2026 midterms Results are inFinal forecastSenate D 81%House D 91%Governors D 91%How the forecast did
Search
The Weighting Room
FINAL · RESULTS VS FORECAST
TX GovHinojosa D +7.0forecast R +0.2SC SenAndrews D +4.5forecast D +1.1FL GovDonalds R +1.3forecast R +1.6NE SenRicketts R +6.5forecast I +2.0NE GovPillen R +8.2forecast R +3.6TX SenTalarico D +9.7forecast D +3.7FL SenMoody R +2.9forecast R +3.7IA SenTurek D +4.2forecast D +3.7KS GovHolscher leads D +0.5forecast D +3.8GA GovBottoms D +8.6forecast D +3.9KS SenHamilton D +5.0forecast D +5.0AK SenSullivan leads R +0.9forecast D +5.1OH GovActon D +7.2forecast D +5.7ME SenJackson D +8.1forecast D +5.7NV GovFord D +7.2forecast D +6.1WI GovCrowley D +8.4forecast D +6.5OH SenBrown D +4.2forecast D +6.7MI SenEl-Sayed D +6.6forecast D +8.8

2028 forecast · Arkansas · Democratic primary

Arkansas Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 91% of runs
34.8%Harris's projected share
254,879Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Harris34.8%88,72091%24.5%
Buttigieg18.4%46,8405%10.6%
Newsom10.3%26,2211%7.7%
Ocasio-Cortez8.9%22,652<1%5.3%
Ossoff8.0%20,2611%5.3%
Kelly4.0%10,2951%6.3%
Shapiro2.7%6,867<1%4.5%
Beshear1.1%2,750<1%4.7%
Whitmer0.6%1,474<1%0.8%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Arkansas votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
HarrisButtigieg

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Arkansas
Progressive33%
Working class and union18%
Institutional16%
Democratic leaning independents15%
Civil rights coalition7%
Moderate independents4%

Black 22%, Hispanic 3.6%, Asian and other 3%, under 30 12.5%, 65 and up 32.4%, college graduates 37.3%, women 54.6%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 229,122 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 254,879 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Pulaski County50,609Harris52.5%Ossoff9.6%
Benton County26,327Buttigieg32.0%Ocasio-Cortez14.4%
Washington County21,982Buttigieg29.1%Ocasio-Cortez18.6%
Faulkner County11,467Buttigieg22.8%Harris21.3%
Saline County11,178Harris24.9%Buttigieg23.4%
Sebastian County8,714Buttigieg23.9%Harris22.4%
Jefferson County8,230Harris76.0%Ossoff5.3%
Garland County8,136Harris24.6%Buttigieg24.2%
Craighead County7,662Harris26.3%Buttigieg20.7%
Lonoke County5,142Buttigieg23.3%Harris22.6%
Crittenden County5,016Harris72.3%Ossoff6.3%
White County4,665Buttigieg25.4%Harris20.4%
Pope County3,975Buttigieg27.9%Harris17.3%
Union County3,914Harris59.1%Ossoff8.2%
Crawford County3,630Buttigieg27.1%Harris18.7%
Miller County3,243Harris50.8%Ossoff9.0%
Baxter County3,114Buttigieg28.2%Harris19.8%
Mississippi County2,715Harris60.0%Ossoff8.3%
Ouachita County2,523Harris68.0%Ossoff6.7%
Boone County2,367Buttigieg27.0%Harris19.4%
Greene County2,313Buttigieg26.0%Harris19.7%
Hot Spring County2,172Harris32.1%Buttigieg17.6%
Carroll County2,147Buttigieg27.5%Harris18.5%
Independence County2,109Buttigieg26.2%Harris19.8%
St. Francis County2,108Harris74.6%Ossoff6.2%
Columbia County2,012Harris56.3%Ossoff10.0%
Phillips County1,943Harris79.5%Ossoff4.0%
Clark County1,916Harris38.7%Ossoff13.4%
Cleburne County1,708Buttigieg27.7%Harris19.9%
Conway County1,671Harris31.6%Buttigieg17.9%
Drew County1,502Harris44.1%Buttigieg11.0%
Hempstead County1,487Harris59.2%Ossoff7.8%
Ashley County1,479Harris53.5%Ossoff8.3%
Johnson County1,471Buttigieg25.2%Harris19.6%
Cross County1,275Harris40.2%Buttigieg12.9%
Chicot County1,274Harris76.0%Ossoff5.0%
Arkansas County1,190Harris51.8%Buttigieg8.4%
Desha County1,187Harris74.5%Ossoff5.3%
Logan County1,182Buttigieg26.1%Harris20.3%
Grant County1,124Buttigieg27.1%Harris19.3%
Marion County1,122Buttigieg25.7%Harris21.3%
Madison County1,099Buttigieg24.7%Harris20.1%
Van Buren County1,098Buttigieg25.0%Harris21.7%
Polk County1,087Buttigieg26.8%Harris19.5%
Sharp County1,037Buttigieg25.6%Harris21.2%
Poinsett County1,031Harris26.1%Buttigieg20.7%
Franklin County981Buttigieg25.7%Harris20.2%
Yell County980Buttigieg23.7%Harris21.8%
Howard County942Harris48.9%Ossoff9.6%
Little River County938Harris45.3%Buttigieg11.0%
Randolph County926Buttigieg23.6%Harris22.4%
Jackson County881Harris35.6%Buttigieg15.2%
Lee County876Harris76.0%Ossoff5.1%
Stone County848Buttigieg26.7%Harris20.4%
Izard County828Buttigieg27.3%Harris20.2%
Lawrence County790Buttigieg26.1%Harris19.7%
Bradley County782Harris59.7%Ossoff7.8%
Sevier County753Harris28.7%Buttigieg16.4%
Lincoln County738Harris57.0%Ossoff8.9%
Fulton County714Buttigieg26.9%Harris20.6%
Monroe County713Harris68.7%Ossoff6.8%
Clay County702Buttigieg27.3%Harris19.5%
Perry County700Buttigieg23.8%Harris22.8%
Nevada County698Harris61.1%Ossoff8.3%
Dallas County654Harris72.5%Ossoff5.4%
Pike County587Buttigieg24.4%Harris21.3%
Lafayette County580Harris68.7%Ossoff5.9%
Woodruff County546Harris55.2%Ossoff7.6%
Cleveland County536Harris34.7%Buttigieg16.6%
Montgomery County524Buttigieg26.3%Harris20.8%
Newton County520Buttigieg25.7%Harris19.9%
Prairie County494Harris30.9%Buttigieg19.1%
Searcy County492Buttigieg26.7%Harris20.1%
Scott County428Buttigieg24.8%Harris21.2%
Calhoun County375Harris44.8%Buttigieg11.5%