2028 forecast · Arizona · President · 11 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Arizona.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +5.5 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +11.0 and Even. Projected votes: 1,863,523 Democratic, 1,668,079 Republican, 46,491 other, 3,578,093 in all.
90%Democratic win chance
D +5.52028 margin
R +5.62024 actual
9%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +5.6 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +2.6 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.3 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 1.0 toward D | 6.0% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.3 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +5.5 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 3,389,319 in 2024, 3,578,095 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Arizona| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| KellyHYP | D +8.8 | 98% |
| GallegoHYP | D +8.1 | 97% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +7.0 | 95% |
| Ossoff | D +7.0 | 95% |
| Buttigieg | D +6.9 | 94% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +6.6 | 94% |
| CooperHYP | D +6.5 | 93% |
| Harris | D +6.4 | 93% |
| Cuban | D +6.4 | 93% |
| BookerHYP | D +5.9 | 92% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +5.8 | 91% |
| KhannaHYP | D +5.7 | 91% |
| BrownHYP | D +5.6 | 90% |
| PolisHYP | D +5.6 | 90% |
| Generic Democrat | D +5.5 | 90% |
| MurphyHYP | D +5.5 | 90% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +5.5 | 90% |
| WalzHYP | D +5.4 | 90% |
| CrockettHYP | D +5.4 | 90% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +5.4 | 90% |
| Shapiro | D +5.3 | 89% |
| BeshearHYP | D +5.1 | 88% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +5.0 | 88% |
| WarnockHYP | D +4.9 | 87% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +4.8 | 87% |
| Newsom | D +4.5 | 85% |
| MooreHYP | D +4.4 | 85% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +4.3 | 84% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +3.4 | 78% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Arizona| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | D +5.8 | 91% |
| Vance | D +5.5 | 90% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +5.5 | 90% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +5.4 | 89% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +5.4 | 89% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +5.3 | 89% |
| KempHYP | D +5.3 | 89% |
| CruzHYP | D +5.2 | 88% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +5.1 | 88% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +5.1 | 88% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +4.9 | 87% |
| HaleyHYP | D +4.7 | 86% |
| Rubio | D +4.1 | 83% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
15 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | R +3.5 | D +8.5 | D +15 to D +2 | 1,161,099 | 978,337 | 2,168,088 | D +0.20 | D +0.20 |
| Pima County | D +15.3 | D +25.9 | D +32 to D +20 | 330,036 | 194,276 | 531,549 | D +0.21 | Even |
| Pinal County | R +22.3 | R +11.7 | R +5 to R +18 | 109,641 | 138,598 | 251,235 | Even | D +1.66 |
| Yavapai County | R +34.2 | R +27.5 | R +21 to R +34 | 54,638 | 96,103 | 152,507 | R +0.40 | D +0.77 |
| Mohave County | R +56.1 | R +49.2 | R +42 to R +56 | 28,196 | 82,881 | 112,123 | R +0.34 | D +1.09 |
| Coconino County | D +20.2 | D +31.4 | D +38 to D +25 | 48,200 | 25,140 | 74,545 | D +0.48 | Even |
| Yuma County | R +20.6 | R +6.8 | D +1 to R +15 | 33,054 | 37,897 | 71,807 | D +0.46 | D +0.57 |
| Cochise County | R +23.4 | R +14.1 | R +8 to R +20 | 24,882 | 33,017 | 58,747 | Even | D +0.12 |
| Navajo County | R +17.4 | R +9.1 | R +3 to R +16 | 23,442 | 28,115 | 52,186 | D +0.34 | D +0.23 |
| Apache County | D +19.2 | D +29.2 | D +36 to D +22 | 20,470 | 11,226 | 32,120 | D +0.90 | Even |
| Gila County | R +37.9 | R +32.8 | R +26 to R +39 | 9,007 | 17,786 | 27,098 | R +0.22 | D +0.28 |
| Santa Cruz County | D +18.8 | D +31.7 | D +42 to D +21 | 12,785 | 6,634 | 19,626 | D +0.82 | Even |
| Graham County | R +48.6 | R +39.3 | R +33 to R +46 | 4,833 | 11,105 | 16,129 | D +0.19 | D +0.45 |
| La Paz County | R +44.5 | R +40.1 | R +33 to R +47 | 2,091 | 4,891 | 7,052 | R +0.37 | D +0.35 |
| Greenlee County | R +41.5 | R +28.8 | R +22 to R +36 | 1,141 | 2,066 | 3,259 | D +0.28 | D +0.08 |