2028 forecast · Arizona · Democratic primary
Arizona Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 19.2% | 136,348 | 10% | 8.0% |
| Buttigieg | 18.3% | 129,454 | 15% | 7.6% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 17.0% | 120,553 | 32% | 12.5% |
| Newsom | 15.3% | 108,309 | 21% | 10.5% |
| Ossoff | 9.2% | 65,077 | 4% | 7.5% |
| Kelly | 6.2% | 44,055 | 18% | 14.3% |
| Shapiro | 2.7% | 19,240 | 1% | 4.7% |
| Beshear | 0.6% | 4,409 | <1% | 2.4% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Arizona votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in ArizonaBlack 9%, Hispanic 18.2%, Asian and other 5.2%, under 30 13.9%, 65 and up 32%, college graduates 45.4%, women 54.9%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 613,355 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 708,706 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | 444,640 | Harris | 19.2% | Buttigieg | 18.3% |
| Pima County | 118,258 | Buttigieg | 18.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.1% |
| Pinal County | 39,632 | Harris | 26.3% | Buttigieg | 15.2% |
| Yavapai County | 23,785 | Buttigieg | 23.3% | Harris | 18.8% |
| Coconino County | 14,803 | Ocasio-Cortez | 35.1% | Buttigieg | 19.9% |
| Mohave County | 14,103 | Harris | 23.6% | Buttigieg | 18.4% |
| Yuma County | 14,049 | Harris | 24.7% | Newsom | 15.5% |
| Cochise County | 11,200 | Harris | 21.5% | Buttigieg | 16.9% |
| Navajo County | 8,653 | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.2% | Buttigieg | 18.8% |
| Apache County | 5,908 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.2% | Buttigieg | 18.5% |
| Santa Cruz County | 5,574 | Harris | 21.4% | Newsom | 16.3% |
| Gila County | 4,186 | Harris | 20.4% | Buttigieg | 19.2% |
| Graham County | 2,253 | Harris | 20.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.1% |
| La Paz County | 1,103 | Harris | 26.2% | Buttigieg | 16.9% |
| Greenlee County | 559 | Harris | 20.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.3% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocasio-Cortez | 19.3% | 136,424 | 32% | 13.6% |
| Buttigieg | 18.5% | 131,392 | 13% | 8.3% |
| Newsom | 18.4% | 130,183 | 21% | 11.5% |
| Ossoff | 14.1% | 100,189 | 5% | 8.2% |
| Kelly | 10.9% | 77,270 | 28% | 15.8% |
| Shapiro | 4.5% | 31,843 | 1% | 5.2% |
| Beshear | 1.6% | 11,459 | <1% | 2.7% |
| Booker | 0.8% | 6,023 | <1% | 2.1% |
| Whitmer | 0.4% | 2,980 | <1% | 1.0% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Arizona votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in ArizonaBlack 9%, Hispanic 18.2%, Asian and other 5.2%, under 30 13.9%, 65 and up 32%, college graduates 45.4%, women 54.9%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 613,355 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 708,706 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | 444,640 | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.6% | Buttigieg | 18.7% |
| Pima County | 118,258 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.1% | Buttigieg | 18.6% |
| Pinal County | 39,632 | Newsom | 19.0% | Buttigieg | 16.6% |
| Yavapai County | 23,785 | Buttigieg | 23.7% | Newsom | 18.6% |
| Coconino County | 14,803 | Ocasio-Cortez | 38.6% | Buttigieg | 18.0% |
| Mohave County | 14,103 | Buttigieg | 19.3% | Newsom | 18.1% |
| Yuma County | 14,049 | Newsom | 19.6% | Kelly | 17.5% |
| Cochise County | 11,200 | Newsom | 18.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.7% |
| Navajo County | 8,653 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.2% | Buttigieg | 18.4% |
| Apache County | 5,908 | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.2% | Buttigieg | 17.9% |
| Santa Cruz County | 5,574 | Newsom | 19.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.1% |
| Gila County | 4,186 | Buttigieg | 19.4% | Newsom | 17.6% |
| Graham County | 2,253 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.8% | Newsom | 16.4% |
| La Paz County | 1,103 | Kelly | 19.3% | Newsom | 18.3% |
| Greenlee County | 559 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.8% | Newsom | 17.5% |