2028 forecast · Virginia · Democratic primary

Virginia Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 92% of runs

36.4%Harris's projected share

1,407,667Projected primary votes

2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	36.4%	511,965	92%	26.5%
Buttigieg	16.6%	233,023	3%	10.0%
Newsom	10.4%	145,813	2%	8.4%
Ossoff	9.7%	137,122	4%	8.5%
Ocasio-Cortez	9.2%	128,773	<1%	6.1%
Kelly	2.8%	39,665	<1%	3.9%
Shapiro	2.5%	34,610	<1%	4.3%
Beshear	0.7%	10,304	<1%	2.6%
Whitmer	0.5%	7,279	<1%	0.7%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Virginia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

HarrisButtigiegOcasio-Cortez

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Virginia

Progressive33%

Institutional18%

Working class and union17%

Democratic leaning independents15%

Civil rights coalition8%

Moderate independents3%

Black 30.4%, Hispanic 5.7%, Asian and other 5.3%, under 30 14%, 65 and up 27%, college graduates 52.2%, women 54.7%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,323,693 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,407,667 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Fairfax County	195,047	Buttigieg	29.5%	Harris	15.5%
Prince William County	85,266	Harris	42.2%	Ossoff	12.6%
Chesterfield County	71,890	Harris	43.7%	Ossoff	11.4%
Virginia Beach city	71,524	Harris	35.7%	Buttigieg	14.1%
Loudoun County	71,127	Buttigieg	30.6%	Ocasio-Cortez	15.3%
Henrico County	67,986	Harris	50.3%	Ossoff	11.0%
Chesapeake city	45,411	Harris	56.0%	Ossoff	10.6%
Richmond city	44,579	Harris	51.1%	Ossoff	13.6%
Arlington County	43,256	Buttigieg	33.4%	Ocasio-Cortez	19.3%
Norfolk city	34,589	Harris	57.2%	Ossoff	12.3%
Newport News city	31,441	Harris	65.3%	Ossoff	10.0%
Alexandria city	30,161	Harris	26.3%	Buttigieg	20.6%
Hampton city	28,299	Harris	72.7%	Ossoff	7.6%
Stafford County	27,993	Harris	40.6%	Ossoff	12.5%
Spotsylvania County	24,027	Harris	40.1%	Buttigieg	11.9%
Suffolk city	21,825	Harris	68.4%	Ossoff	8.3%
Albemarle County	20,526	Buttigieg	33.0%	Ocasio-Cortez	14.4%
Portsmouth city	18,636	Harris	74.9%	Ossoff	6.2%
Hanover County	18,120	Buttigieg	24.1%	Harris	23.3%
James City County	15,059	Harris	25.2%	Buttigieg	24.9%
Roanoke city	14,636	Harris	49.0%	Ossoff	10.8%
Roanoke County	13,606	Buttigieg	26.1%	Harris	21.4%
Montgomery County	12,214	Buttigieg	27.4%	Ocasio-Cortez	25.3%
Frederick County	11,960	Buttigieg	25.1%	Harris	20.1%
Lynchburg city	11,796	Harris	38.9%	Ossoff	14.4%
York County	11,476	Harris	26.7%	Buttigieg	21.9%
Fauquier County	11,184	Buttigieg	25.9%	Harris	19.3%
Bedford County	10,309	Buttigieg	23.8%	Harris	23.8%
Rockingham County	10,056	Buttigieg	27.4%	Harris	17.6%
Augusta County	8,657	Buttigieg	23.8%	Harris	22.5%
Pittsylvania County	8,497	Harris	55.5%	Ossoff	8.9%
Charlottesville city	7,823	Buttigieg	23.8%	Ocasio-Cortez	22.4%
Danville city	7,605	Harris	75.4%	Ossoff	6.0%
Culpeper County	7,602	Harris	37.7%	Buttigieg	12.8%
Petersburg city	7,521	Harris	82.4%	Ossoff	3.6%
Isle of Wight County	7,229	Harris	50.5%	Buttigieg	8.9%
Campbell County	7,044	Harris	40.2%	Buttigieg	12.7%
Henry County	6,858	Harris	57.1%	Ossoff	8.6%
Franklin County	6,329	Harris	26.0%	Buttigieg	21.8%
Louisa County	6,073	Harris	33.3%	Buttigieg	17.1%
Halifax County	5,808	Harris	68.1%	Ossoff	7.2%
Prince George County	5,654	Harris	57.4%	Ossoff	12.1%
Caroline County	5,643	Harris	56.0%	Ossoff	10.5%
Orange County	5,619	Harris	31.4%	Buttigieg	17.1%
Manassas city	5,605	Harris	35.0%	Ossoff	12.8%
Goochland County	5,391	Harris	30.7%	Buttigieg	20.2%
Accomack County	5,351	Harris	58.5%	Ossoff	8.4%
Washington County	5,268	Buttigieg	29.4%	Harris	17.9%
Harrisonburg city	5,233	Ocasio-Cortez	31.5%	Buttigieg	17.8%
Mecklenburg County	5,141	Harris	65.7%	Ossoff	7.2%
Gloucester County	5,140	Harris	30.4%	Buttigieg	18.1%
Dinwiddie County	4,901	Harris	63.8%	Ossoff	8.6%
Warren County	4,843	Harris	23.9%	Buttigieg	21.4%
Shenandoah County	4,832	Buttigieg	23.6%	Harris	21.7%
Fredericksburg city	4,726	Harris	28.4%	Ocasio-Cortez	15.5%
Fluvanna County	4,661	Harris	29.7%	Buttigieg	18.9%
Powhatan County	4,553	Harris	25.9%	Buttigieg	22.2%
Amherst County	4,335	Harris	45.7%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Botetourt County	4,317	Buttigieg	26.5%	Harris	20.8%
New Kent County	4,288	Harris	32.2%	Buttigieg	17.0%
Fairfax city	4,183	Buttigieg	33.2%	Ocasio-Cortez	18.1%
King George County	4,175	Harris	35.7%	Buttigieg	14.4%
Staunton city	3,849	Buttigieg	23.4%	Harris	23.2%
Hopewell city	3,654	Harris	74.3%	Ossoff	6.0%
Pulaski County	3,554	Harris	26.0%	Buttigieg	20.9%
Winchester city	3,433	Harris	25.0%	Buttigieg	20.2%
Brunswick County	3,290	Harris	77.4%	Ossoff	4.9%
Prince Edward County	3,215	Harris	50.5%	Ossoff	14.8%
Westmoreland County	3,198	Harris	55.7%	Ossoff	8.6%
Salem city	3,148	Buttigieg	24.7%	Harris	19.4%
Southampton County	3,088	Harris	66.1%	Ossoff	7.0%
Tazewell County	3,071	Harris	24.0%	Buttigieg	22.7%
Waynesboro city	3,058	Harris	30.6%	Buttigieg	16.2%
Falls Church city	2,903	Buttigieg	43.1%	Ocasio-Cortez	15.5%
Greene County	2,886	Harris	24.6%	Buttigieg	22.4%
Wise County	2,863	Harris	27.2%	Buttigieg	19.2%
King William County	2,790	Harris	42.5%	Ossoff	11.3%
Rockbridge County	2,686	Buttigieg	30.6%	Harris	17.4%
Wythe County	2,622	Buttigieg	24.7%	Harris	21.6%
Carroll County	2,559	Buttigieg	25.4%	Harris	20.5%
Nelson County	2,527	Harris	28.7%	Buttigieg	20.8%
Williamsburg city	2,502	Ocasio-Cortez	28.6%	Buttigieg	16.5%
Buckingham County	2,487	Harris	67.7%	Ossoff	6.8%
Clarke County	2,450	Buttigieg	27.4%	Harris	19.9%
Smyth County	2,401	Buttigieg	23.7%	Harris	22.2%
Martinsville city	2,379	Harris	71.6%	Ossoff	7.6%
Northampton County	2,373	Harris	59.1%	Ossoff	7.3%
Page County	2,314	Harris	22.8%	Buttigieg	22.6%
Colonial Heights city	2,290	Harris	40.7%	Buttigieg	12.3%
Lancaster County	2,289	Harris	51.2%	Buttigieg	10.3%
Nottoway County	2,288	Harris	70.6%	Ossoff	6.6%
Northumberland County	2,264	Harris	46.2%	Buttigieg	11.9%
Manassas Park city	2,245	Harris	42.0%	Ossoff	13.2%
Appomattox County	2,137	Harris	45.6%	Buttigieg	10.3%
Sussex County	2,133	Harris	78.9%	Ossoff	4.5%
Essex County	2,126	Harris	69.1%	Ossoff	7.6%
Russell County	2,058	Harris	23.0%	Buttigieg	22.7%
Amelia County	2,003	Harris	54.2%	Ossoff	9.2%
Floyd County	1,983	Buttigieg	24.9%	Harris	21.3%
Madison County	1,928	Harris	29.2%	Buttigieg	19.3%
Greensville County	1,875	Harris	77.4%	Ossoff	5.2%
Lunenburg County	1,871	Harris	69.5%	Ossoff	6.3%
Middlesex County	1,775	Harris	39.8%	Buttigieg	14.9%
Charles City County	1,755	Harris	76.5%	Ossoff	4.8%
Franklin city	1,735	Harris	76.0%	Ossoff	5.5%
Surry County	1,717	Harris	72.7%	Ossoff	5.9%
Patrick County	1,704	Harris	30.2%	Buttigieg	18.3%
Radford city	1,701	Ocasio-Cortez	36.2%	Buttigieg	18.4%
Charlotte County	1,695	Harris	59.6%	Ossoff	7.9%
Cumberland County	1,689	Harris	62.9%	Ossoff	8.1%
Scott County	1,641	Buttigieg	23.6%	Harris	22.5%
Giles County	1,636	Buttigieg	23.2%	Harris	22.6%
Lee County	1,574	Harris	28.9%	Buttigieg	18.7%
Poquoson city	1,574	Buttigieg	31.0%	Harris	16.3%
Alleghany County	1,544	Harris	25.7%	Buttigieg	20.8%
Bristol city	1,544	Buttigieg	23.8%	Harris	22.3%
Buchanan County	1,431	Harris	27.9%	Buttigieg	19.4%
Grayson County	1,402	Harris	29.6%	Buttigieg	18.8%
Mathews County	1,335	Harris	33.3%	Buttigieg	17.5%
Richmond County	1,219	Harris	63.5%	Ossoff	7.0%
King and Queen County	1,215	Harris	59.4%	Ossoff	8.3%
Rappahannock County	1,185	Buttigieg	27.1%	Harris	19.8%
Emporia city	1,129	Harris	82.0%	Ossoff	3.4%
Dickenson County	1,111	Harris	24.1%	Buttigieg	21.4%
Lexington city	859	Ocasio-Cortez	32.5%	Buttigieg	19.6%
Covington city	586	Harris	44.0%	Buttigieg	10.3%
Bland County	567	Harris	27.6%	Buttigieg	20.5%
Galax city	553	Harris	25.8%	Buttigieg	20.9%
Buena Vista city	542	Buttigieg	25.6%	Harris	18.6%
Craig County	495	Buttigieg	25.7%	Harris	19.7%
Bath County	470	Harris	26.9%	Buttigieg	20.7%
Norton city	303	Buttigieg	23.4%	Harris	21.6%
Highland County	287	Buttigieg	32.5%	Harris	16.0%

OssoffFavorite, wins 50% of runs

22.0%Ossoff's projected share