2028 forecast · Pennsylvania · Democratic primary

Pennsylvania Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 63% of runs

57.0%Harris's projected share

1,712,704Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	57.0%	976,084	63%	15.7%
Buttigieg	10.4%	177,723	13%	9.9%
Newsom	10.4%	177,400	12%	8.0%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.5%	94,766	6%	5.4%
Ossoff	5.1%	87,489	6%	6.6%
Kelly	0.4%	7,412	<1%	5.0%
Shapiro	0.2%	3,429	<1%	17.3%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Pennsylvania votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Pennsylvania

Progressive36%

Working class and union27%

Institutional25%

Civil rights coalition7%

Democratic leaning independents3%

Black 18.2%, Hispanic 4.2%, Asian and other 2.9%, under 30 12.7%, 65 and up 32.1%, college graduates 45.3%, women 54.1%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,595,508 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,712,704 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Philadelphia County	272,201	Harris	60.6%	Newsom	9.6%
Allegheny County	194,286	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Montgomery County	142,383	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Delaware County	99,236	Harris	58.2%	Newsom	10.1%
Bucks County	94,566	Harris	55.4%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Chester County	83,407	Harris	55.0%	Buttigieg	11.6%
Lancaster County	62,525	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
York County	52,169	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Lehigh County	48,642	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Berks County	48,241	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Northampton County	42,978	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Dauphin County	41,490	Harris	58.1%	Newsom	10.2%
Westmoreland County	40,890	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Luzerne County	33,383	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Cumberland County	33,093	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Erie County	32,149	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Lackawanna County	26,888	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Washington County	24,203	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Monroe County	23,065	Harris	58.2%	Newsom	10.1%
Butler County	22,729	Harris	55.2%	Buttigieg	11.5%
Beaver County	19,990	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Centre County	18,679	Harris	54.9%	Buttigieg	11.6%
Franklin County	14,757	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Lebanon County	14,071	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Schuylkill County	12,872	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Cambria County	12,548	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Fayette County	11,467	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Mercer County	11,439	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Adams County	11,231	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Blair County	10,976	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Lycoming County	10,612	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Lawrence County	8,775	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Northumberland County	7,677	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Pike County	7,596	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Indiana County	7,425	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Crawford County	7,386	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Carbon County	6,462	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Clearfield County	6,432	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Somerset County	6,125	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Columbia County	6,018	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Armstrong County	5,607	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Wayne County	5,485	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Bradford County	4,952	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Union County	4,479	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Venango County	4,474	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Perry County	4,058	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Huntingdon County	3,794	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.3%
Susquehanna County	3,634	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Bedford County	3,553	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Warren County	3,529	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Tioga County	3,308	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Jefferson County	3,276	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
McKean County	3,241	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Mifflin County	3,222	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Snyder County	3,196	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Clinton County	3,134	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Clarion County	3,034	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Greene County	2,913	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Elk County	2,750	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Wyoming County	2,611	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Montour County	2,020	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Juniata County	1,664	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Potter County	1,236	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Fulton County	1,006	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Sullivan County	601	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Forest County	531	Harris	59.2%	Newsom	9.9%
Cameron County	334	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.7%

NewsomFavorite, wins 29% of runs

26.3%Newsom's projected share