2028 forecast · Alabama · Democratic primary

Alabama Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins >99% of runs

54.5%Harris's projected share

524,801Projected primary votes

2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	54.5%	286,217	>99%	45.9%
Buttigieg	9.0%	47,355	<1%	4.2%
Ossoff	8.0%	41,950	<1%	5.9%
Newsom	7.1%	37,478	<1%	5.2%
Ocasio-Cortez	4.3%	22,375	<1%	1.6%
Kelly	2.8%	14,502	<1%	4.0%
Shapiro	1.8%	9,309	<1%	2.8%
Beshear	0.8%	4,368	<1%	3.5%
Whitmer	0.4%	2,078	<1%	0.5%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Alabama votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

HarrisButtigieg

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Alabama

Progressive32%

Working class and union20%

Institutional17%

Democratic leaning independents15%

Civil rights coalition7%

Moderate independents3%

Black 42.3%, Hispanic 1.5%, Asian and other 1.4%, under 30 12.8%, 65 and up 30.5%, college graduates 35.9%, women 54.6%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 452,093 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 524,801 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Jefferson County	97,159	Harris	67.3%	Ossoff	8.4%
Madison County	50,600	Harris	42.0%	Buttigieg	13.6%
Mobile County	47,846	Harris	66.7%	Ossoff	6.9%
Montgomery County	35,600	Harris	78.6%	Ossoff	4.5%
Shelby County	22,707	Harris	28.5%	Buttigieg	22.2%
Tuscaloosa County	21,765	Harris	53.0%	Ossoff	12.0%
Baldwin County	19,099	Harris	25.6%	Buttigieg	24.8%
Lee County	16,938	Harris	39.2%	Ossoff	12.6%
Limestone County	10,158	Harris	37.7%	Buttigieg	15.4%
Calhoun County	9,513	Harris	48.5%	Ossoff	9.8%
Morgan County	9,220	Harris	37.5%	Buttigieg	15.3%
Houston County	9,153	Harris	57.8%	Ossoff	7.5%
Elmore County	7,938	Harris	47.6%	Ossoff	10.5%
Talladega County	7,864	Harris	63.9%	Ossoff	8.3%
Etowah County	7,798	Harris	43.5%	Buttigieg	11.7%
Lauderdale County	7,128	Harris	26.8%	Buttigieg	22.5%
Russell County	6,753	Harris	75.4%	Ossoff	5.8%
Dallas County	6,656	Harris	82.6%	Ossoff	3.3%
St. Clair County	6,480	Harris	34.2%	Buttigieg	16.3%
Autauga County	5,611	Harris	44.9%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Marshall County	5,113	Buttigieg	25.4%	Harris	21.4%
Colbert County	4,990	Harris	43.1%	Buttigieg	11.9%
Cullman County	4,743	Buttigieg	27.0%	Harris	20.0%
Tallapoosa County	3,982	Harris	55.4%	Ossoff	8.7%
Coffee County	3,890	Harris	43.5%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Chambers County	3,880	Harris	71.4%	Ossoff	6.7%
Walker County	3,820	Harris	28.6%	Buttigieg	19.8%
Macon County	3,746	Harris	82.5%	Ossoff	3.7%
Clarke County	3,587	Harris	75.3%	Ossoff	5.3%
Dale County	3,546	Harris	48.0%	Ossoff	9.8%
DeKalb County	3,539	Buttigieg	23.4%	Harris	22.4%
Pike County	3,481	Harris	59.3%	Ossoff	10.4%
Escambia County	3,303	Harris	67.0%	Ossoff	6.7%
Marengo County	3,270	Harris	77.6%	Ossoff	4.7%
Blount County	3,093	Buttigieg	24.2%	Harris	22.0%
Barbour County	3,000	Harris	76.4%	Ossoff	5.3%
Jackson County	2,896	Harris	24.1%	Buttigieg	23.2%
Monroe County	2,798	Harris	75.3%	Ossoff	5.1%
Chilton County	2,724	Harris	35.1%	Buttigieg	14.9%
Hale County	2,663	Harris	79.5%	Ossoff	4.5%
Lowndes County	2,540	Harris	83.8%	Ossoff	2.6%
Pickens County	2,465	Harris	73.0%	Ossoff	5.8%
Lawrence County	2,460	Harris	38.0%	Buttigieg	13.9%
Butler County	2,437	Harris	76.0%	Ossoff	4.7%
Sumter County	2,403	Harris	81.0%	Ossoff	4.5%
Covington County	2,359	Harris	38.2%	Buttigieg	14.7%
Wilcox County	2,204	Harris	82.7%	Ossoff	3.0%
Perry County	1,948	Harris	81.8%	Ossoff	3.9%
Greene County	1,894	Harris	84.5%	Ossoff	2.4%
Henry County	1,887	Harris	59.3%	Ossoff	7.3%
Choctaw County	1,848	Harris	72.4%	Ossoff	6.5%
Conecuh County	1,818	Harris	76.3%	Ossoff	4.7%
Bullock County	1,809	Harris	83.8%	Ossoff	2.5%
Randolph County	1,766	Harris	44.3%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Washington County	1,665	Harris	58.5%	Ossoff	9.6%
Geneva County	1,584	Harris	36.6%	Buttigieg	14.9%
Cherokee County	1,574	Harris	27.4%	Buttigieg	20.8%
Bibb County	1,560	Harris	55.3%	Ossoff	8.1%
Franklin County	1,555	Harris	27.5%	Buttigieg	19.0%
Marion County	1,504	Harris	27.3%	Buttigieg	20.6%
Crenshaw County	1,252	Harris	57.2%	Ossoff	8.1%
Coosa County	1,169	Harris	65.9%	Ossoff	7.2%
Fayette County	1,155	Harris	39.2%	Buttigieg	13.7%
Winston County	1,149	Buttigieg	25.5%	Harris	21.3%
Clay County	996	Harris	43.0%	Buttigieg	11.6%
Lamar County	900	Harris	40.3%	Buttigieg	13.2%
Cleburne County	850	Harris	26.5%	Buttigieg	20.9%

OssoffFavorite, wins 72% of runs

27.5%Ossoff's projected share