2028 forecast · Alabama · President · 9 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry Alabama.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +21.5 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +14.6 and R +28.4. Projected votes: 895,130 Democratic, 1,385,456 Republican, 25,365 other, 2,305,951 in all.
<1%Democratic win chance
R +21.52028 margin
R +30.92024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +30.9 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +16.7 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.3 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.7 toward D | 4.9% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.5 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +21.5 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 2,256,352 in 2024, 2,305,952 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Alabama| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| BeshearHYP | R +19.9 | <1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +19.9 | <1% |
| Buttigieg | R +20.6 | <1% |
| Harris | R +20.7 | <1% |
| BookerHYP | R +20.7 | <1% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +20.7 | <1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +21.0 | <1% |
| CooperHYP | R +21.0 | <1% |
| WalzHYP | R +21.1 | <1% |
| Cuban | R +21.2 | <1% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +21.4 | <1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +21.5 | <1% |
| BrownHYP | R +21.5 | <1% |
| Ossoff | R +21.6 | <1% |
| KellyHYP | R +21.6 | <1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +21.9 | <1% |
| PolisHYP | R +21.9 | <1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +21.9 | <1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +22.0 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +22.1 | <1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +22.1 | <1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +22.3 | <1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +22.3 | <1% |
| MooreHYP | R +22.4 | <1% |
| Shapiro | R +22.6 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +24.7 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +27.0 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Alabama| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +18.2 | <1% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +19.4 | <1% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +19.5 | <1% |
| KempHYP | R +19.9 | <1% |
| Rubio | R +20.0 | <1% |
| CottonHYP | R +20.1 | <1% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +20.1 | <1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +20.2 | <1% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +20.3 | <1% |
| CruzHYP | R +20.8 | <1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +21.0 | <1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +21.3 | <1% |
| Vance | R +21.5 | <1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
67 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson County | D +10.6 | D +27.6 | D +36 to D +20 | 184,605 | 104,672 | 293,016 | D +0.35 | Even |
| Madison County | R +9.1 | D +0.2 | D +8 to R +8 | 105,938 | 105,511 | 215,072 | D +0.09 | D +0.56 |
| Mobile County | R +16.6 | R +7.8 | D +0 to R +16 | 78,764 | 92,132 | 172,819 | D +0.16 | Even |
| Baldwin County | R +58.7 | R +47.4 | R +40 to R +55 | 34,538 | 96,806 | 132,777 | R +0.28 | D +1.91 |
| Shelby County | R +41.3 | R +30.1 | R +22 to R +38 | 41,152 | 76,667 | 119,357 | R +0.14 | D +0.69 |
| Tuscaloosa County | R +20.6 | R +13.0 | R +5 to R +21 | 39,496 | 51,301 | 91,791 | D +0.31 | D +0.38 |
| Montgomery County | D +31.1 | D +51.4 | D +60 to D +43 | 65,766 | 21,127 | 87,893 | D +0.59 | Even |
| Lee County | R +28.2 | R +18.8 | R +11 to R +27 | 31,857 | 46,596 | 79,554 | D +0.19 | D +0.62 |
| Limestone County | R +44.4 | R +35.2 | R +27 to R +43 | 19,399 | 40,440 | 60,633 | R +0.12 | D +1.79 |
| Morgan County | R +53.1 | R +47.9 | R +40 to R +56 | 13,771 | 39,107 | 53,487 | R +0.19 | D +0.33 |
| Calhoun County | R +45.1 | R +41.0 | R +33 to R +49 | 14,089 | 33,695 | 48,296 | R +0.11 | Even |
| St. Clair County | R +64.6 | R +58.6 | R +51 to R +67 | 9,337 | 35,818 | 45,556 | R +0.20 | D +1.06 |
| Etowah County | R +56.1 | R +53.2 | R +45 to R +61 | 10,503 | 34,343 | 45,271 | R +0.22 | D +0.15 |
| Cullman County | R +81.1 | R +71.6 | R +63 to R +80 | 6,310 | 38,191 | 44,901 | R +0.17 | D +1.24 |
| Lauderdale County | R +52.0 | R +46.9 | R +39 to R +55 | 11,722 | 32,413 | 44,648 | R +0.26 | D +0.56 |
| Houston County | R +48.2 | R +39.4 | R +31 to R +47 | 13,346 | 30,688 | 44,481 | R +0.08 | D +0.39 |
| Elmore County | R +52.5 | R +44.8 | R +37 to R +53 | 11,727 | 30,731 | 42,881 | R +0.08 | D +0.52 |
| Marshall County | R +72.2 | R +65.1 | R +57 to R +73 | 7,147 | 33,766 | 41,293 | R +0.19 | D +0.88 |
| Talladega County | R +33.9 | R +27.9 | R +20 to R +36 | 11,629 | 20,614 | 32,476 | Even | Even |
| DeKalb County | R +74.4 | R +67.7 | R +60 to R +76 | 4,776 | 24,785 | 29,814 | R +0.19 | D +0.54 |
| Walker County | R +72.3 | R +67.5 | R +59 to R +76 | 4,698 | 24,259 | 29,190 | R +0.22 | D +0.07 |
| Autauga County | R +46.7 | R +39.5 | R +32 to R +47 | 8,754 | 20,163 | 29,241 | R +0.08 | D +0.59 |
| Blount County | R +81.6 | R +73.6 | R +65 to R +82 | 3,681 | 24,243 | 28,147 | R +0.16 | D +0.41 |
| Colbert County | R +46.8 | R +42.9 | R +35 to R +51 | 7,735 | 19,343 | 27,358 | R +0.24 | D +0.51 |
| Jackson County | R +71.9 | R +70.0 | R +62 to R +78 | 3,506 | 19,845 | 23,555 | R +0.25 | D +0.65 |
| Coffee County | R +58.4 | R +50.6 | R +43 to R +58 | 5,641 | 17,197 | 23,062 | R +0.11 | D +0.82 |
| Chilton County | R +72.5 | R +66.0 | R +58 to R +74 | 3,452 | 16,836 | 20,434 | R +0.14 | D +0.90 |
| Russell County | D +1.7 | D +18.2 | D +27 to D +10 | 11,986 | 8,295 | 20,481 | D +0.32 | Even |
| Tallapoosa County | R +49.9 | R +46.5 | R +39 to R +55 | 5,136 | 14,069 | 19,350 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Dale County | R +52.7 | R +46.3 | R +38 to R +54 | 5,097 | 13,878 | 19,155 | R +0.10 | D +0.23 |
| Covington County | R +72.8 | R +68.4 | R +60 to R +77 | 2,641 | 14,073 | 16,822 | R +0.21 | D +0.35 |
| Lawrence County | R +62.7 | R +59.5 | R +51 to R +68 | 3,262 | 12,862 | 16,259 | R +0.15 | D +0.41 |
| Escambia County | R +46.6 | R +39.9 | R +31 to R +48 | 4,396 | 10,224 | 14,725 | Even | D +0.07 |
| Dallas County | D +32.7 | D +50.2 | D +60 to D +41 | 10,587 | 3,507 | 14,201 | D +0.55 | Even |
| Pike County | R +25.3 | R +18.0 | R +10 to R +26 | 5,694 | 8,196 | 14,017 | D +0.44 | D +0.15 |
| Chambers County | R +23.4 | R +14.2 | R +6 to R +23 | 5,814 | 7,731 | 13,664 | D +0.10 | D +0.09 |
| Marion County | R +82.2 | R +78.4 | R +70 to R +87 | 1,410 | 11,629 | 13,139 | R +0.17 | D +0.05 |
| Cherokee County | R +75.9 | R +74.4 | R +66 to R +83 | 1,668 | 11,360 | 13,122 | R +0.24 | D +1.07 |
| Geneva County | R +77.4 | R +72.7 | R +64 to R +81 | 1,684 | 10,658 | 12,431 | R +0.16 | D +0.63 |
| Franklin County | R +73.8 | R +67.7 | R +60 to R +76 | 1,901 | 9,867 | 11,876 | R +0.16 | D +0.24 |
| Clarke County | R +17.1 | R +6.7 | D +2 to R +15 | 5,311 | 6,071 | 11,451 | D +0.28 | Even |
| Randolph County | R +65.2 | R +63.0 | R +55 to R +71 | 2,086 | 9,206 | 11,365 | R +0.16 | D +0.89 |
| Winston County | R +84.0 | R +80.0 | R +72 to R +88 | 1,086 | 9,782 | 10,942 | R +0.17 | D +0.38 |
| Henry County | R +51.1 | R +43.9 | R +36 to R +52 | 2,681 | 6,878 | 9,626 | R +0.13 | D +0.95 |
| Barbour County | R +14.8 | R +1.3 | D +8 to R +10 | 4,627 | 4,749 | 9,450 | D +0.26 | Even |
| Monroe County | R +23.3 | R +13.3 | R +4 to R +22 | 4,040 | 5,281 | 9,384 | D +0.20 | Even |
| Marengo County | R +3.8 | D +10.6 | D +19 to D +2 | 5,065 | 4,093 | 9,217 | D +0.44 | Even |
| Bibb County | R +64.8 | R +59.7 | R +51 to R +68 | 1,833 | 7,262 | 9,161 | R +0.10 | D +0.05 |
| Pickens County | R +23.5 | R +12.7 | R +4 to R +21 | 3,690 | 4,767 | 8,512 | D +0.20 | Even |
| Washington County | R +55.6 | R +54.5 | R +46 to R +63 | 1,847 | 6,267 | 8,161 | Even | Even |
| Fayette County | R +72.5 | R +70.5 | R +62 to R +79 | 1,181 | 6,819 | 8,064 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Butler County | R +22.8 | R +11.7 | R +3 to R +21 | 3,491 | 4,420 | 7,964 | D +0.15 | Even |
| Cleburne County | R +84.1 | R +80.4 | R +72 to R +89 | 767 | 7,054 | 7,879 | R +0.15 | D +1.16 |
| Macon County | D +56.7 | D +76.8 | D +87 to D +67 | 6,680 | 875 | 7,616 | D +0.77 | Even |
| Hale County | D +6.9 | D +23.9 | D +33 to D +15 | 4,550 | 2,797 | 7,405 | D +0.50 | D +0.10 |
| Clay County | R +70.5 | R +66.2 | R +58 to R +75 | 1,108 | 5,457 | 6,608 | R +0.18 | D +0.12 |
| Lamar County | R +76.4 | R +75.5 | R +67 to R +84 | 799 | 5,738 | 6,579 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Crenshaw County | R +54.9 | R +51.9 | R +44 to R +60 | 1,528 | 4,820 | 6,385 | R +0.08 | D +0.07 |
| Choctaw County | R +24.0 | R +16.2 | R +8 to R +25 | 2,592 | 3,593 | 6,222 | D +0.13 | Even |
| Conecuh County | R +14.0 | R +4.8 | D +4 to R +14 | 2,671 | 2,942 | 5,655 | D +0.20 | Even |
| Sumter County | D +41.4 | D +60.2 | D +70 to D +50 | 4,162 | 1,034 | 5,233 | D +0.95 | Even |
| Lowndes County | D +37.5 | D +55.8 | D +66 to D +46 | 4,042 | 1,148 | 5,222 | D +0.60 | Even |
| Coosa County | R +43.5 | R +40.1 | R +32 to R +49 | 1,491 | 3,485 | 5,011 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Wilcox County | D +31.6 | D +47.7 | D +57 to D +38 | 3,579 | 1,268 | 4,873 | D +0.66 | Even |
| Perry County | D +42.9 | D +60.4 | D +70 to D +51 | 3,220 | 794 | 4,036 | D +0.71 | Even |
| Bullock County | D +46.1 | D +62.9 | D +73 to D +53 | 3,115 | 709 | 3,849 | D +0.41 | Even |
| Greene County | D +55.9 | D +74.4 | D +85 to D +64 | 3,238 | 475 | 3,734 | D +0.48 | Even |