2028 forecast · California · Democratic primary

California Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

NewsomFavorite, wins 49% of runs

20.0%Newsom's projected share

5,939,140Projected primary votes

2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Newsom	20.0%	1,185,790	49%	22.2%
Harris	18.8%	1,118,004	11%	10.2%
Buttigieg	17.8%	1,058,317	12%	8.9%
Ocasio-Cortez	16.2%	961,075	24%	13.5%
Ossoff	8.8%	522,406	3%	7.9%
Kelly	3.5%	206,012	<1%	5.0%
Shapiro	2.5%	150,442	<1%	3.8%
Beshear	0.6%	35,651	<1%	1.7%
Whitmer	0.6%	34,101	<1%	0.7%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before California votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

NewsomButtigiegHarrisOcasio-Cortez

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in California

Progressive39%

Institutional20%

Working class and union16%

Democratic leaning independents11%

Civil rights coalition9%

Moderate independents2%

Black 11.8%, Hispanic 26.3%, Asian and other 11.4%, under 30 12.8%, 65 and up 29.6%, college graduates 50.5%, women 54.4%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 5,784,364 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 5,939,140 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Los Angeles County	1,579,141	Harris	22.5%	Newsom	20.1%
San Diego County	537,847	Newsom	21.0%	Buttigieg	20.8%
Orange County	469,009	Buttigieg	24.2%	Newsom	21.5%
Riverside County	347,331	Harris	26.1%	Newsom	19.3%
San Bernardino County	294,308	Harris	30.1%	Newsom	17.6%
Santa Clara County	274,600	Buttigieg	27.4%	Newsom	19.7%
Alameda County	270,401	Newsom	19.7%	Buttigieg	19.0%
Sacramento County	242,484	Harris	23.1%	Newsom	19.6%
Contra Costa County	207,685	Newsom	20.4%	Buttigieg	18.6%
San Francisco County	150,211	Buttigieg	29.3%	Newsom	19.7%
Ventura County	139,787	Newsom	20.9%	Buttigieg	19.3%
San Mateo County	122,462	Buttigieg	28.0%	Newsom	20.9%
Fresno County	116,642	Harris	22.0%	Newsom	20.3%
San Joaquin County	94,669	Harris	26.1%	Newsom	18.1%
Kern County	93,397	Harris	26.1%	Newsom	19.3%
Sonoma County	90,501	Buttigieg	23.8%	Newsom	20.4%
Solano County	75,541	Harris	34.8%	Newsom	16.6%
Placer County	70,450	Buttigieg	27.0%	Newsom	19.9%
Santa Barbara County	68,662	Newsom	20.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	19.8%
Stanislaus County	64,066	Harris	21.5%	Newsom	20.3%
Monterey County	58,580	Newsom	20.7%	Ocasio-Cortez	20.0%
Marin County	53,485	Buttigieg	33.7%	Newsom	19.8%
Santa Cruz County	49,725	Ocasio-Cortez	23.9%	Buttigieg	23.3%
San Luis Obispo County	49,114	Buttigieg	23.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	20.3%
Tulare County	45,055	Harris	21.4%	Newsom	20.5%
Yolo County	34,167	Ocasio-Cortez	31.7%	Buttigieg	19.1%
El Dorado County	32,447	Buttigieg	27.8%	Newsom	20.1%
Merced County	31,058	Harris	24.5%	Newsom	19.2%
Butte County	28,409	Buttigieg	23.5%	Newsom	19.7%
Napa County	23,999	Buttigieg	23.6%	Newsom	22.0%
Imperial County	23,661	Harris	29.2%	Newsom	18.2%
Shasta County	21,478	Buttigieg	23.8%	Newsom	19.7%
Humboldt County	20,918	Buttigieg	24.2%	Ocasio-Cortez	19.5%
Nevada County	19,409	Buttigieg	30.6%	Newsom	19.6%
Madera County	17,568	Harris	22.3%	Newsom	20.5%
Kings County	13,889	Harris	32.6%	Newsom	17.1%
Mendocino County	12,915	Buttigieg	22.1%	Newsom	20.0%
Sutter County	10,589	Newsom	20.4%	Buttigieg	18.5%
San Benito County	10,579	Ocasio-Cortez	20.8%	Newsom	20.0%
Yuba County	8,547	Harris	21.6%	Newsom	18.0%
Lake County	8,004	Harris	19.6%	Buttigieg	19.5%
Tuolumne County	7,755	Buttigieg	22.3%	Newsom	19.6%
Calaveras County	6,839	Buttigieg	22.8%	Newsom	19.6%
Tehama County	6,322	Buttigieg	21.6%	Newsom	20.6%
Amador County	5,902	Buttigieg	21.4%	Newsom	20.1%
Siskiyou County	5,780	Buttigieg	22.8%	Newsom	19.4%
Del Norte County	2,999	Buttigieg	19.5%	Newsom	19.2%
Plumas County	2,723	Buttigieg	22.6%	Newsom	19.1%
Glenn County	2,721	Newsom	20.3%	Harris	18.5%
Inyo County	2,699	Buttigieg	25.1%	Newsom	20.1%
Lassen County	2,689	Harris	29.8%	Newsom	16.6%
Mariposa County	2,607	Buttigieg	25.8%	Newsom	20.0%
Colusa County	2,164	Harris	23.5%	Newsom	20.2%
Mono County	1,996	Buttigieg	25.4%	Newsom	19.2%
Trinity County	1,563	Buttigieg	23.2%	Newsom	19.0%
Modoc County	900	Buttigieg	24.4%	Newsom	19.8%
Sierra County	451	Buttigieg	26.0%	Newsom	19.6%
Alpine County	240	Buttigieg	29.8%	Ocasio-Cortez	20.0%

NewsomFavorite, wins 57% of runs

25.5%Newsom's projected share