6 | 2,173 | 2,108 | 4,392 | R +0.27 | D +0.26 |
| Custer County | R +37.0 | R +23.2 | R +15 to R +31 | 1,626 | 2,606 | 4,325 | R +0.41 | D +1.72 |
| Gilpin County | D +13.2 | D +32.6 | D +41 to D +25 | 2,694 | 1,370 | 4,191 | R +0.31 | D +0.08 |
| Conejos County | R +18.3 | R +2.6 | D +7 to R +12 | 1,976 | 2,082 | 4,163 | D +0.42 | D +0.11 |
| Ouray County | D +21.6 | D +37.0 | D +45 to D +29 | 2,774 | 1,276 | 4,132 | R +0.54 | Even |
| Lake County | D +17.1 | D +36.1 | D +44 to D +28 | 2,688 | 1,262 | 4,086 | D +0.19 | Even |
| Rio Blanco County | R +64.9 | R +49.1 | R +41 to R +57 | 937 | 2,746 | 3,749 | R +0.13 | D +0.26 |
| Kit Carson County | R +69.4 | R +52.7 | R +45 to R +61 | 853 | 2,753 | 3,665 | R +0.14 | D +0.13 |
| Saguache County | D +3.9 | D +18.6 | D +27 to D +11 | 1,966 | 1,350 | 3,417 | R +0.22 | D +0.22 |
| Washington County | R +76.2 | R +60.6 | R +53 to R +69 | 536 | 2,185 | 2,762 | R +0.14 | D +0.06 |
| Lincoln County | R +65.7 | R +49.9 | R +42 to R +58 | 633 | 1,897 | 2,576 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Phillips County | R +64.2 | R +47.8 | R +40 to R +56 | 576 | 1,632 | 2,252 | R +0.16 | D +0.18 |
| Bent County | R +39.7 | R +26.8 | R +19 to R +35 | 798 | 1,384 | 2,228 | Even | D +0.18 |
| Costilla County | D +15.2 | D +30.0 | D +39 to D +21 | 1,333 | 717 | 2,110 | D +0.27 | D +0.10 |
| Baca County | R +72.0 | R +58.8 | R +51 to R +67 | 381 | 1,470 | 1,887 | R +0.21 | D +0.10 |
| Crowley County | R +48.9 | R +33.3 | R +25 to R +42 | 541 | 1,083 | 1,667 | D +0.05 | Even |
| Dolores County | R +53.6 | R +36.1 | R +28 to R +44 | 444 | 948 | 1,411 | R +0.43 | D +0.92 |
| Sedgwick County | R +57.5 | R +45.9 | R +38 to R +54 | 342 | 921 | 1,287 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Cheyenne County | R +79.2 | R +63.6 | R +56 to R +72 | 183 | 823 | 1,021 | R +0.08 | D +0.13 |
| Kiowa County | R +75.9 | R +65.7 | R +58 to R +74 | 141 | 685 | 840 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Mineral County | R +13.6 | R +0.5 | D +7 to R +9 | 371 | 375 | 763 | R +0.47 | D +0.38 |
| Jackson County | R +57.1 | R +48.5 | R +41 to R +56 | 181 | 524 | 724 | R +0.36 | D +0.06 |
| San Juan County | D +33.3 | D +55.7 | D +64 to D +48 | 520 | 148 | 689 | Even | R +0.19 |
| Hinsdale County | R +12.7 | R +1.2 | D +7 to R +9 | 277 | 283 | 575 | R +0.46 | Even |