2028 forecast · Arkansas · President · 6 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry Arkansas.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +20.0 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +13.4 and R +26.6. Projected votes: 476,871 Democratic, 715,259 Republican, 25,450 other, 1,217,580 in all.
<1%Democratic win chance
R +20.02028 margin
R +31.32024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +31.3 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +16.2 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.5 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.6 toward D | 5.1% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.4 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +20.0 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 1,182,676 in 2024, 1,217,581 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Arkansas| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| BeshearHYP | R +18.2 | <1% |
| Buttigieg | R +18.6 | <1% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +18.9 | <1% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +18.9 | <1% |
| CooperHYP | R +19.0 | <1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +19.3 | <1% |
| WalzHYP | R +19.4 | <1% |
| BookerHYP | R +19.5 | <1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +19.6 | <1% |
| Cuban | R +19.6 | <1% |
| KellyHYP | R +19.7 | <1% |
| BrownHYP | R +19.8 | <1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +20.0 | <1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +20.0 | <1% |
| Ossoff | R +20.0 | <1% |
| Harris | R +20.1 | <1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +20.3 | <1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +20.3 | <1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +20.4 | <1% |
| PolisHYP | R +20.4 | <1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +20.5 | <1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +20.8 | <1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +20.9 | <1% |
| Shapiro | R +21.0 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +21.1 | <1% |
| MooreHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +21.4 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +23.2 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +25.5 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Arkansas| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | R +16.1 | <1% |
| HaleyHYP | R +16.5 | <1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +17.8 | <1% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +17.9 | <1% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +18.0 | <1% |
| KempHYP | R +18.2 | <1% |
| Rubio | R +18.3 | <1% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +18.5 | <1% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +18.6 | <1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +18.8 | <1% |
| CruzHYP | R +19.1 | <1% |
| Vance | R +20.0 | <1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +20.0 | <1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
75 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulaski County | D +22.7 | D +42.5 | D +50 to D +35 | 108,365 | 43,676 | 155,511 | D +0.20 | Even |
| Benton County | R +27.7 | R +13.7 | R +6 to R +21 | 61,668 | 81,302 | 146,515 | Even | D +1.19 |
| Washington County | R +6.9 | D +3.6 | D +11 to R +4 | 54,528 | 50,686 | 108,217 | D +0.12 | D +0.41 |
| Saline County | R +41.0 | R +31.3 | R +24 to R +39 | 20,426 | 38,995 | 60,669 | R +0.26 | D +0.81 |
| Faulkner County | R +33.1 | R +23.1 | R +15 to R +31 | 22,653 | 36,262 | 60,298 | R +0.05 | D +0.70 |
| Sebastian County | R +38.5 | R +31.0 | R +23 to R +39 | 15,531 | 29,508 | 46,067 | R +0.17 | D +0.24 |
| Garland County | R +37.1 | R +30.4 | R +23 to R +38 | 13,962 | 26,146 | 40,955 | R +0.41 | D +0.08 |
| Craighead County | R +38.3 | R +28.8 | R +21 to R +37 | 13,710 | 24,819 | 39,375 | R +0.12 | D +0.49 |
| White County | R +62.6 | R +55.7 | R +48 to R +64 | 6,957 | 24,430 | 32,030 | R +0.22 | D +0.63 |
| Lonoke County | R +54.8 | R +44.2 | R +37 to R +52 | 8,656 | 22,383 | 31,656 | R +0.20 | D +0.45 |
| Pope County | R +53.5 | R +46.6 | R +39 to R +54 | 6,510 | 17,886 | 24,932 | R +0.22 | D +0.34 |
| Crawford County | R +59.3 | R +50.7 | R +43 to R +59 | 5,892 | 18,022 | 24,365 | R +0.24 | D +0.59 |
| Baxter County | R +57.8 | R +52.9 | R +45 to R +61 | 4,761 | 15,459 | 20,568 | R +0.45 | D +0.70 |
| Jefferson County | D +20.4 | D +38.5 | D +47 to D +30 | 13,929 | 6,188 | 20,438 | D +0.40 | Even |
| Boone County | R +66.1 | R +58.5 | R +50 to R +67 | 3,532 | 13,491 | 17,319 | R +0.30 | D +0.63 |
| Greene County | R +62.3 | R +54.0 | R +46 to R +62 | 3,671 | 12,304 | 16,252 | R +0.27 | D +0.57 |
| Miller County | R +51.7 | R +40.4 | R +32 to R +49 | 4,615 | 10,877 | 15,699 | R +0.10 | Even |
| Union County | R +34.0 | R +19.2 | R +11 to R +27 | 5,803 | 8,561 | 14,592 | Even | Even |
| Crittenden County | D +2.3 | D +21.0 | D +29 to D +13 | 8,429 | 5,500 | 14,192 | D +0.33 | Even |
| Independence County | R +60.8 | R +55.1 | R +47 to R +63 | 3,126 | 10,783 | 14,196 | R +0.26 | D +0.37 |
| Cleburne County | R +69.0 | R +61.9 | R +54 to R +70 | 2,380 | 10,110 | 12,694 | R +0.33 | D +0.81 |
| Hot Spring County | R +53.2 | R +46.4 | R +39 to R +54 | 3,218 | 8,795 | 12,238 | R +0.28 | D +0.27 |
| Carroll County | R +32.4 | R +26.8 | R +19 to R +35 | 4,124 | 7,145 | 11,509 | R +0.35 | D +0.40 |
| Mississippi County | R +32.2 | R +16.6 | R +9 to R +25 | 4,110 | 5,747 | 10,028 | Even | Even |
| Johnson County | R +52.5 | R +46.2 | R +38 to R +54 | 2,412 | 6,553 | 9,148 | R +0.24 | D +0.27 |
| Conway County | R +41.3 | R +34.7 | R +27 to R +43 | 2,760 | 5,699 | 8,647 | R +0.28 | D +0.42 |
| Grant County | R +70.0 | R +57.9 | R +50 to R +66 | 1,726 | 6,471 | 8,329 | R +0.23 | D +0.72 |
| Polk County | R +71.8 | R +64.7 | R +57 to R +73 | 1,422 | 6,640 | 8,207 | R +0.26 | D +0.41 |
| Ouachita County | R +19.4 | R +4.9 | D +3 to R +13 | 3,823 | 4,218 | 8,181 | Even | Even |
| Logan County | R +63.5 | R +55.8 | R +48 to R +64 | 1,775 | 6,260 | 8,199 | R +0.30 | D +0.47 |
| Madison County | R +59.6 | R +51.2 | R +43 to R +59 | 1,933 | 5,994 | 8,057 | R +0.17 | D +1.48 |
| Columbia County | R +37.0 | R +23.2 | R +15 to R +31 | 2,982 | 4,782 | 7,880 | D +0.17 | Even |
| Clark County | R +20.9 | R +14.2 | R +7 to R +22 | 3,313 | 4,408 | 7,889 | D +0.13 | Even |
| Marion County | R +61.2 | R +55.4 | R +47 to R +64 | 1,704 | 5,932 | 7,758 | R +0.42 | D +0.87 |
| Van Buren County | R +61.5 | R +54.8 | R +47 to R +63 | 1,662 | 5,691 | 7,489 | R +0.39 | D +0.60 |
| Sharp County | R +63.9 | R +59.7 | R +51 to R +68 | 1,479 | 5,861 | 7,479 | R +0.36 | D +0.90 |
| Franklin County | R +63.8 | R +57.7 | R +50 to R +66 | 1,460 | 5,450 | 7,050 | R +0.29 | D +0.67 |
| Poinsett County | R +64.5 | R +58.8 | R +51 to R +67 | 1,385 | 5,343 | 6,841 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Randolph County | R +65.0 | R +60.1 | R +52 to R +68 | 1,289 | 5,174 | 6,594 | R +0.30 | D +0.35 |
| Ashley County | R +48.7 | R +42.2 | R +34 to R +50 | 1,861 | 4,584 | 6,552 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Drew County | R +34.4 | R +25.4 | R +18 to R +33 | 2,330 | 3,913 | 6,349 | Even | Even |
| Yell County | R +61.9 | R +53.4 | R +45 to R +61 | 1,436 | 4,725 | 6,277 | R +0.23 | D +0.09 |
| Cross County | R +48.6 | R +40.9 | R +33 to R +49 | 1,782 | 4,253 | 6,156 | R +0.18 | D +0.14 |
| Izard County | R +67.3 | R +60.3 | R +52 to R +68 | 1,175 | 4,748 | 6,039 | R +0.31 | D +1.08 |
| Stone County | R +63.1 | R +58.8 | R +51 to R +67 | 1,203 | 4,635 | 5,957 | R +0.36 | D +0.65 |
| Hempstead County | R +40.5 | R +24.3 | R +16 to R +32 | 2,126 | 3,492 | 5,724 | Even | Even |
| Lawrence County | R +65.4 | R +59.6 | R +51 to R +68 | 1,123 | 4,432 | 5,670 | R +0.29 | D +0.17 |
| St. Francis County | D +0.8 | D +17.4 | D +26 to D +9 | 3,237 | 2,279 | 5,618 | D +0.26 | Even |
| Arkansas County | R +44.9 | R +35.2 | R +27 to R +43 | 1,627 | 3,394 | 5,113 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Fulton County | R +63.4 | R +56.3 | R +48 to R +64 | 1,068 | 3,822 | 4,981 | R +0.38 | D +0.72 |
| Little River County | R +55.1 | R +46.4 | R +39 to R +55 | 1,249 | 3,413 | 4,738 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Jackson County | R +49.6 | R +44.1 | R +36 to R +52 | 1,301 | 3,352 | 4,736 | R +0.24 | D +0.08 |
| Clay County | R +62.8 | R +57.8 | R +50 to R +66 | 978 | 3,660 | 4,720 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Sevier County | R +62.8 | R +53.6 | R +45 to R +62 | 1,074 | 3,557 | 4,712 | Even | D +0.05 |
| Perry County | R +58.8 | R +49.0 | R +41 to R +57 | 1,148 | 3,353 | 4,595 | R +0.33 | D +0.49 |
| Howard County | R +47.4 | R +38.0 | R +30 to R +46 | 1,308 | 2,909 | 4,283 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Phillips County | D +13.5 | D +29.3 | D +38 to D +20 | 2,714 | 1,485 | 4,270 | D +0.33 | Even |
| Pike County | R +74.0 | R +65.4 | R +57 to R +73 | 723 | 3,452 | 4,229 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Searcy County | R +73.2 | R +66.2 | R +58 to R +74 | 627 | 3,081 | 3,761 | R +0.26 | D +0.26 |
| Montgomery County | R +64.5 | R +58.3 | R +50 to R +66 | 735 | 2,795 | 3,597 | R +0.36 | D +0.42 |
| Newton County | R +65.3 | R +61.5 | R +53 to R +70 | 680 | 2,850 | 3,590 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Scott County | R +74.5 | R +67.4 | R +59 to R +76 | 538 | 2,768 | 3,356 | R +0.21 | D +0.40 |
| Lincoln County | R +51.0 | R +35.6 | R +28 to R +44 | 1,059 | 2,231 | 3,345 | Even | Even |
| Cleveland County | R +68.5 | R +58.3 | R +50 to R +66 | 658 | 2,499 | 3,203 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Chicot County | D +4.0 | D +18.9 | D +27 to D +11 | 1,841 | 1,256 | 3,133 | D +0.26 | Even |
| Desha County | R +4.9 | D +9.7 | D +18 to D +1 | 1,666 | 1,371 | 3,090 | D +0.14 | Even |
| Prairie County | R +66.8 | R +60.3 | R +52 to R +68 | 587 | 2,374 | 3,003 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Bradley County | R +39.4 | R +24.9 | R +17 to R +33 | 1,104 | 1,837 | 2,981 | R +0.05 | Even |
| Nevada County | R +40.4 | R +29.9 | R +22 to R +38 | 943 | 1,749 | 2,741 | R +0.14 | Even |
| Lee County | D +3.6 | D +19.0 | D +28 to D +10 | 1,363 | 927 | 2,341 | D +0.23 | Even |
| Monroe County | R +16.0 | R +1.5 | D +7 to R +10 | 1,064 | 1,097 | 2,200 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Dallas County | R +30.0 | R +15.8 | R +8 to R +24 | 879 | 1,210 | 2,127 | R +0.05 | Even |
| Lafayette County | R +39.0 | R +27.4 | R +19 to R +36 | 756 | 1,326 | 2,115 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Woodruff County | R +33.1 | R +26.1 | R +18 to R +34 | 756 | 1,291 | 2,085 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Calhoun County | R +63.1 | R +56.2 | R +48 to R +64 | 435 | 1,550 | 2,020 | R +0.17 | Even |