2028 forecast · California · President · 54 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry California.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +37.3 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +44.5 and D +30.1. Projected votes: 10,558,718 Democratic, 4,820,450 Republican, 408,886 other, 15,788,054 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +37.32028 margin
D +20.82024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +20.8 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +33.5 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | No change | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 1.1 toward D | 5.6% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | No change | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +37.3 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 15,862,536 in 2024, 15,788,054 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
California| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Harris | D +40.2 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +39.6 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +39.5 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +38.8 | >99% |
| Buttigieg | D +38.7 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +38.4 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +38.3 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +38.2 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +38.2 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +38.2 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +37.8 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +37.8 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +37.5 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +37.5 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +37.5 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +37.3 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +37.3 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +37.2 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +37.1 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +37.1 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +37.0 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +36.9 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +36.8 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +36.7 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +36.6 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +36.4 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +36.4 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +35.9 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +35.8 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
California| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Vance | D +37.3 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +37.2 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +37.2 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +36.8 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +36.6 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +36.5 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +36.5 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +36.4 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +36.3 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +36.2 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +36.1 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +35.5 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +34.7 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
58 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles County | D +34.0 | D +54.6 | D +63 to D +46 | 2,725,592 | 800,153 | 3,620,191 | D +0.57 | Even |
| San Diego County | D +17.3 | D +31.9 | D +40 to D +24 | 959,328 | 495,775 | 1,491,922 | D +0.36 | Even |
| Orange County | D +2.7 | D +17.4 | D +26 to D +9 | 786,902 | 553,427 | 1,376,176 | D +0.43 | Even |
| Riverside County | R +1.3 | D +14.3 | D +23 to D +6 | 550,796 | 413,170 | 986,316 | D +0.49 | D +0.19 |
| San Bernardino County | R +2.2 | D +17.5 | D +26 to D +9 | 450,528 | 316,257 | 785,430 | D +0.71 | Even |
| Santa Clara County | D +41.5 | D +60.4 | D +69 to D +52 | 564,968 | 139,437 | 725,831 | D +0.52 | R +0.12 |
| Sacramento County | D +20.4 | D +33.9 | D +42 to D +26 | 431,776 | 213,172 | 663,790 | D +0.35 | Even |
| Alameda County | D +56.0 | D +78.4 | D +87 to D +70 | 556,238 | 67,413 | 644,601 | D +0.39 | R +0.14 |
| Contra Costa County | D +39.3 | D +56.7 | D +65 to D +49 | 399,288 | 110,352 | 523,580 | D +0.30 | R +0.05 |
| Ventura County | D +15.6 | D +28.6 | D +37 to D +20 | 241,185 | 133,984 | 384,638 | D +0.28 | Even |
| San Francisco County | D +67.6 | D +90.9 | D +99 to D +83 | 350,779 | 16,665 | 379,027 | D +0.23 | R +0.16 |
| Fresno County | R +4.5 | D +13.4 | D +22 to D +5 | 186,365 | 142,244 | 336,113 | D +0.62 | D +0.07 |
| San Mateo County | D +52.1 | D +70.7 | D +79 to D +63 | 261,707 | 44,980 | 314,879 | D +0.29 | R +0.13 |
| Kern County | R +21.6 | R +4.8 | D +4 to R +14 | 136,374 | 150,269 | 293,227 | D +0.54 | D +0.09 |
| San Joaquin County | R +0.9 | D +18.2 | D +26 to D +10 | 158,808 | 109,936 | 275,639 | D +0.61 | D +0.17 |
| Placer County | R +8.8 | D +1.8 | D +10 to R +6 | 124,067 | 119,681 | 250,049 | R +0.08 | D +0.45 |
| Sonoma County | D +47.8 | D +60.7 | D +69 to D +53 | 194,324 | 47,487 | 248,595 | Even | Even |
| Stanislaus County | R +11.3 | D +4.9 | D +13 to R +4 | 102,875 | 93,237 | 200,725 | D +0.38 | Even |
| Solano County | D +23.7 | D +38.1 | D +46 to D +30 | 127,608 | 57,229 | 189,509 | D +0.44 | Even |
| Santa Barbara County | D +27.5 | D +38.9 | D +47 to D +31 | 127,130 | 55,869 | 187,844 | D +0.38 | Even |
| San Luis Obispo County | D +11.2 | D +20.5 | D +28 to D +13 | 90,724 | 59,864 | 154,579 | Even | Even |
| Monterey County | D +30.8 | D +48.3 | D +57 to D +40 | 105,542 | 36,784 | 145,993 | D +0.48 | Even |
| Tulare County | R +21.2 | R +2.8 | D +6 to R +12 | 68,513 | 72,502 | 144,034 | D +0.58 | D +0.14 |
| Marin County | D +65.7 | D +81.0 | D +89 to D +73 | 120,434 | 12,670 | 136,195 | R +0.09 | R +0.10 |
| Santa Cruz County | D +56.6 | D +70.9 | D +79 to D +63 | 109,752 | 18,711 | 132,487 | D +0.12 | Even |
| El Dorado County | R +12.3 | R +2.1 | D +6 to R +10 | 52,888 | 55,139 | 110,717 | R +0.26 | D +0.07 |
| Yolo County | D +37.6 | D +50.8 | D +59 to D +43 | 72,630 | 23,697 | 99,166 | D +0.48 | R +0.06 |
| Butte County | R +3.2 | D +6.6 | D +14 to R +1 | 49,943 | 43,774 | 96,427 | Even | Even |
| Merced County | R +4.5 | D +14.1 | D +24 to D +5 | 51,283 | 38,614 | 91,986 | D +0.74 | D +0.19 |
| Shasta County | R +37.4 | R +30.2 | R +22 to R +38 | 29,959 | 55,870 | 87,805 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Napa County | D +36.0 | D +48.2 | D +56 to D +40 | 45,673 | 15,945 | 63,204 | D +0.07 | Even |
| Humboldt County | D +29.7 | D +39.2 | D +47 to D +31 | 42,655 | 18,627 | 63,529 | R +0.10 | Even |
| Nevada County | D +12.7 | D +20.4 | D +28 to D +13 | 35,203 | 23,293 | 60,216 | R +0.43 | Even |
| Madera County | R +21.3 | R +5.7 | D +3 to R +15 | 27,096 | 30,342 | 58,688 | D +0.45 | D +0.51 |
| Imperial County | R +0.9 | D +25.4 | D +38 to D +13 | 33,412 | 19,858 | 54,480 | D +0.90 | Even |
| Kings County | R +23.5 | R +6.7 | D +2 to R +15 | 19,635 | 22,455 | 42,981 | D +0.57 | Even |
| Sutter County | R +32.2 | R +16.3 | R +8 to R +24 | 15,895 | 22,095 | 38,834 | D +0.28 | D +0.13 |
| Mendocino County | D +28.0 | D +37.8 | D +46 to D +30 | 24,686 | 11,141 | 37,055 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Yuba County | R +26.6 | R +16.0 | R +8 to R +24 | 13,400 | 18,500 | 32,728 | D +0.17 | D +0.64 |
| San Benito County | D +12.9 | D +31.5 | D +41 to D +22 | 19,376 | 10,098 | 30,193 | D +0.55 | D +0.15 |
| Tuolumne County | R +22.4 | R +16.5 | R +9 to R +24 | 11,098 | 15,477 | 27,170 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Calaveras County | R +28.8 | R +22.4 | R +14 to R +30 | 9,927 | 15,652 | 26,177 | R +0.40 | D +0.37 |
| Tehama County | R +42.8 | R +33.6 | R +26 to R +42 | 8,413 | 16,925 | 25,887 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Lake County | R +1.4 | D +6.8 | D +15 to R +1 | 13,448 | 11,733 | 25,859 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Amador County | R +28.6 | R +21.9 | R +14 to R +30 | 8,517 | 13,294 | 22,338 | R +0.33 | D +0.38 |
| Siskiyou County | R +19.9 | R +15.0 | R +7 to R +23 | 8,293 | 11,212 | 20,053 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Glenn County | R +35.9 | R +25.6 | R +17 to R +34 | 3,712 | 6,262 | 10,208 | D +0.06 | D +0.06 |
| Lassen County | R +55.3 | R +46.9 | R +39 to R +55 | 2,634 | 7,287 | 10,137 | Even | D +0.05 |
| Del Norte County | R +16.9 | R +10.4 | R +2 to R +18 | 4,393 | 5,409 | 10,056 | R +0.14 | Even |
| Plumas County | R +17.5 | R +14.2 | R +6 to R +22 | 3,829 | 5,093 | 9,162 | R +0.51 | Even |
| Mariposa County | R +21.7 | R +16.3 | R +9 to R +24 | 3,695 | 5,130 | 9,042 | R +0.38 | D +0.05 |
| Inyo County | R +3.1 | D +3.4 | D +11 to R +4 | 4,260 | 3,976 | 8,462 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Colusa County | R +29.0 | R +12.9 | R +4 to R +22 | 3,001 | 3,892 | 7,049 | D +0.40 | Even |
| Mono County | D +21.1 | D +31.7 | D +40 to D +24 | 3,639 | 1,887 | 5,711 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Trinity County | R +9.8 | R +6.2 | D +2 to R +14 | 2,377 | 2,690 | 5,234 | R +0.55 | Even |
| Modoc County | R +48.2 | R +43.9 | R +36 to R +52 | 1,023 | 2,628 | 3,742 | R +0.37 | D +0.10 |
| Sierra County | R +24.9 | R +21.2 | R +13 to R +29 | 625 | 961 | 1,626 | R +0.56 | Even |
| Alpine County | D +32.7 | D +41.1 | D +49 to D +33 | 467 | 195 | 676 | Even | Even |