2028 forecast · Ohio · Democratic primary

Ohio Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 78% of runs

30.8%Harris's projected share

1,165,216Projected primary votes

3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	30.8%	359,069	78%	17.8%
Buttigieg	16.0%	186,146	3%	6.7%
Newsom	13.3%	155,162	8%	9.2%
Ocasio-Cortez	10.7%	124,898	1%	5.7%
Ossoff	10.0%	117,012	7%	7.9%
Kelly	4.0%	47,163	2%	6.1%
Shapiro	2.8%	32,513	1%	5.4%
Beshear	0.8%	9,464	1%	4.4%
Booker	0.2%	2,158	<1%	3.1%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Ohio votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

HarrisButtigiegOcasio-Cortez

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Ohio

Progressive38%

Working class and union18%

Institutional15%

Democratic leaning independents13%

Civil rights coalition7%

Moderate independents3%

Black 19.4%, Hispanic 2%, Asian and other 2.4%, under 30 12.4%, 65 and up 31.4%, college graduates 40.9%, women 54.6%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 894,383 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,165,216 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Cuyahoga County	156,351	Harris	47.8%	Ossoff	11.0%
Franklin County	154,024	Harris	34.4%	Ossoff	12.7%
Hamilton County	103,680	Harris	38.9%	Newsom	12.2%
Summit County	60,576	Harris	28.9%	Buttigieg	16.5%
Montgomery County	59,185	Harris	40.2%	Newsom	11.8%
Lucas County	45,102	Harris	37.8%	Newsom	12.6%
Butler County	34,414	Harris	24.8%	Buttigieg	17.8%
Stark County	33,645	Harris	25.9%	Buttigieg	18.5%
Lorain County	32,175	Harris	26.2%	Buttigieg	17.9%
Delaware County	26,930	Buttigieg	29.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	15.7%
Warren County	24,427	Buttigieg	26.5%	Harris	16.2%
Lake County	24,037	Harris	21.7%	Buttigieg	21.6%
Mahoning County	23,594	Harris	35.0%	Buttigieg	13.7%
Medina County	18,529	Buttigieg	26.1%	Harris	17.0%
Clermont County	18,447	Buttigieg	24.1%	Harris	18.5%
Trumbull County	18,077	Harris	29.7%	Buttigieg	16.5%
Greene County	16,827	Buttigieg	23.3%	Harris	18.5%
Licking County	16,356	Harris	21.5%	Buttigieg	21.0%
Fairfield County	15,909	Harris	25.3%	Buttigieg	18.2%
Portage County	15,406	Buttigieg	21.4%	Harris	19.4%
Wood County	12,596	Buttigieg	24.1%	Ocasio-Cortez	18.8%
Clark County	11,196	Harris	30.7%	Buttigieg	15.7%
Geauga County	9,588	Buttigieg	28.2%	Harris	16.0%
Richland County	9,533	Harris	31.3%	Buttigieg	15.3%
Miami County	9,002	Buttigieg	22.5%	Harris	20.4%
Wayne County	8,224	Buttigieg	22.7%	Harris	19.2%
Allen County	7,682	Harris	31.5%	Buttigieg	14.7%
Erie County	7,679	Harris	26.4%	Buttigieg	18.6%
Ashtabula County	7,351	Harris	25.9%	Buttigieg	18.1%
Columbiana County	6,956	Harris	23.9%	Buttigieg	20.1%
Union County	6,438	Buttigieg	24.9%	Harris	16.6%
Tuscarawas County	6,413	Buttigieg	21.9%	Harris	21.2%
Hancock County	6,055	Buttigieg	23.5%	Harris	18.1%
Muskingum County	6,039	Harris	23.3%	Buttigieg	20.1%
Ross County	5,370	Harris	27.8%	Buttigieg	17.3%
Athens County	5,067	Ocasio-Cortez	24.4%	Buttigieg	22.1%
Sandusky County	4,999	Harris	24.3%	Buttigieg	18.6%
Jefferson County	4,866	Harris	26.3%	Buttigieg	18.4%
Knox County	4,792	Buttigieg	22.8%	Harris	19.2%
Belmont County	4,622	Harris	24.5%	Buttigieg	19.3%
Washington County	4,614	Buttigieg	22.4%	Harris	20.7%
Scioto County	4,582	Harris	23.3%	Buttigieg	20.0%
Marion County	4,379	Harris	28.5%	Buttigieg	16.2%
Pickaway County	4,375	Harris	23.1%	Buttigieg	19.9%
Ottawa County	4,090	Buttigieg	24.2%	Harris	19.7%
Huron County	4,060	Harris	21.5%	Buttigieg	19.8%
Seneca County	3,986	Harris	21.3%	Buttigieg	20.6%
Lawrence County	3,825	Harris	23.5%	Buttigieg	20.4%
Ashland County	3,804	Buttigieg	22.5%	Harris	20.3%
Fulton County	3,405	Buttigieg	21.4%	Harris	20.7%
Darke County	3,315	Harris	21.9%	Buttigieg	21.3%
Madison County	3,303	Harris	23.9%	Buttigieg	19.4%
Shelby County	3,266	Harris	22.0%	Buttigieg	20.7%
Auglaize County	3,237	Buttigieg	22.0%	Harris	20.7%
Logan County	3,210	Harris	22.0%	Buttigieg	20.2%
Defiance County	2,993	Harris	22.5%	Buttigieg	20.2%
Mercer County	2,968	Buttigieg	21.4%	Harris	21.2%
Champaign County	2,933	Harris	22.5%	Buttigieg	20.7%
Clinton County	2,884	Harris	21.7%	Buttigieg	20.6%
Preble County	2,839	Buttigieg	21.1%	Harris	20.7%
Crawford County	2,794	Harris	22.3%	Buttigieg	20.9%
Brown County	2,749	Harris	22.5%	Buttigieg	20.6%
Williams County	2,604	Harris	23.3%	Buttigieg	19.9%
Morrow County	2,555	Harris	21.6%	Buttigieg	21.5%
Highland County	2,530	Harris	22.7%	Buttigieg	20.9%
Guernsey County	2,460	Harris	23.5%	Buttigieg	20.1%
Putnam County	2,448	Buttigieg	23.5%	Harris	18.8%
Perry County	2,298	Harris	21.6%	Buttigieg	21.2%
Coshocton County	2,249	Harris	21.9%	Buttigieg	21.5%
Henry County	2,181	Harris	21.2%	Buttigieg	21.2%
Hocking County	1,967	Harris	22.3%	Buttigieg	19.7%
Van Wert County	1,941	Harris	22.1%	Buttigieg	20.9%
Jackson County	1,891	Harris	21.8%	Buttigieg	20.4%
Carroll County	1,872	Harris	22.8%	Buttigieg	20.6%
Hardin County	1,762	Buttigieg	21.2%	Harris	19.0%
Gallia County	1,743	Harris	22.2%	Buttigieg	21.1%
Fayette County	1,731	Harris	24.6%	Buttigieg	19.1%
Pike County	1,680	Harris	22.6%	Buttigieg	20.7%
Wyandot County	1,592	Buttigieg	22.2%	Harris	21.0%
Adams County	1,524	Harris	21.6%	Buttigieg	20.7%
Holmes County	1,436	Harris	22.6%	Buttigieg	20.0%
Meigs County	1,377	Harris	24.4%	Buttigieg	19.5%
Paulding County	1,245	Harris	21.9%	Buttigieg	21.1%
Harrison County	975	Harris	26.8%	Buttigieg	18.3%
Morgan County	953	Harris	25.9%	Buttigieg	18.7%
Monroe County	866	Harris	24.2%	Buttigieg	20.0%
Noble County	808	Harris	30.1%	Buttigieg	17.6%
Vinton County	758	Harris	24.1%	Buttigieg	19.9%

OssoffFavorite, wins 31% of runs

19.2%Ossoff's projected share