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2028 forecast · Colorado · Democratic primary

Colorado Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

ButtigiegFavorite, wins 53% of runs
27.2%Buttigieg's projected share
1,003,168Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Buttigieg27.2%272,47753%17.0%
Ocasio-Cortez18.7%187,77735%16.3%
Harris13.5%135,0581%5.0%
Newsom13.4%134,5249%10.8%
Ossoff7.9%78,8501%6.3%
Kelly3.6%36,399<1%5.3%
Shapiro3.1%31,5701%5.4%
Beshear0.7%7,162<1%2.3%
Whitmer0.7%6,489<1%0.9%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Colorado votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Ocasio-CortezButtigiegHarris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Colorado
Progressive41%
Institutional20%
Working class and union14%
Democratic leaning independents10%
Civil rights coalition9%
Moderate independents2%

Black 6.7%, Hispanic 13%, Asian and other 3.8%, under 30 14.2%, 65 and up 27.2%, college graduates 56.9%, women 54.5%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 960,128 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,003,168 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Denver County135,727Buttigieg25.8%Ocasio-Cortez21.9%
Arapahoe County115,408Buttigieg21.1%Harris19.9%
Jefferson County114,580Buttigieg32.6%Ocasio-Cortez17.7%
El Paso County113,310Buttigieg23.8%Ocasio-Cortez19.0%
Adams County77,416Ocasio-Cortez20.2%Buttigieg18.4%
Douglas County71,434Buttigieg36.0%Ocasio-Cortez18.0%
Larimer County69,573Buttigieg31.8%Ocasio-Cortez21.5%
Boulder County66,639Buttigieg34.6%Ocasio-Cortez23.3%
Weld County49,172Buttigieg23.1%Ocasio-Cortez19.0%
Pueblo County26,516Harris21.8%Buttigieg17.7%
Mesa County23,122Buttigieg27.2%Ocasio-Cortez15.6%
Broomfield County15,293Buttigieg34.7%Ocasio-Cortez19.4%
La Plata County11,008Buttigieg34.4%Ocasio-Cortez17.4%
Eagle County9,315Buttigieg31.4%Ocasio-Cortez19.1%
Garfield County9,196Buttigieg24.8%Ocasio-Cortez18.8%
Montrose County6,224Buttigieg25.5%Harris17.4%
Fremont County6,037Harris23.1%Buttigieg20.8%
Summit County5,749Buttigieg35.6%Ocasio-Cortez18.8%
Routt County5,162Buttigieg37.2%Ocasio-Cortez17.1%
Delta County4,519Buttigieg25.6%Harris18.0%
Chaffee County4,406Buttigieg33.5%Newsom13.6%
Elbert County4,363Buttigieg27.9%Ocasio-Cortez15.1%
Teller County3,887Buttigieg30.9%Harris14.6%
Montezuma County3,866Buttigieg26.6%Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
Pitkin County3,723Buttigieg41.1%Ocasio-Cortez14.6%
Gunnison County3,509Buttigieg34.8%Ocasio-Cortez25.1%
Park County3,243Buttigieg31.4%Ocasio-Cortez15.1%
Morgan County3,080Harris22.5%Buttigieg17.3%
Grand County2,816Buttigieg33.3%Ocasio-Cortez15.1%
Archuleta County2,545Buttigieg32.0%Newsom14.1%
Otero County2,410Harris22.0%Buttigieg17.5%
Alamosa County2,328Ocasio-Cortez23.5%Buttigieg18.5%
Las Animas County2,265Harris22.1%Buttigieg16.9%
Logan County2,101Harris22.7%Buttigieg19.3%
Clear Creek County1,882Buttigieg40.2%Ocasio-Cortez13.8%
Rio Grande County1,738Buttigieg22.8%Harris17.6%
San Miguel County1,625Buttigieg41.9%Ocasio-Cortez14.6%
Gilpin County1,301Buttigieg34.6%Newsom13.9%
Ouray County1,274Buttigieg40.0%Newsom13.2%
Conejos County1,273Harris20.5%Buttigieg16.6%
Lake County1,261Buttigieg28.9%Ocasio-Cortez23.3%
Huerfano County1,256Buttigieg23.6%Harris19.2%
Moffat County1,229Buttigieg23.6%Harris17.4%
Prowers County1,134Harris19.7%Buttigieg19.3%
Saguache County1,059Buttigieg23.3%Harris17.5%
Custer County905Buttigieg36.1%Newsom13.3%
Yuma County878Buttigieg24.0%Harris17.6%
Costilla County774Harris25.4%Newsom14.8%
Rio Blanco County667Buttigieg25.9%Harris15.5%
Kit Carson County647Buttigieg23.6%Harris18.4%
Bent County537Harris24.9%Buttigieg17.2%
Lincoln County524Harris23.9%Buttigieg18.6%
Washington County462Buttigieg24.8%Harris18.5%
Phillips County456Buttigieg26.0%Harris16.6%
Crowley County407Harris31.4%Buttigieg12.7%
Baca County339Buttigieg26.0%Harris18.4%
Dolores County286Buttigieg29.4%Harris17.2%
Sedgwick County276Buttigieg23.6%Harris18.6%
Mineral County205Buttigieg37.8%Newsom13.4%
San Juan County189Buttigieg29.4%Ocasio-Cortez22.9%
Cheyenne County174Buttigieg23.6%Harris20.0%
Jackson County169Buttigieg27.6%Harris18.5%
Hinsdale County161Buttigieg38.1%Newsom12.9%
Kiowa County138Buttigieg24.6%Harris18.2%