2028 forecast · Connecticut · President · 7 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Connecticut.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +27.7 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +34.6 and D +20.8. Projected votes: 1,120,093 Democratic, 633,649 Republican, 30,469 other, 1,784,211 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +27.72028 margin
D +14.82024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginConnecticut is modeled at the state level here, from its certified 2024 vote moved by the national swing.
D +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DDemocrats against Vance
Connecticut| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +29.1 | >99% |
| Harris | D +28.8 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +28.7 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +28.6 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +28.6 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +28.5 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +28.5 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +28.3 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +28.3 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +27.8 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +27.7 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +27.2 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +27.0 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +27.0 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +26.7 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +26.6 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +26.1 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +24.7 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Connecticut| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | D +28.1 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +27.8 | >99% |
| Vance | D +27.7 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +27.7 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +27.1 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.