2028 forecast · West Virginia · Democratic primary

West Virginia Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 62% of runs

56.9%Harris's projected share

182,005Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	56.9%	103,514	62%	11.6%
Buttigieg	10.4%	19,005	13%	10.8%
Newsom	10.4%	18,960	12%	10.3%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.5%	10,066	6%	5.1%
Ossoff	5.1%	9,273	6%	4.7%
Kelly	0.4%	799	1%	10.7%
Shapiro	0.2%	364	<1%	6.2%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before West Virginia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in West Virginia

Progressive37%

Working class and union18%

Institutional17%

Democratic leaning independents12%

Civil rights coalition6%

Moderate independents3%

Black 5.8%, Hispanic 0.9%, Asian and other 1.4%, under 30 10.1%, 65 and up 39.5%, college graduates 34.6%, women 54.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 187,482 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 182,005 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Kanawha County	21,682	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Berkeley County	15,178	Harris	57.8%	Newsom	10.3%
Monongalia County	12,869	Harris	55.1%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Cabell County	9,898	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Jefferson County	8,896	Harris	56.9%	Newsom	10.4%
Wood County	8,646	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Harrison County	7,054	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Raleigh County	7,007	Harris	57.8%	Newsom	10.2%
Marion County	6,383	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Putnam County	6,260	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Ohio County	5,063	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Mercer County	5,003	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Fayette County	3,756	Harris	57.8%	Newsom	10.2%
Greenbrier County	3,539	Harris	57.0%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Wayne County	3,287	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Preston County	3,221	Harris	58.2%	Newsom	10.2%
Hancock County	2,911	Harris	57.0%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Marshall County	2,838	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Randolph County	2,618	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Jackson County	2,592	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Mineral County	2,582	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Brooke County	2,213	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Logan County	2,102	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Mason County	2,096	Harris	57.0%	Newsom	10.4%
Hampshire County	2,015	Harris	57.0%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Nicholas County	1,976	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Upshur County	1,970	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Morgan County	1,837	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Boone County	1,590	Harris	57.2%	Newsom	10.3%
Taylor County	1,541	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Mingo County	1,426	Harris	57.8%	Newsom	10.2%
Lewis County	1,387	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Hardy County	1,358	Harris	57.8%	Newsom	10.2%
Lincoln County	1,312	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Wyoming County	1,259	Harris	57.2%	Newsom	10.3%
Wetzel County	1,238	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Barbour County	1,209	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.4%
Summers County	1,207	Harris	58.0%	Newsom	10.2%
Monroe County	1,196	Harris	57.0%	Buttigieg	10.4%
McDowell County	1,173	Harris	59.3%	Newsom	9.9%
Roane County	1,124	Harris	57.0%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Braxton County	1,107	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.4%
Grant County	874	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Pocahontas County	831	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Tucker County	788	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Pendleton County	690	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Ritchie County	674	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.4%
Pleasants County	656	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.4%
Tyler County	653	Harris	57.0%	Newsom	10.4%
Clay County	599	Harris	57.2%	Newsom	10.3%
Gilmer County	594	Harris	59.5%	Newsom	9.9%
Webster County	533	Harris	57.1%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Calhoun County	525	Harris	57.4%	Newsom	10.3%
Doddridge County	507	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Wirt County	462	Harris	57.0%	Newsom	10.4%

NewsomFavorite, wins 30% of runs

26.3%Newsom's projected share